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Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

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Re: Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

Postby Ender » Tue May 22, 2012 1:08 pm

A lot of managers still incorrectly value OBP I'm sure, just like they don't value defense enough and value veteran grittiness too much. I don't think it is to such a strong degree that you would call it a market inefficiency though. There has been a trend towards having pithers throw more strikes so they can go deeper into games over the past few years so it is going to make proving this one way or the other rather difficult since there is more to OBP than just the hitter.
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Re: Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

Postby bigh0rt » Tue May 22, 2012 1:12 pm

Ender wrote:A lot of managers still incorrectly value OBP I'm sure, just like they don't value defense enough and value veteran grittiness too much. I don't think it is to such a strong degree that you would call it a market inefficiency though. There has been a trend towards having pithers throw more strikes so they can go deeper into games over the past few years so it is going to make proving this one way or the other rather difficult since there is more to OBP than just the hitter.
This is the real crux of the argument here. People see OBP and immediately think "oh, okay, batters started viewing walks as a good thing, realizing that they're lengthening the game, making the pitcher throw more pitches, getting to bullpens, yadda yadda yadda" while turning a blind eye to the fact that pitchers also became privy of this and have since started to try and limit walks, so on and so forth. It's a much more dynamic happening than a lot of people seem to be trying to make it out to be over the last several pages; though far be it from me to stand in the way of anybody pretending to know what the hell they're talking about.
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Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

Postby lastingsgriller » Tue May 22, 2012 2:11 pm

while OBP was an underlying theme of moneyball, it was not the point. OBP was more valuable than most GMs thought in 2002. But that was 2002 and not today. If you are trying to apply moneyballs statistical theories to todays game, then you've not only missed the point, but you are going against the point entirely.

The thought process behind moneyball is that you have to be able to adapt to a changing game to stay ahead of the curve. If you want to operate on a small budget, you have to change the game instead of react to the games changes. If you are discussing theories from 10 years ago, you have no chance. So, forget all that stuff. Put it out of your mind. Stop discussing it. It's gone.

Today's game is very different from the game 10 years ago. For various reasons there are a lot less runs. Beane knew that in 02 you needed to play for the big inning, because 3 or 4 runs wasn't winning baseball games. That's why OBP was so important to him. That's why he rarely stole. It was important to have runners on base when the HR or double happened.

Its not the same now. having the big inning is not as important as just putting a number on the board. Because of that, stealing and run prevention have a greater importance. Thus, he adapts. You don't see the same oafy base cloggers out there, because he's no longer playing station to station baseball.

Stop discussing OBP. It is now as ancient of a tool for finding a winning baseball player as batting average is. If you want to discuss moneyball, you should be discussing which measure will help a team win in today's game. Not which measure will help a team win in 2002.
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Re: Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

Postby OBPlover » Tue May 22, 2012 5:35 pm

Oh so that's the new B.S. they are using to discredit Moneyball ?

OBP only works when there are lots of home runs being hit ?

It's about time they came up something new. The traditional baseball media just can't stand the fact that the cliches they have been spouting for decades have been slowly discredited.

I'm glad to see they haven't folded in the towel, nobody likes a quitter. Poor France.
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Re: Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

Postby bigh0rt » Tue May 22, 2012 5:43 pm

OBPlover wrote:Oh so that's the new B.S. they are using to discredit Moneyball ?

OBP only works when there are lots of home runs being hit ?

It's about time they came up something new. The traditional baseball media just can't stand the fact that the cliches they have been spouting for decades have been slowly discredited.

I'm glad to see they haven't folded in the towel, nobody likes a quitter. Poor France.
I really think that, despite both topics being mentioned within the pages of the book, you're combining two entirely separate entities here. I know this has been pointed out to you more than once and you've chosen to ignore it, and that's cool, so maybe this is just a waste of my time. But using the term 'Moneyball' and 'high OBP' interchangeably means you should go back and read the book again, because if that's all you took from it, you missed a good chunk of it. Again, I'm certainly not the one pointing this out.
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Re: Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

Postby OBPlover » Tue May 22, 2012 5:55 pm

There are still so many doubters,

OK so I'm going to present to you, why OBP is important:

1) All by itself, it is THE MOST important stat to predict the number of runs a team will score. They actually do have stats to prove it. If you look back at teams, not just last year, not 10 years ago, but look back at 100 years worth of data and OBP is highly correlated to runs scored. The vast majority of times that a team is near the top of the league in OBP, it is at the top of the league in Runs scored. If offense is up, like ti was 10 years ago, than all it means is that more games will be won 10-9 than are won by a score of 5-4. You want to play small ball? you want to bunt and hit and run because Home runs are down? You can't do it without getting men on base.

