E5 hasn't dramatically increased his K% and he is not hitting a higher LD%. The things that stick out to me right now are his BABIP (.303 vs career .283) and his HR/FB (19.4% vs career 10.8%). While his HR/FB has fluctuated over his career there's nothing in his past numbers to suggest he can sustain that rate. Also while it might appear to an observer that he shortened his swing, his numbers don't indicate that he's somehow successfully changed his approach (which would lead to less K's or more LDs). He's a guy that posts a high FB rate, a high infield FB rate, and an average K% compared to major league averages. He's always been a guy that offers power with a lower batting average.
He should still offer power, though when his HR/FB regresses he may be a 25-30 HR guy and not the 40-50 HR that he's on pace for now. The best case, IMO besides just hoping he continues to get lucky, is that he has changed his approach and some of the contact being call FBs is borderline LDs and he could keep up a .280 or so average with that decent power. So he'd be a pretty good Util hitter in most 12+ team leagues (and some 10-team leagues), but not a guy you want starting for you at 1B in most leagues.
To answer the "is he for real?" question - if you expect him to hit .300 with 40+ HRs then he isn't and would need a crap-ton of luck to get there. If you expect him to hit .270+ or so with 30 HRs if he gets the at bats then yes I think he could be for real.
I don't think anybody is expecting 40-50 HRs. If he hits 30+ with a .280 BA I'd still says that's "for real" and not worth selling high. I think he'll thrive as the full-time DH. He had confidence and injury issues when he was in the field every day. He also seems to be less aggressive this season judging by his first pitch strike % being way down, allowing him to get into better counts and put a better swing on the ball. I have him in one league and I'm not selling high.
bayside wrote:Thats the thing though. Bautista was considered an obvious sell high throughout 2010... only he he never cooled off and actually got better and better as the season went on. Then last year he got off to a ridiculously hot start and again lots of people said sell, sell, sell. And again he proved that he had made real changes that lead to his great results.
Has E5 changed his approach at all? Is his swing any different? Or is he just doing the same old thing he always has but is having fortunate results so far? Thats what im trying to figure out.
It's the latter. He's in the middle of one of his many hot streaks that he's had in his career. I would expect him to go cold at some point.
Tennessee Jed wrote:Doesn't seem as though getting hit hurt him
BAM!!! Loving this guy. I agree with others though. I think he's definitely playing over his head at the moment. I think some of the "isn't out of the question" prognosticators are setting the bar pretty low though. It isn't out of the question that he hits 35-40 HRs. I think 25-30 is about where he'll realistically end up, not the ceiling if all goes well.
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by hot4tx » Mon Apr 30, 2012 11:58 am 
