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Oswalt to Texas

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Re: Oswalt to Texas

Postby slomo007 » Tue May 29, 2012 7:44 pm

I like him but to pick him up now in yahoo leagues means a wasted roster spot for 3-4 weeks. Not sure thats really worth it. :-?
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Re: Oswalt to Texas

Postby Ender » Tue May 29, 2012 10:07 pm

jfg wrote:Hmm. Not sure why he's being written off here. He got himself a long rest for his back and only has to pitch for 3 months that are relevant to fantasy owners. It's not like he's coming out of retirement at age 40, he's 33 years old. Unless his back acts up again, I'm fairly confident that he'll be at the very least a solid #3 starter on a fantasy squad and I think he made all the right moves to make sure he can pitch 4 solid months, but again, all we need are 3.


Moving to the AL, moving to Texas and his peripherals aren't what they used to be. I think you hope for a sub 4 ERA and don't expect it and his K rate probably drops back down to the low 7 per 9. He has his uses but I'm not falling over myself to go get him either.
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Re: Oswalt to Texas

Postby jfg » Tue May 29, 2012 11:53 pm

I wouldn't be depleting my budget right now if it were a league where I had to spend to get him, just because he's not going to be playing for another 3 weeks. I'm not all that worried about him pitching in Texas because of his GB%. It's not really a risk either, in both my leagues, he's was just sitting there and I had a player that was expendable in both. I'm more than willing to use a bench spot for 3 weeks to see what happens.

Four good, common sense reasons why he's a must add in my opinion, somebody else can throw out the stats why he's not a good add, I'd be interested in hearing:

1. He's not Ayebatter old. I think people forget that he's on the good side of 35. Of course, Ayebatter is on the wrong side of 65 (or the good side I guess if you like free coffee) but that's beside the point.
2. When healthy, he's proven to be a great pitcher, sometimes an ace. He wouldn't be coming back if he's not healthy and he only has to pitch for half a season. He could potentially be pitching for another contract.
3. Yes, he has to face the AL now, but a lot of the AL haven't faced him either and most of those teams probably aren't going to see him a second time.
4. He costs nothing but a clogged bench spot. It's no worse than waiting on a prospect- it's better because you have a pretty good idea of what' Oswalt's downside is.
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Re: Oswalt to Texas

Postby bayside » Wed May 30, 2012 12:38 am

how do people have room to burn a bench spot for a month on a guy with limited upside?
Seems like a huge waste in all but the deepest leagues.
In standard leagues there has to be better matchup plays on the wire every week for the next month that dont require a dead roster spot.
This is nothing like stashing away Harper, Trout, or Bauer earlier in the season.
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Re: Oswalt to Texas

Postby jfg » Wed May 30, 2012 12:58 am

One league I'm risking it with no bench at all but only because my pitching sucks and it's probably a big mistake, the other league is weekly lineup changes so no risk at all there.

But, where I'm differing from everyone is that I don't see his potential as limited. He's a year and a half removed from dominating in Philly for crying out loud. Is he going to do that again? Almost guaranteed no, but the potential is there. At the very least his upside is an anchor in your starting lineup. That's upside. His downside is that his back bothers him and can't pitch and he gives you mediocre ratios, few strikeouts and a few wins. I don't see his downside as flat out awful. His declining peripherals have been due to back problems not because he forgot how to pitch or is 40 years old. Will he still be bothered by the back? Possibly, but he hasn't pitched in a year and only needs to now for 3 months. I can't believe I'm the only one willing to take the risk here. There's a 9 page thread for what rookies are next to be called up, a good number of those guys will crash and burn and be sent back down... but nobody wants in on Oswalt. Baffling.
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Oswalt to Texas

Postby lastingsgriller » Wed May 30, 2012 1:02 am

bayside wrote:This is nothing like stashing away Harper, Trout, or Bauer earlier in the season.


Limited upside? In his last full season (2010) he had a 2.73 era, 1.03 whip, and 193 k's. If you think Trevor Bauer has that kind of upside for this year, you're out of your gord. The upside here is cy young caliber pitcher.

Not saying I expect numbers that good, but I'd your gonna talk about upside, he has recently proven he can be that good.
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Oswalt to Texas

Postby lastingsgriller » Wed May 30, 2012 1:10 am

jfg wrote:I can't believe I'm the only one willing to take the risk here.


I'm with you. I see the upside as tremendous. As long as he stays healthy you can safely assume 3.20/1.20 with 7 k/9. With any luck, he will be 2010 Oswalt, which is way better than anything you'll find on the wire all season.
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Re: Oswalt to Texas

Postby BigZ38 » Wed May 30, 2012 2:49 am

lastingsgriller wrote:
jfg wrote:I can't believe I'm the only one willing to take the risk here.


I'm with you. I see the upside as tremendous. As long as he stays healthy you can safely assume 3.20/1.20 with 7 k/9. With any luck, he will be 2010 Oswalt, which is way better than anything you'll find on the wire all season.


I'm in a league that's fairly deep and I dropped Henderson Alvarez to pick him up. I'll probably look to trade Oswalt to see if anyone will bite.

There was a similar mentality with Johan earlier this year, and through 59 innings, 60 ks, 2.75 ERA, 1.10 WHIP. He was going in the last round or undrafted in standard leagues. Johan was coming off a more severe injury and had missed way more time. Granted Oswalt doesn't have as much upside as Johan but I don't think anyone is crazy for finding a roster spot for him, especially if they need pitching.
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Re: Oswalt to Texas

Postby bayside » Wed May 30, 2012 3:00 am

lastingsgriller wrote:
bayside wrote:This is nothing like stashing away Harper, Trout, or Bauer earlier in the season.


Limited upside? In his last full season (2010) he had a 2.73 era, 1.03 whip, and 193 k's. If you think Trevor Bauer has that kind of upside for this year, you're out of your gord. The upside here is cy young caliber pitcher.

Not saying I expect numbers that good, but I'd your gonna talk about upside, he has recently proven he can be that good.

im assuming keeper league here... Oswalt is not even in the keeper conversation.
and if you really think his upside is what he did in Philly, prepare to be disappointed. his "upside" is mid 3's era, 7k/9, and a decent amount of wins. hes not having a career year in Texas after taking the first few months off.

I dont think its out of the question at all for Bauer to post better fantasy numbers than Oswalt, if they both begin their MLB seasons at roughly the same time.
And long term, I dont think anyone believes its even close.
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Re: Oswalt to Texas

Postby Skin Blues » Wed May 30, 2012 7:27 am

I don't see how being in Texas is such a bad thing any more. That division is terrible and he'll have a lot of games against Seattle and Oakland. The Rangers have the best team ERA in the league, with a pretty even home/road split, and it's not like they're full of aces. That said, you're probably only looking at a 3.75 ERA and mediocre K/9 once he's up to speed. In most leagues that's useful but not something I'd go clamouring to the waiver wire for.
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