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Impact Rookie Pitcher Watch

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Re: Impact Rookie Pitcher Watch

Postby lane_anasazi2 » Sun Apr 22, 2012 5:07 am

Back on topic.

kab21 wrote:Who are the upside picks after Parker and Bauer? I really like Skaggs but I don't think he'll be up until late in the season.


Whomever gets the call out of Danny Hultzen and James Paxton. Noesi is erratic and Kevin Millwood and Blake Bleven aren't scaring anyone. The M's have no reason to rush them but they're not exactly blocked at the MLB level, either. They're both in AA and doing great, especially Paxton.

Could also have an impact this season and have the upside to be actionable:

Jacob Turner
Wily Peralta
Brad Peacock
Drew Hutchinson (just got called up)
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Re: Impact Rookie Pitcher Watch

Postby BigZ38 » Sun Apr 22, 2012 5:25 am

benb18a wrote:
BigZ38 wrote:
You're clearly missing the point of this conversation. I'm not saying that there isn't value in unproven players having breakout years (in essence, thats why I started this thread, to get updates on rookies who have upside that might be called up). I'm in a keeper league, I've been able to acquire Braun, Upton, Bautista, and Votto. Should I get rid of those guys for riskier breakout candidates? Or should I hold on to them and have them pay consistent dividends (Having them be my rock), while going and seeking upside players off the waiver wire.

A team that had Hanley Ramirez and Carl Crawford last year was really behind the eight ball.

Again I'll do things my way in my very competitive keeper league (Now on year 10, never missed the playoffs), and you can do your unofficial studies and foo-foo top level players like Braun.

This thread is about updates on potential impact rookie pitchers.


No, I'm not clearly missing anything. I'm not saying there isn't a rational basis in acquiring stud players (LOL), I'm merely saying that dismissing any specific type of player, especially those that in traditional leagues cost little to nothing but research and diligence to obtain, is not a very intelligent approach. I might as well refuse to use players from rival teams, to be honest, it's about as worthwhile as ignoring rookies in my opinion. How you arrived at the conclusion that I'd rather draft a Bryce Harper-type player in the first round of a standard redraft, than a Braun or Kemp, is beyond me. :-? I merely stated that it's better to strike gold, than it is to get exactly what you paid for, is all. Clearly, you missed my point.

I'm not even sure when keepers became relevant to what I said. I never mentioned a single thing about keepers at all. I see now that you must be implicitly discussing quite deep redraft/keeper strategy, but even a plain jane redraft league could see some of these guys discussed being used. In fact, looking back, I'm not sure where I made an argument against what you posted, or how you construed my post that way? Maybe you thought I was laughing at you, instead of with you, with the Terrell Owens joke? I don't know. I mean, I thought I was pretty clear when I made the example of Braun's relative impact on a fantasy team during his rookie year, compared to now when he has the highest of costs to obtain. *shrug*

This thread went on a tangent to discussing the approach to rookie pitchers.


Ah I read that as you we're laughing at that I thought my team would fail based on my high level performs, not performing. My mistake.

I agree I'd like this to be a resource about potential rookie pitchers. I've had a good deal of success with them in the past and a hoping for more of the same this year!
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Re: Impact Rookie Pitcher Watch

Postby benb18a » Sun Apr 22, 2012 5:27 am

I don't know what Roenicke was thinking when he called Peralta up to get ready tonight, and then marched Dillard out there again for the ninth. Not sure when he thinks there will be a better opportunity for him to get a shot, unless he's being quite optimistic, considering how the team has come across the majority of their victories in the last week, ie. nailbiter games that a rookie reliever has no place in :-b

I'm high on Estrada, although he's technically not a rookie. He did just fine last year, and Narveson has never really showed the upside that would keep a young and talented guy like Estrada out of the rotation.

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Re: Impact Rookie Pitcher Watch

Postby benb18a » Sun Apr 22, 2012 5:40 am

BigZ38 wrote:Ah I read that as you we're laughing at that I thought my team would fail based on my high level performs, not performing. My mistake.

I agree I'd like this to be a resource about potential rookie pitchers. I've had a good deal of success with them in the past and a hoping for more of the same this year!


I understand, no hard feelings; I emboldened the sentence about TO and that's what I laughed at. On this forum it's not easy to make out emboldened stand-alone sentences unless you're looking up at the screen. That's my wide receiver, and if you make fun of him, it's really not fair. :,-( :-D
1B: Freeman 2B: Craig 3B: Beltre SS: Seager C: Lucroy OF: Granderson, Harper, BJ Up UT: Kipnis, Aoki
BN: Howard, Rizzo, Donaldson
DL: Tulo
Peavy Sale, Valverde, Axford, Greinke, Marcum, Estrada, Capuano, Hughes, Haren

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Re: Impact Rookie Pitcher Watch

Postby Ender » Sun Apr 22, 2012 7:30 am

Top 5 Starting Pitchers - D. Price, Beachy, Minor, Morrow, Holland
Relief Pitchers - Kimbrel, Guerra, Santos


Those aren't the types of pitchers I'm really talking about here, those are guys with some sort of track record. I'm talking about the guys who trot out guys like Parker, Detweiler, Matusz, Weiland, Doubront, Milone etc to start the year. Those are draft and hold and maybe play matchup type guys. I'm also not talking about the uber can't miss have to draft them early type prospects like Strasburg but even those guys end up failing at a decent rate their first season.

