How much should we really be looking at FIP and xFIP?? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014

## How much should we really be looking at FIP and xFIP??

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

### Re: How much should we really be looking at FIP and xFIP??

jorgesca wrote:LD rates are nowhere included in SIERA right? I think it includes GB rate and FB rate and I'd love one stat that included the 3 of them. Something like FIP but where BABIP included these 3 things.

I think they leave out LD% because the year to year correlation is really low, it is 0.40 only.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero

Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

### Re: How much should we really be looking at FIP and xFIP??

If using LD% made an improvement, I'm sure it would have already been included. A quick google search shows that LD% only has a 0.11 correlation from year to year, versus GB% and FB% which have Y2Y correlations of .85 and 0.81 respectively. That means incorporating LD% probably does more harm than good, and explains the omission.
Skin Blues
General Manager

Posts: 3080
(Past Year: 139)
Joined: 11 Apr 2010
Home Cafe: Baseball

### Re: How much should we really be looking at FIP and xFIP??

Yeah what he said, LD was listed at 0.40, didn't notice it was missing the % so I gave the wrong number.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero

Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

### Re: How much should we really be looking at FIP and xFIP??

[quote="Skin Blues"]If using LD% made an improvement, I'm sure it would have already been included. A quick google search shows that [url=http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/1/9/2690405/what-starting-pitcher-metrics-correlate-year-to-year]LD% only has a 0.11 correlation from year to year[/url], versus GB% and FB% which have Y2Y correlations of .85 and 0.81 respectively. That means incorporating LD% probably does more harm than good, and explains the omission.[/quote]

Yeah I'm sure it would have already been included, and as a predictor of future ERA this might be better, but should it be included when analyzing past performance? a year worth of performance? I think a year worth of data on balls in play with a higher than usual LD% and a higher than usual BABIP would just indicate that his stuff was just not good and it was hit hard, not that he had bad luck. Just some random thoughts, I always feel something is missing in all of these statistics.
jorgesca
College Coach

Posts: 102
Joined: 11 Apr 2007
Home Cafe: Baseball

### Re: How much should we really be looking at FIP and xFIP??

LD% fluctuates wildly year to year, you need a good 4 or 5 year sample for it to mean very much. That is why it shows such a small year to year correlation.
Ender
Hall of Fame Hero

Posts: 7733
Joined: 30 Apr 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Previous

### Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues

Today's Games
Wednesday, Sep. 3
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

 • Pittsburgh at St. Louis(1:45 pm)
 • San Francisco at Colorado(3:10 pm)
 • Washington at LA Dodgers(3:10 pm)
 • Seattle at Oakland(3:35 pm)
 • Boston at NY Yankees(7:05 pm)
 • Detroit at Cleveland(7:05 pm)
 • Cincinnati at Baltimore(7:05 pm)
 • NY Mets at Miami(7:10 pm)
 • Toronto at Tampa Bay(7:10 pm)
 • Milwaukee at Chi Cubs(8:05 pm)
 • LA Angels at Houston(8:10 pm)
 • Texas at Kansas City(8:10 pm)
 • Chi White Sox at Minnesota(8:10 pm)
 • Arizona at San Diego(10:05 pm)