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Re: Impact Rookie Pitcher Watch

Postby BigZ38 » Sun Apr 22, 2012 1:42 am

Tennessee Jed wrote:Bauer Watch: Tonight's line... 7 shutout innings, 4 hits, 2 bb, 8 k's


Nice! Hopefully his control was ok. That seems to be the one major gripe they've had with him.
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Re: Impact Rookie Pitcher Watch

Postby wrveres » Sun Apr 22, 2012 1:43 am

Well I have standards so you'll never see me chasing an Oriole or an Astro pitcher (lol). I like pitchers in pitcher parks so I'd probably take a shot on Wieland before Weiland. You couldnt pay me to take a chance on an Oriole pitcher.

I know who Capuano and Niese are. I know their upside. (Minimal) I've researched them cus I too play in deep leagues. it's not like I'm just tossing a dart at a board.

I'll just agree to disagree. You don't like young picthers. I'll toss a buck at em cus I feel the return can be huge.
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Re: Impact Rookie Pitcher Watch

Postby Ender » Sun Apr 22, 2012 2:29 am

I'll just agree to disagree. You don't like young picthers. I'll toss a buck at em cus I feel the return can be huge.


Yep that about sums it up. Every year I see owners roll the dice on these upside guys and every year 75% of their teams die because the rookies stink and the guys who guess right are in it to the end but it was mostly dumb luck because with no track record you are just throwing darts at the board no matter how good the prospect.
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Re: Impact Rookie Pitcher Watch

Postby BigZ38 » Sun Apr 22, 2012 2:49 am

Ender wrote:
I'll just agree to disagree. You don't like young picthers. I'll toss a buck at em cus I feel the return can be huge.


Yep that about sums it up. Every year I see owners roll the dice on these upside guys and every year 75% of their teams die because the rookies stink and the guys who guess right are in it to the end but it was mostly dumb luck because with no track record you are just throwing darts at the board no matter how good the prospect.


LOL dude picking up a rookie pitcher on the waiver wire doesn't cause teams to die. High upside Rookie pitchers can come up and provide solid end of rotation help.

My team in a 12 team keeper:

C - Avila
1B - Votto
2B - Cuddyer
3B - Lawrie
SS - Aybar
OF - Bautista
OF - Upton
OF - Braun
Util - Butler
BN - Werth

Top 5 Starting Pitchers - D. Price, Beachy, Minor, Morrow, Holland
Relief Pitchers - Kimbrel, Guerra, Santos

If my team falls flat, it's likely because my four first round caliber offensive players sucked, not because I picked up a rookie off the waiver wire and he sucked the life out of my team like Terrell Owens.

In 2009, Tommy Hanson got called up at the beginning of June and went 11-4 with a 2.89 and 116 strikeouts in 127 innings. In 2010 when Stephen Strasburg came up his 2.91 ERA and 92 strikeouts in 68 innings was a huge help. Last year Jeremy Hellickson was a huge pick up, and he was hyped. Brandon Beachy came out of nowhere but also a huge pickup.
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Re: Impact Rookie Pitcher Watch

Postby benb18a » Sun Apr 22, 2012 3:06 am

BigZ38 wrote:
Ender wrote:
I'll just agree to disagree. You don't like young picthers. I'll toss a buck at em cus I feel the return can be huge.


Yep that about sums it up. Every year I see owners roll the dice on these upside guys and every year 75% of their teams die because the rookies stink and the guys who guess right are in it to the end but it was mostly dumb luck because with no track record you are just throwing darts at the board no matter how good the prospect.


LOL dude picking up a rookie pitcher on the waiver wire doesn't cause teams to die. High upside Rookie pitchers can come up and provide solid end of rotation help.

My team in a 12 team keeper:

C - Avila
1B - Votto
2B - Cuddyer
3B - Lawrie
SS - Aybar
OF - Bautista
OF - Upton
OF - Braun
Util - Butler
BN - Werth

Top 5 Starting Pitchers - D. Price, Beachy, Minor, Morrow, Holland
Relief Pitchers - Kimbrel, Guerra, Santos

If my team falls flat, it's likely because my four first round caliber offensive players sucked, not because I picked up a rookie off the waiver wire and he sucked the life out of my team like Terrell Owens.

In 2009, Tommy Hanson got called up at the beginning of June and went 11-4 with a 2.89 and 116 strikeouts in 127 innings. In 2010 when Stephen Strasburg came up his 2.91 ERA and 92 strikeouts in 68 innings was a huge help. Last year Jeremy Hellickson was a huge pick up, and he was hyped. Brandon Beachy came out of nowhere but also a huge pickup.


