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Carlos Zambrano 2012...is he for real?

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Carlos Zambrano 2012...is he for real?

Postby gbill2004 » Tue May 08, 2012 7:15 am

Thoughts on him this season? Having a great start to the season...
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Re: Carlos Zambrano 2012...is he for real?

Postby Ender » Tue May 08, 2012 8:24 am

88.2% LOB, no he is not for real. He is having a better year than normal too but he is still a high 3 ERA guy.
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Re: Carlos Zambrano 2012...is he for real?

Postby GAC8666 » Tue May 08, 2012 8:26 am

Ender wrote:88.2% LOB, no he is not for real. He is having a better year than normal too but he is still a high 3 ERA guy.


I agree. I think he is for real in the sense that is isnt the go crazy, threaten retirement, move to the bullpen guy. But I do think that he has found his semi old form in Miami. But like Ender said 88% LOB is a stat that wont hold up.
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Re: Carlos Zambrano 2012...is he for real?

Postby Element » Tue May 08, 2012 8:35 am

ERA - 1.98
FIP - 3.59
xFIP - 3.74
LOB% - 88.2%

Velocity is also down, thought he was hitting 91-92 last night. doubtful this continues.
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Re: Carlos Zambrano 2012...is he for real?

Postby gbill2004 » Tue May 08, 2012 11:18 am

What is an average LOB%, for comparison sake?
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Re: Carlos Zambrano 2012...is he for real?

Postby GAC8666 » Tue May 08, 2012 11:25 am

Rating LOB%
Excellent 80%
Great 78%
Above Average 75%
Average 72%
Below Average 70%
Poor 65%
Awful 60%

From http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index. ... ching/lob/
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Re: Carlos Zambrano 2012...is he for real?

Postby Element » Tue May 08, 2012 11:35 am

gbill2004 wrote:What is an average LOB%, for comparison sake?


As a general rule of thumb, anything over 80% is lucky. Under 70% unlucky. Zambrano has a career LOB% of 74.4%.
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Re: Carlos Zambrano 2012...is he for real?

Postby chargerss24 » Tue May 08, 2012 12:26 pm

An Alice in Chains song comes to my mind. I Stay Away.

I'll have others gamble on the fool. The other shoe will drop...just you wait.
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Re: Carlos Zambrano 2012...is he for real?

Postby Ender » Tue May 08, 2012 5:11 pm

For a starter you expect something in the 65%-75% range. Relievers can be a bit higher than that. I'd guess that this is probably just a hot streak for Zambrano, worth owning while he is hot but at some point he'll start walking too many and it will become a problem.
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