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Edwin Encarnacion - is he for real?

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Edwin Encarnacion - is he for real?

Postby bayside » Mon Apr 30, 2012 12:01 am

A month into the season and the #1 fantasy 1B is not Mcab, Tex, Pujols, Votto, Fielder, or Gonzalez...
the #1 fantasy 3B is not MCab, Longoria, Bautista, Beltre, Arod, or Lawrie.

The current #1 player at both positions is none other than E5.

Is his production a result of a real change in approach and new found skill similar to what his teammate Bautista experienced over the last 3 years? or is he just getting lucky, and sure to revert to his old mediocre self in the coming months?

As of today he is slashing .310/.361/.644 and has 14 R, 7 HR, 4 SB, 20 RBI
As always, I immediately looked to his BABIP to see if that is the entire driving force for his early success.
Its .302 which not high at all and only a few points above his career mark.

And his BB% is only at ~5.5% which is much lower than his career rate of nearly 9%, so its possible we may see an even better OBP, and more runs scored as a result, in the future.

what do you guys think he does over the next 5 months?
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Re: Edwin Encarnacion - is he for real?

Postby mweir145 » Mon Apr 30, 2012 1:08 am

E5 is a very streaky hitter and in one of his massive power streaks right now. I don't think this is anything that unexpected or different from him.

But yeah, while I wouldn't expect him to keep it up, he should still be a good source of HRs and RBIs for the rest of the season (especially if Bautista actually starts to hit again in front of him).
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Re: Edwin Encarnacion - is he for real?

Postby jcook3127 » Mon Apr 30, 2012 1:12 am

Well the Homer pace is certainly going to come down, and the batting average should be expected to dip as well

But this probably will be his best season as a pro, a culmination of the potential that people have seen in him for the past several seasons.

That said an injury is always around the corner with Edwin..but if he stays healthy I don't think .290/28 HR/100 RBI/85 R is out of the question

If he ends with that he'll hit 21 more home runs and bat .286 the rest of the way, all in the heart of the Blue Jays order which means good RBI and decent Runs

I'm very pleased considering where I was able to draft him in one of my leagues
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Re: Edwin Encarnacion - is he for real?

Postby rjforlife » Mon Apr 30, 2012 3:19 am

jcook3127 wrote:
But this probably will be his best season as a pro, a culmination of the potential that people have seen in him for the past several seasons.




Why will this be his best season? He only averaged 105 games over the last 3 seasons, the max being last year when he played in 134 and still only hit 17 HR with a .272 average. Like Weir said, he's streaky, so sell high if you can get someone to bite, and certainly don't buy him. Last year he hit 14 HR in June/July/August and only 3 in April/May/September combined. It's a small example of a career trend of hot and cold, so ride the streak but sell it now if you can.
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Re: Edwin Encarnacion - is he for real?

Postby bayside » Mon Apr 30, 2012 4:39 am

Thats the thing though.
Bautista was considered an obvious sell high throughout 2010... only he he never cooled off and actually got better and better as the season went on.
Then last year he got off to a ridiculously hot start and again lots of people said sell, sell, sell. And again he proved that he had made real changes that lead to his great results.

Has E5 changed his approach at all? Is his swing any different? Or is he just doing the same old thing he always has but is having fortunate results so far? Thats what im trying to figure out.
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Re: Edwin Encarnacion - is he for real?

Postby rjforlife » Mon Apr 30, 2012 4:48 am

bayside wrote:Thats the thing though.
Bautista was considered an obvious sell high throughout 2010... only he he never cooled off and actually got better and better as the season went on.
Then last year he got off to a ridiculously hot start and again lots of people said sell, sell, sell. And again he proved that he had made real changes that lead to his great results.

Has E5 changed his approach at all? Is his swing any different? Or is he just doing the same old thing he always has but is having fortunate results so far? Thats what im trying to figure out.



Bautistas success is shading your judgement. In April of 2006, Chris Shelton hit 10 home runs. He ended up with 37 in his 300 career games played. That doesn't disprove Bautista or hint at Encarnacion's future, it just shows that good starts sometimes fade hard, and sometimes stick around. I only suggest that Baustista sticks in your head because he didn't fade, leading me to believe history is against Edwin. I'm not saying you should trade him for Bartolo Colon. But maybe a Stanton or Pujols owner is getting fed up and maybe you can work an Edwin/Player X combo to snag one of them while the price is very low.
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Re: Edwin Encarnacion - is he for real?

Postby AussieDodger » Mon Apr 30, 2012 4:52 am

I've been hopping on and off this train since 2006....I see no reason to stop now :-b :-b :*) :-S

From memory (which means no links/evidence), Edwin gets derailed by hand/arm injuries that he tries to play through, and that sap his power.

If he's 100% healthy all year, I see no reason why he couldn't hit 25-30 HRs. He has a bunch of seasons already where his ISO is .190+.

But if he gets HBP on his hand/arm, SELL IMMEDIATELY :-o
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Re: Edwin Encarnacion - is he for real?

Postby RynMan » Mon Apr 30, 2012 9:25 am

To answer your question, i've watched quite a few jays games, and the commentators have discussed how E5 has worked to really consciously shorten his swing in the offseason. So when a guy starts off red hot, its nice to hear that there might be a reason for the production. I for one, don't think this is a fluke.
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Re: Edwin Encarnacion - is he for real?

Postby Mookie4ever » Mon Apr 30, 2012 11:09 am

RynMan wrote:To answer your question, i've watched quite a few jays games, and the commentators have discussed how E5 has worked to really consciously shorten his swing in the offseason. So when a guy starts off red hot, its nice to hear that there might be a reason for the production. I for one, don't think this is a fluke.


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Re: Edwin Encarnacion - is he for real?

Postby Frenchiegangsta9 » Mon Apr 30, 2012 11:15 am

Mookie4ever wrote:
RynMan wrote:To answer your question, i've watched quite a few jays games, and the commentators have discussed how E5 has worked to really consciously shorten his swing in the offseason. So when a guy starts off red hot, its nice to hear that there might be a reason for the production. I for one, don't think this is a fluke.


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