This made me LOL :-D

A few years ago I did an unscientific study, and found that those who were the last to draft a quarterback, won titles more often than those who drafted elite, top tier QBs. They were also more likely than average to finish in the bottom third of the league. So it seems like not only taking risks, but a discerning approach to the WW/FA pool is the best way to win a title. I also liken it to playing in a large poker tournament. Playing "safe" will result in being blinded away 99% of the time, and the only way you can outlast everybody is if you are willing to go home broke in the first couple hours. Let's be honest, second place in fantasy sports is simply the first loser. Yeah, making it to the playoffs is half the battle, and don't I know about steamrolling the league and then getting bounced by that 8-6 team in the first round, but when you play in competitive leagues, you will see far more washed up guys you know exactly what you'll get sitting on the WW, and far more very young, unproven guys on people's bench. You want to snag the breakout candidate, not the guy fresh off a breakout season. How many teams will win a title drafting Braun in the first round this year? How many teams won a title in 2007 after stashing/picking up Braun? Exactly.
1B: Freeman 2B: Craig 3B: Beltre SS: Seager C: Lucroy OF: Granderson, Harper, BJ Up UT: Kipnis, Aoki
BN: Howard, Rizzo, Donaldson
DL: Tulo
Peavy Sale, Valverde, Axford, Greinke, Marcum, Estrada, Capuano, Hughes, Haren

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Re: Impact Rookie Pitcher Watch

Postby wrveres » Sun Apr 22, 2012 3:13 am

Yep. Just dumb luck.
I have zero clue what I'm doing. Never bothered to research a guy … at all.
I'm probably the stupidest guy to ever play the game.
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Re: Impact Rookie Pitcher Watch

Postby benb18a » Sun Apr 22, 2012 3:26 am

I'd rather finish in the cellar 75% of the time, if it means I have a 10% better chance of winning the league championship. That's just me, and many of the $$ leagues I've played in have been winner-take-all :-b

Also, if you're playing in a very competitive league, chance will be a larger aspect of success in the short term than in an uncompetitive league. Hell it's very possible to win a league title by showing up on draft day with a bunch of noobs, and never touching your lineup. Not exactly a possibility in a competitive league from top to bottom, if that happens then buying a lottery ticket would be the next thing to do :-b
1B: Freeman 2B: Craig 3B: Beltre SS: Seager C: Lucroy OF: Granderson, Harper, BJ Up UT: Kipnis, Aoki
BN: Howard, Rizzo, Donaldson
DL: Tulo
Peavy Sale, Valverde, Axford, Greinke, Marcum, Estrada, Capuano, Hughes, Haren

Public Yahoo league 130-67-13 winrar
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Re: Impact Rookie Pitcher Watch

Postby BigZ38 » Sun Apr 22, 2012 4:25 am

benb18a wrote:
BigZ38 wrote:
Ender wrote:
Yep that about sums it up. Every year I see owners roll the dice on these upside guys and every year 75% of their teams die because the rookies stink and the guys who guess right are in it to the end but it was mostly dumb luck because with no track record you are just throwing darts at the board no matter how good the prospect.


LOL dude picking up a rookie pitcher on the waiver wire doesn't cause teams to die. High upside Rookie pitchers can come up and provide solid end of rotation help.

My team in a 12 team keeper:

C - Avila
1B - Votto
2B - Cuddyer
3B - Lawrie
SS - Aybar
OF - Bautista
OF - Upton
OF - Braun
Util - Butler
BN - Werth

Top 5 Starting Pitchers - D. Price, Beachy, Minor, Morrow, Holland
Relief Pitchers - Kimbrel, Guerra, Santos

If my team falls flat, it's likely because my four first round caliber offensive players sucked, not because I picked up a rookie off the waiver wire and he sucked the life out of my team like Terrell Owens.

In 2009, Tommy Hanson got called up at the beginning of June and went 11-4 with a 2.89 and 116 strikeouts in 127 innings. In 2010 when Stephen Strasburg came up his 2.91 ERA and 92 strikeouts in 68 innings was a huge help. Last year Jeremy Hellickson was a huge pick up, and he was hyped. Brandon Beachy came out of nowhere but also a huge pickup.


