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How much should we really be looking at FIP and xFIP??

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How much should we really be looking at FIP and xFIP??

Postby NikkiSixx » Wed Apr 25, 2012 12:36 pm

Just curious to know how important that is to some of you when measuring how well a pitcher pitches.
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Re: How much should we really be looking at FIP and xFIP??

Postby jcook3127 » Wed Apr 25, 2012 1:13 pm

I consider xFIP the most important statistical metric in valuing pitchers...then to supplement xFIP I look at trends in ground ball rates, career BABIPs, etc.

But I really think it's a great stat.. A lot of people believe that Home Run per fly ball isn't totally normalized to that 10% figure though..meaning some guys just always give up a crap load of homers..so if you subscribe to that regular FIP is very good too..I think it's all about comparing trends on a pitcher by pitcher basis though..if 4 out of 5 years a pitcher has 7% or below HR/FLY, his xFIP will usually always ride higher than his actual ERA..obviously there's flaws to every stat but I love it
Why don't they just get a house that's already painted?
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Re: How much should we really be looking at FIP and xFIP??

Postby Skin Blues » Wed Apr 25, 2012 1:35 pm

I just look at SIERA. I believe it's the best, it correlates extremely well with ERA, stablizes fast, etc. Not that FIP or xFIP are horrible or anything, I just keep it simple by using SIERA.
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Re: How much should we really be looking at FIP and xFIP??

Postby Ender » Wed Apr 25, 2012 1:46 pm

Any sort of component ERA is better than ERA itself with the one caveat that park, defense etc still have to come into play as well.
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Re: How much should we really be looking at FIP and xFIP??

Postby buffalobillsrul2002 » Wed Apr 25, 2012 11:57 pm

Ender wrote:Any sort of component ERA is better than ERA itself with the one caveat that park, defense etc still have to come into play as well.


This. It's actually very easy to look at all of the component ERAs and get overhyped, without realizing that park and defense play a role in ERA (as do opposition, luck, etc.). Not accounting for park/defense (especially defense) is a very easy to way to hurt your ERA (and to a lesser extent WHIP).
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Re: How much should we really be looking at FIP and xFIP??

Postby kab21 » Thu Apr 26, 2012 12:26 am

I use xFIP mainly for getting a quick opinion on a pitcher but you still need to dig deeper. In addition to Ender's comments I also consider these advanced stats to be worthless after 3-4 starts. At this point in the season I'm more interested in pitch velocities and a new one that I'm using a lot (swstr%).
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Re: How much should we really be looking at FIP and xFIP??

Postby mweir145 » Thu Apr 26, 2012 1:31 am

It's valauble...unless it's Brandon Morrow (or at least the old version of Brandon Morrow...not the "evolved" version that he is now.).
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Re: How much should we really be looking at FIP and xFIP??

Postby Ender » Thu Apr 26, 2012 8:30 am

mweir145 wrote:It's valauble...unless it's Brandon Morrow (or at least the old version of Brandon Morrow...not the "evolved" version that he is now.).


That is a pretty key concept with them as well, if a pitcher has a multiple year history of these stats not agreeing with his actual ERA you have to assume they are an outlier and that it most likely will continue to happen. Matt Cain is an example, Tom Glavine was a really good example, Morrow is an example the other way. A lot of that is still park, competition and defense though. If Morrow were traded to the Cardinals tomorrow I would be buying on him so hard.
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Re: How much should we really be looking at FIP and xFIP??

Postby reiser » Thu Apr 26, 2012 9:06 am

NikkiSixx wrote:Just curious to know how important that is to some of you when measuring how well a pitcher pitches.


if I was the GM in real baseball it would be huge.

However I'm a savant fantasy GM, so I consider luck an asset. If a team has an exceptional defense behind them-think Rays pitchers, I want to know. If a pitcher would suck outside of Petco, what do I care unless he's traded?

Additionally, this quote from the fangraphs site: "Home run rates are generally unstable over time" deserves a sizeable asterisk. xFIP normalizes HR rates.

I have been reading about DIPS and its cousins for a while, and find the topic fascinating. This article provides a pretty good summary of all the research: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... -apostate/

All of which says you can spend a lot of time looking at a bunch of measurements which try to take park and defense factors out of a pitcher's record, and ramble on and on endlessly about Hellickson.

Or you could just look at GB/FB and K/9 rates and get on with your life :-D
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Re: How much should we really be looking at FIP and xFIP??

Postby jorgesca » Thu Apr 26, 2012 2:37 pm

LD rates are nowhere included in SIERA right? I think it includes GB rate and FB rate and I'd love one stat that included the 3 of them. Something like FIP but where BABIP included these 3 things.
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