My point is that if you are good at drafting and you trust your skills you are better off taking risks late on hitting than pitching, pitching is just too volatile and guys with no track records are as likely to hurt you as help you, especially if you are in any sort of highly competitive league where the owners are snatching up the top prospects before they even make the league. To answer the original question I'd look at Bauer but to be honest I just dropped him in my keeper league because his BB rates have been so suspect in the minors and I decided I didn't want to take the risk on him blowing up when he gets called up and damaging my team for good since we have a 1450 IP cap and 3 bad starts can lose my first place quite easily. In my H2H league a guy like that is likely sitting out by the playoffs so he isn't going to do me much good and my 3rd league is a no bench league so you can't really call up a guy early and you don't want someone who doesn't have a secure job.

While people can point to the success stories you can't ignore the failures too, the guy who started Kyle Drabek or even a relatively decent guy like Mike Minor last year hurt their team, there are plenty of really good young pitchers who come up and don't put up good stats in their first set of starts and no you don't have to be stupid to think they could be good. They are just so volative that you don't know what you are getting at all. That is fine for a young hitter but for a young pitcher it just hurts your team too much when they start slow that it isn't worth the risk. The same reason I don't usually buy guys like Liriano or Volquez and if I do they sit on my bench for a good month or two before I trust them in the lineup. That of course is in roto, if you play H2H you have a ton more leeway.
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Re: Impact Rookie Pitcher Watch

Postby footballisbetter.com » Sun Apr 22, 2012 9:50 am

What about Jarrod Parker? He might be getting called up very soon. Ranked #26 on baseball america's prospect report.

A's pitching prospect Jarrod Parker pitched just 2 2/3 innings in his start for Triple-A Sacramento on Saturday night fueling speculation that he will be brought up to Oakland to replace Graham Godfrey in the starting rotation. Godfrey was optioned to Triple-A earlier in the day and manager Bob Melvin has yet to announce who will take his spot in the rotation.
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Re: Impact Rookie Pitcher Watch

Postby Skin Blues » Sun Apr 22, 2012 10:35 am

I'd add Parker in an AL league. Actually I just went to do that, and it turns out somebody drafted him. I'd only start him when he's pitching at home or in Seattle for now though, until we get a better idea of how he'll perform.
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Re: Re: Impact Rookie Pitcher Watch

Postby wrveres » Sun Apr 22, 2012 11:01 am

Ender wrote:
Top 5 Starting Pitchers - D. Price, Beachy, Minor, Holland, Kimbrel, Guerra, Santos
Those aren't the types of pitchers I'm really talking about here, those are guys with some sort of track record. I'm also not talking about the uber can't miss have to draft them early type prospects like Strasburg

Beachymania and Minor and the others had the same readable track record as the other guys you're poo-poohing on. They have a minor league track record of k/9 and k/bb that we can study. It's not dumb luck.
My point is that if you are good at drafting and you trust your skills you are better off taking risks late on hitting than pitching, pitching is just too volatile and guys with no track records are as likely to hurt you as help you, especially if you are in any sort of highly competitive league where the owners are snatching up the top prospects before they even make the league.
disagree. That top hitting prospect is just as likely to fail as the pitching prospect, and probably even more likely to get snatched up in a competitive league. You'll have to pay an even higher premium (draft pick) to get em.
Pitching is deeper, allot deeper.

To answer the original question I'd look at Bauer but to be honest I just dropped him in my keeper league because his BB rates have been so suspect in the minors and I decided I didn't want to take the risk on him blowing up when he gets called up and damaging my team for good since we have a 1450 IP cap and 3 bad starts can lose my first place quite easily.
baloney. Three bad starts is not going to derail your team. The hits, walks and earned runs the high reward prospect might cost you over your average replacement pitcher, say a Capuano, is minimal.
In my H2H league a guy like that is likely sitting out by the playoffs so he isn't going to do me much good and my 3rd league is a no bench league so you can't really call up a guy early and you don't want someone who doesn't have a secure job.
I do find it comical that you keep going back to the competitiveness of your leagues, like we're just a bunch of bumpkins playing yahoo public.
While people can point to the success stories you can't ignore the failures too,
the same goes for hitters too. I could sit here and rattle off two pages of failed hitting prospects that people will still spend a draft pick on to this day. Pedro Alvarez anybody. Is Chris Davis still getting drafted?
That is fine for a young hitter but for a young pitcher it just hurts your team too much when they start slow that it isn't worth the risk.
what? Yeah those constant 0 fers that you spent a 13th round pick on don't hurt at all.
The same reason I don't usually buy guys like Liriano or Volquez
I'm a padres fan and you wont see Volquez on my team. Yet I might be willing to take a chance on Wieland. Just dumb luck I guess.
I'd like to think I studied the situation, but I guess I was wrong.
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Re: Impact Rookie Pitcher Watch

Postby Tennessee Jed » Sun Apr 22, 2012 12:02 pm

How about this, if you don't believe in rostering young, unproven arms...stay out of the thread? just a thought.
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Re: Impact Rookie Pitcher Watch

Postby footballisbetter.com » Sun Apr 22, 2012 12:06 pm

Tennessee Jed wrote:How about this, if you don't believe in rostering young, unproven arms...stay out of the thread? just a thought.

;-D
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