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BABIP and other "luck factor study?

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BABIP and other "luck factor study?

Postby jfg » Sat May 05, 2012 12:31 am

Has Fangraphs or some site like it ever done a study on the percentage of players who actually bounce back (or regress) after starts skewed by abnormal rates? I know that these rates only tell part of the story, but I'm very interested to see an article with some kind of success rate on choosing bounce back candidates. Or some insight.
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Re: BABIP and other "luck factor study?

Postby Fantasy GM » Sat May 05, 2012 12:34 am

This would be an interesting piece. I think Josh Johnson's BABIP against is close to .500. That has to come down significantly...right? :-o
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Re: BABIP and other "luck factor study?

Postby Izenhart » Sat May 05, 2012 3:11 am

Fantasy GM wrote:This would be an interesting piece. I think Josh Johnson's BABIP against is close to .500. That has to come down significantly...right? :-o


Feels way higher than .500 Josh Johnson is a real live video game bug where every ball hit off him is uncatchable until it hits the ground.

There was a weird bug in Tommy Lasorda baseball for the genesis where every fly ball hit would go a bajillion miles an hour and circle the planet a dozen times (goes thru the top of the screen, camera angles back to the catcher, ball appears flying northward and continues at the speed of a rocket, flying over the stadium and off the screen again. Loop. Loop. Loop.) Groundballs would lazer beam straight to the outfield wall and stop. This is Josh Johnson.
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Re: BABIP and other "luck factor study?

Postby acb23 » Sat May 05, 2012 10:35 am

Even after last night, JJ still has 0 hrs allowed. This is getting ridiculous.

Also, I was watching him pitch on mlb gameday yesterday and, if the gun readings were correct, he was throwing in the 93-95 range which is just about right for him. He was also getting a lot of strikes on the outside corner called as balls (if gameday's locations are to be trusted).

As an owner, it's really hard for me to believe this is all just bad luck and keep from panicking. But all the numbers say to hold tight. Guess that's all we can do because I'm sure not trading him at his current value.
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