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Jermaine Dye or Dmitri Young?

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Postby Yikes » Fri Apr 02, 2004 11:39 pm

[quote="LBJackal"]People need to stop ranking by where people are drafted, and start ranking by where they SHOULD be drafted.[/quote]

that kinda flies into the face of the whole prefect market price theory by Thomas Hobbs (or was it Calvin and Hobbes? my econ prof put me to sleep too often)

I don't think there a way people can draft players where they are supposed to be drafted unless there is perfect information. Perfect information in the sense that everybody knows the draft sheets of everybody else in their league.

Example:
Joe Blow plays in your league. If Joe Blow thinks Jermaine Dye should be drafted in the 11th round, he'll do so. However, if Joe knows everybody else's draft sheet and sees they only want to spend an 18th rounder for Dye. he'd then postpone getting dye until the 17th round. We then have some compromises by the others who were prepared to draft Dye in the 18th but now knowing Joe Blow's draft strategy might move Dye up on their draft sheets. After moves here and there one guy really wants Dye and puts up the ante and gets him by the 15th round.

After all this process we know Dye was drafted where he was supposed to be drafted IN THIS LEAGUE.

Naturally other leagues see the draft results and would disagree with Dye going in the 15th. To eliminate this (there really isn't any feasible way for fantasy baseball) is to have ALL players from ALL LEAGUES be combined into ONE fantasy baseball league and share their draft sheets with each other before the draft of all drafts.

Guess what, a giant league like this exists!
It's called Wall Street
;-D
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Postby LBJackal » Sat Apr 03, 2004 12:18 am

I'm a Commerce major (albeit, 1st year) so I've heard enough boring economics lectures :-b but my point was that just because Chavez is drafted too early doesn't make him better than Young. He has more trade value, but he's not better. They play the same position, so it's not like one or the other can have a greater value due to the other having a position that it under-rated (ie: closers). They're both 3B's, both will put up about 30 HR, they'll both have about the same R and RBI, Chavez will get a couple more SB's, and Young will have a better BA by about 20 points. Explain to me how Chavez is the 2nd best 3B and Young is a scrub to be taken after the 10th round. :-?
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Postby Bukoski77 » Sat Apr 03, 2004 12:29 am

Ok guys I was wrong, way wrong. Thanks for enlightening me, see signature :-D .

However Young will strike out probably 20-30 times more than Dye. I have seen the light and even with that said Young is still a much better bet, but just thought I would throw that out there.

My points leagues subtract points for K's.
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Postby Yikes » Sat Apr 03, 2004 12:53 am

[quote="LBJackal"]my point was that just because Chavez is drafted too early doesn't make him better than Young. He has more trade value, but he's not better. :-?[/quote]

Commerce major, sounds cool ;-D
my school doesn't doesn't even have a business department, only Business/Econ :-t oh well, they say you don't learn business in college anyways and I think that's very true

Chavez is drafted much earlier than Micky Mouse Boy (check out Dimiti's mug shot on yahoo, it's hilarious :-D ) because

1) Chavez still has some of those Giambi-Tejada-Chavez aftereffect illusion that gives him an artificial boost in value.
Exaggerated Example: The Dot-Com stocks during the hay days. Some stocks did take a while to finally tank because they were held by die-hard stockowners still remembering the record stock prices in the late 90's while trying to discount the fact that the company has been laying off left and right

2) Chavez is on a winners' team and Dimiti was on a loser's team
Exaggerated Example: Two similar performing stocks, I'd rather buy MechWarrior Inc stock than Composts R Us stock. The Tigers players are just unjustifiably perceived as not as "sexy" as the Oakland players due to their dismal records in previous years.

3) Guys wanna showboat their rosters to others and Chavez gets more respect than Micky Mouse Boy

4) Therefore Chavez has more trade value due to reasons above.

If I had Chavez, I'd trade for Young and another undervalued stock, I mean player. :-D
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Postby LBJackal » Sat Apr 03, 2004 1:25 am

That's exactly what I'd do too. And all those reasons are pretty good explanations of why he's over-rated. The Tejada/Giambi-aided stats are the big part IMO. If only my economics professors would use baseball examples to explain things, I'd understand much better. And now I know who to ask for help on Econ (I have a final on wednesday, so be prepared) :-b
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Sat Apr 03, 2004 2:49 am

LBJackal wrote:Young finally has some help in the lineup (White, Guillen, Vina, and a healthy Higginson who hopefully remembers how to hit) and I have no doubt he can be every bit as good as Chavez, or even better. Young's last 5 healthy seasons (2002 he had a hernia problem that he played through for 54 games): .310, .300, .303, . 302, .297 - not too bad for a 3B, is it. He has 30 HR power, and has always been a doubles hitter, which is a good sign of more power to come. The 130 K's might concern some people, but his OBA was a career high .372 so I wouldn't worry about the K's unless they are a stat in your league.


Not to nit pick but you forgot to mention another guy who may give dmitri some occasional protection. <cough>Pudge<caugh>
Other than that I couldnt have said it better myself.

The real reason I wrote this message is because I love to see one of our own getting props.

Last season was a long season.

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sorry - its late.
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Postby Guest » Sat Apr 03, 2004 2:50 am

Ok, this topic has been exhausted..so let me branch off. If we're talking about Young at 3B (I have him in my outfield), who is more valuable there, Young or Aramis Ramierez?
I desperately need pitching in a deep 20 team league since I have Prior on my team, and it's either Dye, Young, or A Ram. Whatever one I can get the most value for, I'll probably deal.
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Postby Cornbread Maxwell » Sat Apr 03, 2004 2:54 am

if i had aramis and young like you and really needed pitching, I would shop them both to see who gets me the best return - just like you said. I think thats a solid plan.
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Postby inkubus » Sat Apr 03, 2004 2:54 am

Young off waivers. ;-D ;-D
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Postby The Jury » Sat Apr 03, 2004 10:32 am

If I had Chavez, I'd trade for Young and another undervalued stock, I mean player.


That would work if you negotiated the deal, but when the other party sees the stats he/she will realize that Chavez isn't the kingpin over Dmitri after all :-o
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