Matt Kemp

[Tavish]

I looked it up. As of this point in the season Kemp has 9 HRs and 22 RBIs. As of April 20th 2007, ARod had 12 HRs and 30 RBIs.

9 HR - 22 RBI is pretty much an average April for Pujols I believe. At least for the StL Albert.

[lastingsgriller]

I looked it up. As of this point in the season Kemp has 9 HRs and 22 RBIs. As of April 20th 2007, ARod had 12 HRs and 30 RBIs.

9 HR - 22 RBI is pretty much an average April for Pujols I believe. At least for the StL Albert.

He's more than welcome to start playing this year. When ever your ready, Albert!

[wrveres]

When ever youre ready, Albert!

this . A million times, this

[Element]

69.2% HR/FB rate

Kemp has a history of strong Aprils, but this is nuts. The guy is playing with a chip on his shoulder. He felt like he should've been the MVP last season. Hell, for a good majority of the season it wasn't Ethier, Loney or even Juan Rivera batting behind him. It was Aaron freakin' Miles!! He's highly motivated, the Dodgers have been playing great baseball for the past 3 months of regular season play & he has protection in the lineup. The HR totals will mean less steals, but it wouldn't shock me to see him end up with a line similar to this.

0.320/45/120/110/25

[Inukchuk]

69.2% HR/FB rate

Kemp has a history of strong Aprils, but this is nuts. The guy is playing with a chip on his shoulder. He felt like he should've been the MVP last season. Hell, for a good majority of the season it wasn't Ethier, Loney or even Juan Rivera batting behind him. It was Aaron freakin' Miles!! He's highly motivated, the Dodgers have been playing great baseball for the past 3 months of regular season play & he has protection in the lineup. The HR totals will mean less steals, but it wouldn't shock me to see him end up with a line similar to this.

0.320/45/120/110/25

.320 seems way too high if his hit rate normalizes. I'm thinking .290 is a more realistic expectation.

[Tavish]

.320 seems way too high if his hit rate normalizes. I'm thinking .290 is a more realistic expectation.

If his hit rate normalizes he should be a .290 hitter from here on out. That would still probably leave him at around .320 for the season.

[J35J]

.320 seems way too high if his hit rate normalizes. I'm thinking .290 is a more realistic expectation.

If his hit rate normalizes he should be a .290 hitter from here on out. That would still probably leave him at around .320 for the season.

Yup, and this works in the opposite way as well and for determining value when trading for guys. If you happen to sell him really high and at the end of the year he's hitting .310-.320 you don't look at it as you traded a guy who hit .320 you traded a guy who hit .290 because thats what he actually hit the remainder of the year...you didn't lose a .320 hitter you lost a .290 hitter. Or if you think a guy with 2 hr so far in the year is going to hit 40 and you trade a guy that has 8 hr on the year and you think he'll end with 40 then you obviously got more out of it than the other guy, you get 38 hr while the other guy gets 32. Another example. A guy is hitting .210 through the first month and a half of the year and he "only" ends the season hitting .265...know that he would would have had to hit .285 the rest of the way to reach that .265 mark so if you got him in a trade when he was hitting .210, you didn't get a .265 hitter when it's all said and done, you got a .285 hitter.

So yeah, to come full circle, you can expect Kemp to regress to a .290-.300 rate or so but that doesn't mean he's going to finish as a .290 hitter. If you think he will finish as a .290 hitter and he does finish as a .290 hitter, then you need to sell sell sell because he'd have to hit .270 from here on out to be a .290 hitter at the end of the year.