Carlos Zambrano 2012...is he for real?

[gbill2004]

Thoughts on him this season? Having a great start to the season...

[Ender]

88.2% LOB, no he is not for real. He is having a better year than normal too but he is still a high 3 ERA guy.

[GAC8666]

88.2% LOB, no he is not for real. He is having a better year than normal too but he is still a high 3 ERA guy.

I agree. I think he is for real in the sense that is isnt the go crazy, threaten retirement, move to the bullpen guy. But I do think that he has found his semi old form in Miami. But like Ender said 88% LOB is a stat that wont hold up.

[Element]

ERA - 1.98
FIP - 3.59
xFIP - 3.74
LOB% - 88.2%

Velocity is also down, thought he was hitting 91-92 last night. doubtful this continues.

[gbill2004]

What is an average LOB%, for comparison sake?

[GAC8666]

Rating LOB%
Excellent 80%
Great 78%
Above Average 75%
Average 72%
Below Average 70%
Poor 65%
Awful 60%

From http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index. ... ching/lob/

[Element]

What is an average LOB%, for comparison sake?

As a general rule of thumb, anything over 80% is lucky. Under 70% unlucky. Zambrano has a career LOB% of 74.4%.

[chargerss24]

An Alice in Chains song comes to my mind. I Stay Away.

I'll have others gamble on the fool. The other shoe will drop...just you wait.

[Ender]

For a starter you expect something in the 65%-75% range. Relievers can be a bit higher than that. I'd guess that this is probably just a hot streak for Zambrano, worth owning while he is hot but at some point he'll start walking too many and it will become a problem.