Ok guys, I need some advice on this one. Ive always had trouble trying to weigh a hitters value vs. a pitchers value in trades. Like for example how would you weigh Buster Posey vs. David Price? How do you all do it?? Any and all opinions would be great thanks!
That's the hardest thing in fantasy to do...the people that are great at it are probably the best traders out there.
See for me when you asked that particular question I immediately said David Price...but I initially had no numbers or actual data to back it up..it was just my gut opinion..
Wins over Replacement is something that tries to value both pitchers and hitters but good luck relying on that for fantasy purposes...I'm not really sure man, I'm interested in other responses as well.
I think you mostly have to weigh your own teams strengths and weaknesses...if you are loaded with pitchers maybe giving up Price for Posey seems like a great idea.
Why don't they just get a house that's already painted?
802GREENS wrote:Ok guys, I need some advice on this one. Ive always had trouble trying to weigh a hitters value vs. a pitchers value in trades. Like for example how would you weigh Buster Posey vs. David Price? How do you all do it?? Any and all opinions would be great thanks!
There's too many factors to figure in before answering a question like that. Type of league, scoring, whats available on the FA market, your team's strengths and weaknesses, etc. Basically I look at it from a fantasy WAR perspective. Who is your best backup option at C if you lose Posey and who does Price end up replacing (if anyone) in your lineup.
If Soto is your best backup at C and Price replaces Bucholz for example, take account into what you lose and gain in the trade and if that makes your team more balanced/competitive it could help you.
I have a team that's ridiculously loaded in hitting, and I have guys like Bonifacio and David Ortiz on my bench, who are worth starting in this league. Someone just offered me Kershaw for Hamilton. Losing Hamilton means I get to play Ortiz at DH, as I shift Cespedes into my OF. Kershaw joins a pitching staff that has Beachy as my ace, followed by Luebke, Lynn, Sale, Peavy and Santana. While these low cost pitchers are doing well, I don't expect them all to continue on their current pace and would like to offset any future blowups with a stud SP like Kershaw.
Thanks its a helpful start! I actually have Napoli starting at C and Posey in a utility spot. My pitchers are Kennedy, Bumgardner, A. Sanchez, Beachy, McCarthy, Norris, and Zambrano so I would replace one of the latter two. My bench is very shallow tho with only Ike Davis and Delmon Young.
I'm still interested in hearing how other people try to rate deals like this.
Dollar values, just like you'd use before an auction or draft. There are probably a dozen threads on how to do that if you search for them. It at least gives you an idea of what each player provides to you team in a neutral environment. But you have to adjust them to fit your league. Usually closers go for more than their theoretical dollar value. You can also look at who's on waivers and what they're worth to get an idea of what the replacement level is for each position. Theoretically replacement players are worth $0 but your league will never perfectly roster all positive value players. For instance if there are a handful of $5 OFs on waivers then subtract $5 from every OFs value when trading them, because you can get that for free. I usually simplify it by breaking it down into hitters and starting pitchers.
In the Posey vs Price example, lets say you calculate Posey is worth $10 and Price is worth $15. And there are a bunch of $2 catchers on waivers, but all of the starting pitchers on waivers are worth less than $1. Add $1 to Price's value, and take $2 off Posey's value. $16 vs $8. Seems pretty straightforward that Price is better in this example. You also need to mentally factor in how much it's worth to be able to spot start waiver wire pitchers in Price's old roster spot if you trade him. Plus lots of other factors. But at least dollar values give a firm starting point that you can work with.
I think you need to determine values according to league settings/scoring. I like to use baseballmonster.com, where you can enter your league info for rankings to see how hitters compare to pitchers in our league compared to standard 5X5 leagues. In our league, pitchers are a little more valuable, so I bump them up a few spots.
It seems to me that hitters would be more valuable, intuitively, which would make trades like the one proposed very difficult to figure out. Until I've been playing long enough to figure it out, I'll just stick to congruent trades that involve the same amount of pitchers and batters on each side. With expressed consent of everybody in this forum, of course
Pitchers only give you 4 stats of which 3 of them are highly volatile year to year and they are higher injury risks and easier to find mid season(though riskier), they should be pretty heavily discounted. The very top end pitchers are a bit more consistent so I'm a believer in grabbing 1 sort of top end guy (top 4 or 5 rounds). After that I prefer to go with a depth approach and just get a lot of medium range players. I absolutely hate the pick for upside and pray approach that many take in late rounds because that is how you lose yourself leagues. Sure if you hit it helps win the league but you will miss more than you hit and in roto at least the damage will already be done on the misses. If you are going to take late risks go after someone like Peavy who puts up good stats but can't stay healthy, not someone like Liriano or Matutz who could be good or could trash your team.
Mid season I think the value of pitching goes up and hitting goes down though. The pitchers have proven they are healthy and throwing the ball well and that is sort of the big risk with them. As for Posey vs Price, it is going to depend heavily on your league setup etc but if you have a C in your utility slot I would take a net loss to make a move with them since you have a very small number of teams willing to trade for a C and you are kind of stuck with a wasted slot by holding him.
Dollar values, just like you'd use before an auction or draft.
However in HTH leagues with deep benches I much prefer all of my top 5 or 6 round players are all hitters. I would prefer not to trade any top-5 round hitter for pitching unless there's a redundancy (I have two top 3Bs) and even then I'd prefer trading for another hitter. I can load up at the back end of my pitching staff and make up for not having the elite pitcher. I can't make up for not having a Pujols or a Votto. Unless it's this year and then Todd Helton is better