This made me LOL :-D

A few years ago I did an unscientific study, and found that those who were the last to draft a quarterback, won titles more often than those who drafted elite, top tier QBs. They were also more likely than average to finish in the bottom third of the league. So it seems like not only taking risks, but a discerning approach to the WW/FA pool is the best way to win a title. I also liken it to playing in a large poker tournament. Playing "safe" will result in being blinded away 99% of the time, and the only way you can outlast everybody is if you are willing to go home broke in the first couple hours. Let's be honest, second place in fantasy sports is simply the first loser. Yeah, making it to the playoffs is half the battle, and don't I know about steamrolling the league and then getting bounced by that 8-6 team in the first round, but when you play in competitive leagues, you will see far more washed up guys you know exactly what you'll get sitting on the WW, and far more very young, unproven guys on people's bench. You want to snag the breakout candidate, not the guy fresh off a breakout season. How many teams will win a title drafting Braun in the first round this year? How many teams won a title in 2007 after stashing/picking up Braun? Exactly.


You're clearly missing the point of this conversation. I'm not saying that there isn't value in unproven players having breakout years (in essence, thats why I started this thread, to get updates on rookies who have upside that might be called up). I'm in a keeper league, I've been able to acquire Braun, Upton, Bautista, and Votto. Should I get rid of those guys for riskier breakout candidates? Or should I hold on to them and have them pay consistent dividends (Having them be my rock), while going and seeking upside players off the waiver wire.

A team that had Hanley Ramirez and Carl Crawford last year was really behind the eight ball.

Again I'll do things my way in my very competitive keeper league (Now on year 10, never missed the playoffs), and you can do your unofficial studies and foo-foo top level players like Braun.

This thread is about updates on potential impact rookie pitchers.
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Re: Impact Rookie Pitcher Watch

Postby kab21 » Sun Apr 22, 2012 4:38 am

the only part of Ender's point that I agree with is drafting rookies in the first 15 rds. After I have assembled a pretty solid staff I'll roll the dice with a couple of upside arms (rookies or not rookies) in the late rds or in FA.

I also dropped Noesi and picked up Parker.

Who are the upside picks after Parker and Bauer? I really like Skaggs but I don't think he'll be up until late in the season.
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Re: Impact Rookie Pitcher Watch

Postby benb18a » Sun Apr 22, 2012 5:05 am

BigZ38 wrote:
You're clearly missing the point of this conversation. I'm not saying that there isn't value in unproven players having breakout years (in essence, thats why I started this thread, to get updates on rookies who have upside that might be called up). I'm in a keeper league, I've been able to acquire Braun, Upton, Bautista, and Votto. Should I get rid of those guys for riskier breakout candidates? Or should I hold on to them and have them pay consistent dividends (Having them be my rock), while going and seeking upside players off the waiver wire.

A team that had Hanley Ramirez and Carl Crawford last year was really behind the eight ball.

Again I'll do things my way in my very competitive keeper league (Now on year 10, never missed the playoffs), and you can do your unofficial studies and foo-foo top level players like Braun.

This thread is about updates on potential impact rookie pitchers.


No, I'm not clearly missing anything. I'm not saying there isn't a rational basis in acquiring stud players (LOL), I'm merely saying that dismissing any specific type of player, especially those that in traditional leagues cost little to nothing but research and diligence to obtain, is not a very intelligent approach. I might as well refuse to use players from rival teams, to be honest, it's about as worthwhile as ignoring rookies in my opinion. How you arrived at the conclusion that I'd rather draft a Bryce Harper-type player in the first round of a standard redraft, than a Braun or Kemp, is beyond me. :-? I merely stated that it's better to strike gold, than it is to get exactly what you paid for, is all. Clearly, you missed my point.

I'm not even sure when keepers became relevant to what I said. I never mentioned a single thing about keepers at all. I see now that you must be implicitly discussing quite deep redraft/keeper strategy, but even a plain jane redraft league could see some of these guys discussed being used. In fact, looking back, I'm not sure where I made an argument against what you posted, or how you construed my post that way? Maybe you thought I was laughing at you, instead of with you, with the Terrell Owens joke? I don't know. I mean, I thought I was pretty clear when I made the example of Braun's relative impact on a fantasy team during his rookie year, compared to now when he has the highest of costs to obtain. *shrug*

This thread went on a tangent to discussing the approach to rookie pitchers.
Last edited by benb18a on Sun Apr 22, 2012 5:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
1B: Freeman 2B: Craig 3B: Beltre SS: Seager C: Lucroy OF: Granderson, Harper, BJ Up UT: Kipnis, Aoki
BN: Howard, Rizzo, Donaldson
DL: Tulo
Peavy Sale, Valverde, Axford, Greinke, Marcum, Estrada, Capuano, Hughes, Haren

Public Yahoo league 130-67-13 winrar
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