Ender wrote:1) All by itself, it is THE MOST important stat to predict the number of runs a team will score. They actually do have stats to prove it. If you look back at teams, not just last year, not 10 years ago, but look back at 100 years worth of data and OBP is highly correlated to runs scored. The vast majority of times that a team is near the top of the league in OBP, it is at the top of the league in Runs scored. If offense is up, like ti was 10 years ago, than all it means is that more games will be won 10-9 than are won by a score of 5-4. You want to play small ball? you want to bunt and hit and run because Home runs are down? You can't do it without getting men on base.
I agree with this in general but you really have to be careful with statements like this. One thing OBP is also strongly correlated with is SLG. IF you can't hit a HR pitchers just don't throw balls to you and you can't walk even if you understand the strike zone. Juan Pierre has an amazing contact rate and an elite understanding of the strike zone but he still just can't walk because nobody is afraid to throw him strikes. If you have a ton of power they will try to work around you and you will walk more, even an absolutely horrible hitter like Mark Reynolds gets walked a good bit because they will just try to let him get himself out and not challenge him. When you understand that OBP breeds SLG you are basically saying that OPS is where the value is in which case you have sort of debunked the OBP is what is important.
Yeah my thoughts exactly...I'm not sure OPS wouldn't correlate just as well to runs scored..