2) Outside from this, patience will help all other aspects of a hitters play. Getting deeper into counts? You want to see a BABIP comparison between 3-0 or 3-1 counts compared to swings in 1-2 or 0-2 counts? You want more home runs? Also easier to hit when hitters are ahead of the count.

But as they say in the infomercials "But wait there's more"

Let's talk about psychology. Now for SABR matricians. PSYCH is a dirty word. Why? Because stats can't prove or disporve anything psychological. But hell, you can't convince people who believe in the "human element" using logic.. So let's beat them at their own game. Or as I once heard.. "You can't convince French people to start liking Americans by talking to them in English".

3) Do you think with runners on base, that is good or bad for a pitcher's confidence? Hopefully, you will agree that it's kind of bad, knowing one mistake can cost them 3 runs as compared to 1.

4) What about the hitter at the plate? With runners on base, being held, there are more gaps in the infield, making it easier to score runs. This has to be good for a hitter's condifence.

5)Finally lets look at the umpires. Wheen there have already been a few walks given. Do you think the umpires will me or less likely to given borderline calls to the pitcher?
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Re: Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

Postby OBPlover » Tue May 22, 2012 6:24 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
OBPlover wrote:Oh so that's the new B.S. they are using to discredit Moneyball ?

OBP only works when there are lots of home runs being hit ?

It's about time they came up something new. The traditional baseball media just can't stand the fact that the cliches they have been spouting for decades have been slowly discredited.

I'm glad to see they haven't folded in the towel, nobody likes a quitter. Poor France.
I really think that, despite both topics being mentioned within the pages of the book, you're combining two entirely separate entities here. I know this has been pointed out to you more than once and you've chosen to ignore it, and that's cool, so maybe this is just a waste of my time. But using the term 'Moneyball' and 'high OBP' interchangeably means you should go back and read the book again, because if that's all you took from it, you missed a good chunk of it. Again, I'm certainly not the one pointing this out.


I haven't chosen to ignore anything. I understand Moneyball is about ineffeciencies. My points are a) That OBP is still being ignored. and b) Looking for inefficiencies from say defense or SBs is a waste of time. IF the New York Yankees decide to load up on a team with all high OBPs or for that matter all their hitters have sky high OPS and can put it 1 through 9 through it's batting order, than a team filled with overlooked Outfield defense stands no chance of competing. If the most important stats are properly analyzed and prioritized, there's no point looking for inefficiencies to get 1 or 2 extra wins a year. Your team is still going to lose.

All SABR metric stats and theories are still being largely ignored. Like someone said earlier, the next big thing is to stop overpaying for closers. Do you think that if teams understand the concepts of Moneyball, why do they continue to overpay for closers and yet they pay fair market value for OBP?
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Re: Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

Postby bayside » Tue May 22, 2012 7:30 pm

OBPlover, are you really SpecialNFK??
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Re: Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

Postby OBPlover » Tue May 22, 2012 7:56 pm

No, why do you ask?
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Re: Ummm, what happened to MoneyBall?

Postby Ender » Tue May 22, 2012 11:46 pm

1) All by itself, it is THE MOST important stat to predict the number of runs a team will score. They actually do have stats to prove it. If you look back at teams, not just last year, not 10 years ago, but look back at 100 years worth of data and OBP is highly correlated to runs scored. The vast majority of times that a team is near the top of the league in OBP, it is at the top of the league in Runs scored. If offense is up, like ti was 10 years ago, than all it means is that more games will be won 10-9 than are won by a score of 5-4. You want to play small ball? you want to bunt and hit and run because Home runs are down? You can't do it without getting men on base.



I agree with this in general but you really have to be careful with statements like this. One thing OBP is also strongly correlated with is SLG. IF you can't hit a HR pitchers just don't throw balls to you and you can't walk even if you understand the strike zone. Juan Pierre has an amazing contact rate and an elite understanding of the strike zone but he still just can't walk because nobody is afraid to throw him strikes. If you have a ton of power they will try to work around you and you will walk more, even an absolutely horrible hitter like Mark Reynolds gets walked a good bit because they will just try to let him get himself out and not challenge him. When you understand that OBP breeds SLG you are basically saying that OPS is where the value is in which case you have sort of debunked the OBP is what is important.
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