Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Re: Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

Postby jcook3127 » Tue May 22, 2012 11:54 pm

Ender wrote:
1) All by itself, it is THE MOST important stat to predict the number of runs a team will score. They actually do have stats to prove it. If you look back at teams, not just last year, not 10 years ago, but look back at 100 years worth of data and OBP is highly correlated to runs scored. The vast majority of times that a team is near the top of the league in OBP, it is at the top of the league in Runs scored. If offense is up, like ti was 10 years ago, than all it means is that more games will be won 10-9 than are won by a score of 5-4. You want to play small ball? you want to bunt and hit and run because Home runs are down? You can't do it without getting men on base.



I agree with this in general but you really have to be careful with statements like this. One thing OBP is also strongly correlated with is SLG. IF you can't hit a HR pitchers just don't throw balls to you and you can't walk even if you understand the strike zone. Juan Pierre has an amazing contact rate and an elite understanding of the strike zone but he still just can't walk because nobody is afraid to throw him strikes. If you have a ton of power they will try to work around you and you will walk more, even an absolutely horrible hitter like Mark Reynolds gets walked a good bit because they will just try to let him get himself out and not challenge him. When you understand that OBP breeds SLG you are basically saying that OPS is where the value is in which case you have sort of debunked the OBP is what is important.


Yeah my thoughts exactly...I'm not sure OPS wouldn't correlate just as well to runs scored..
Why don't they just get a house that's already painted?
jcook3127
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor

User avatar

Posts: 646
Joined: 2 Feb 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

Postby lastingsgriller » Wed May 23, 2012 10:08 am

I love how the guy named "OBPLover" refuses to consider any point of view outside of his own OBP- centric point of view. Funny thing is, most likely he developed his irrational love for OBP from the book money ball, which is a book trying to get you to think different about the game, but he is still regurgitating theories relating to the game 10 years ago.

OBP- please don't just spout off unsupported facts such as, teams with the best OBP traditionally have won championships. 1) back up your statements with facts and links, this is the internet, it's easy. 2) duh. Of course good teams have high OBP, they also hit home runs, have high batting averages, score lots of runs, have a high ops, low era, low whip, etc. etc.. That's why they're good. Guess what? The '27 Yankees got on base alot. Youre going to have to find a way to show that OBP correlates to wins independently of other stats, otherwise, you haven't really made any point.
Follow me on the twit! @chadmiller16
lastingsgriller
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
Cafe WriterCafe Ranker
Posts: 3875
(Past Year: 167)
Joined: 21 Jan 2009
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: ..skipping the light fandango.

Re: Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

Postby OBPlover » Fri May 25, 2012 5:47 pm

lastingsgriller wrote:I love how the guy named "OBPLover" refuses to consider any point of view outside of his own OBP- centric point of view.


My name is based on my understanding and appreciation for this universally and eternally underappreciated stat. Not the other way around.

Funny thing is, most likely he developed his irrational love for OBP from the book money ball


OBP has been quoted for years. Long before moneyball. I actually developed my rational love for OBP by reading Bill James.

Tell me genius, what exactly is irrational about "loving" the most important statistic? If I called myself "battingaveragelover" it would be irrational.

which is a book trying to get you to think different about the game, but he is still regurgitating theories relating to the game 10 years ago.


The theories relating to the game, as described in Moneyball, were developed and popularized in the late 1970's and early 1980's which was when Bill James' writing gained popularity. OBP has nothing to do with "Moneyball" other than it was an undervalued stat.

I am the one thinking outside the box. The popular opinion seems to be that "Moneyball" theories only worked because it was implemented during a time of "steroidball" (Elevated offense) and that OBP is no longer an opportunity for teams to get better, cheaply. (Both these widely held views are Absolutely False)

OBP- please don't just spout off unsupported facts such as, teams with the best OBP traditionally have won championships.

I never said that.

1) back up your statements with facts and links, this is the internet,

You back up your own statements with facts and links. I am especially looking forward to reading about how OBP is not an important statistic. That should make for good reading.

it's easy. 2) duh. Of course good teams have high OBP, they also hit home runs, have high batting averages, score lots of runs, have a high ops, low era, low whip, etc. etc.. That's why they're good. Guess what? The '27 Yankees got on base alot. Youre going to have to find a way to show that OBP correlates to wins independently of other stats, otherwise, you haven't really made any point.



And just how am I supposed to do that??? As I said before, patient hitters tend to excel at other things. What have I said, that isn't simply common sense?

You have over 3000 posts but if you don't understand the importance of OBP,then you don't really know anything about statistics amd you really have no business providing advice for other people.
OBPlover
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 624
(Past Year: 133)
Joined: 1 Apr 2012
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

Postby bayside » Fri May 25, 2012 6:37 pm

OBPlover wrote:I am the one thinking outside the box. The popular opinion seems to be that "Moneyball" theories only worked because it was implemented during a time of "steroidball"

LOOOOOOOL
I cant even tell if youre serious or not
bayside
Major League Manager
Major League Manager


Posts: 1344
Joined: 14 Jul 2011
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: WHOOOOOS got it better than us?

Re: Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

Postby OBPlover » Fri May 25, 2012 9:04 pm

bayside wrote:
OBPlover wrote:I am the one thinking outside the box. The popular opinion seems to be that "Moneyball" theories only worked because it was implemented during a time of "steroidball"

LOOOOOOOL
I cant even tell if youre serious or not


Yeah I agree with you Bayside, ...

His comments are LOL

Look a this quote from before

Today's game is very different from the game 10 years ago. For various reasons there are a lot less runs. Beane knew that in 02 you needed to play for the big inning, because 3 or 4 runs wasn't winning baseball games. That's why OBP was so important to him. That's why he rarely stole. It was important to have runners on base when the HR or double happened.
OBPlover
Minor League Mentor
Minor League Mentor


Posts: 624
(Past Year: 133)
Joined: 1 Apr 2012
Home Cafe: Baseball

Previous

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: apz and 6 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Wednesday, Aug. 27
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

St. Louis at Pittsburgh
(12:35 pm)
Texas at Seattle
(3:40 pm)
Tampa Bay at Baltimore
(7:05 pm)
Washington at Philadelphia
(7:05 pm)
Boston at Toronto
(7:07 pm)
NY Yankees at Detroit
(7:08 pm)
Atlanta at NY Mets
(7:10 pm)
Chi Cubs at Cincinnati
(7:10 pm)
Cleveland at Chi White Sox
(8:10 pm)
Oakland at Houston
(8:10 pm)
Minnesota at Kansas City
(8:10 pm)
Milwaukee at San Diego
(9:10 pm)
LA Dodgers at Arizona
(9:40 pm)
Miami at LA Angels
(10:05 pm)
Colorado at San Francisco
(10:15 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact