Inukchuk wrote:.320 seems way too high if his hit rate normalizes. I'm thinking .290 is a more realistic expectation.
If his hit rate normalizes he should be a .290 hitter from here on out. That would still probably leave him at around .320 for the season.
Yup, and this works in the opposite way as well and for determining value when trading for guys. If you happen to sell him really high and at the end of the year he's hitting .310-.320 you don't look at it as you traded a guy who hit .320 you traded a guy who hit .290 because thats what he actually hit the remainder of the year...you didn't lose a .320 hitter you lost a .290 hitter. Or if you think a guy with 2 hr so far in the year is going to hit 40 and you trade a guy that has 8 hr on the year and you think he'll end with 40 then you obviously got more out of it than the other guy, you get 38 hr while the other guy gets 32. Another example. A guy is hitting .210 through the first month and a half of the year and he "only" ends the season hitting .265...know that he would would have had to hit .285 the rest of the way to reach that .265 mark so if you got him in a trade when he was hitting .210, you didn't get a .265 hitter when it's all said and done, you got a .285 hitter.
So yeah, to come full circle, you can expect Kemp to regress to a .290-.300 rate or so but that doesn't mean he's going to finish as a .290 hitter. If you think he will finish as a .290 hitter and he does finish as a .290 hitter, then you need to sell sell sell because he'd have to hit .270 from here on out to be a .290 hitter at the end of the year.