This is going to be a great race. Obviously the Nats are on fire right now.. but the fact they arent scoring a ton of runs (14/16 in NL) worries me a bit. Now they are 1st in the NL (2.39 ERA) in pitching but its a young staff and who knows what is going to happen later in the year when they start getting to Starsburgs inning limit.
So right now.. I am going to take a shot and say the Marlins. They just have to much talent not to be better. With Buerhle, and if Johnson can right the ship and Zambrano have not been pitching poorly they have a chance.
I'm still picking Atlanta here as long as Hanson stays healthy. Philly's offense is miserable, can't trust Washington yet (also offense is shaky), Miami needs JJ to snap out of it, and the Mets are playing excellent with what they have but lack the firepower to win it. Atlanta's offense and bullpen look great, just need to hope Delgado/Minor/Teheran (when he gets called up) can keep their starting pitching afloat throughout the regular season.
I picked PHI with WAS wildcard before the season. After seeing how bad Philly's offense is and how much I believe I underrated Atlanta, I'm revising my pick to ATL with WAS wildcard. I'd pick the Nats to win the division but the injuries on offense are killing them. They got Zimmerman back but now they lose Werth for 12 weeks. Hopefully for their sake (and my fantasy team, who also lost Werth) Morse comes back strong in June.
Mets are playing above their heads, Marlins simply aren't that good IMO and Philly's pitching isn't quite good enough to overcome their atrocious offense. I think they'll make a push late in the year if Howard and Utley come back strong, but I see them falling a few games short of a wildcard.