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Re: Ross Detwiler

Postby Neato Torpedo » Sat Apr 21, 2012 4:57 pm

Ender wrote:
Magnus_CA wrote:
Ender wrote:Good luck with that.


I expect more out of you. :-{

He has the pedigree, the park, and he's strung together three quality starts. I'm buying him up where I can.


He has faced crappy teams, he is on a mediocre team and his peripherals don't suggest the stats he has produced.

No one's peripherals will suggest an 0.56 ERA is sustainable. However, between FIP, xFIP, and SIERA, none are over 2.74 on the year, which is still very good. His swinging strike and called strike rates are both up, and it's not like his 4.28 SIERA last year was particularly bad. I'm not expecting him to be an ace, but a 3.85/1.25/155/12 season is both reasonable as a prediction and great for the back of a fantasy rotation.
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Re: Ross Detwiler

Postby RedHopeful » Sat Apr 21, 2012 5:38 pm

I actually feel better about Detwiler now. Ender hated on Ogando pretty much all of last year. ;-)
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Re: Ross Detwiler

Postby garf112 » Sat Apr 21, 2012 9:46 pm

Neato Torpedo wrote:
Ender wrote:
Magnus_CA wrote:
I expect more out of you. :-{

He has the pedigree, the park, and he's strung together three quality starts. I'm buying him up where I can.


He has faced crappy teams, he is on a mediocre team and his peripherals don't suggest the stats he has produced.

No one's peripherals will suggest an 0.56 ERA is sustainable. However, between FIP, xFIP, and SIERA, none are over 2.74 on the year, which is still very good. His swinging strike and called strike rates are both up, and it's not like his 4.28 SIERA last year was particularly bad. I'm not expecting him to be an ace, but a 3.85/1.25/155/12 season is both reasonable as a prediction and great for the back of a fantasy rotation.


Have to agree with Neato and others in the Detwiler camp. Guy has been a big prospect before. Decent 7.75 K/9 in the minors. Injured for much of 2010, so 2012 is his second full season coming off the injury. Was a #6 overall draft pick. His pitchfx data looks improved based on movement and mph difference between fastballs and changes of speed.
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Re: Ross Detwiler

Postby Ender » Sun Apr 22, 2012 12:33 am

RedHopeful wrote:I actually feel better about Detwiler now. Ender hated on Ogando pretty much all of last year. ;-)



Good for you, guess you missed the 4.48 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 4 wins, mediocre K rate and general fact that Ogando wasn't worth owning in the 2nd half just like I said from last year~. Find it odd that you point to a case where I was 100% correct to discredit my opinion.

Detwiler has not shown the ability to produce swings and misses on a consistent basis even in the minors, so to begin with you have the fact he isn't going to be great in K rate kind of hurting his value. His control has been erratic and is probably the biggest wild card, some years it has been great and some it has been very average. He is a little bit of a ground ball pitcher which is good for ERA but is going to limit his WHIP most likely and the teams offense and defense aren't all that good which will suppress his value a little bit more. He is a fine matchup play, he is fine in an NL only league, he is fine in a deep league but if he is a major part of your team in say a 12 team mixed league your team needs pitching help, that is all I'm saying. In my 14 team mixed league there are at least a dozen pitchers I'd pick over him to play full time on the FA list and if you just play matchups there are 20 or 30 to choose from. He isn't worthless but he just isn't someone to be excited about owning either.
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Re: Ross Detwiler

Postby beezer » Sun Apr 22, 2012 10:03 am

I just picked him up in my h2h 14 team mixed league. I had him down the stretch last year in my championship run and I was very pleased with him. His has done well on every level, the numbers speak for themselves. Now, with the Nats being much improved, I expect him to keep on doing well. His strikeout numbers are not going to impress anyone but he is a quality SP. The only thing that could derail him is Chien-Ming Wang coming back to claim the 5th spot.
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Re: Ross Detwiler

Postby RedHopeful » Sun Apr 22, 2012 2:31 pm

Ender wrote:
RedHopeful wrote:I actually feel better about Detwiler now. Ender hated on Ogando pretty much all of last year. ;-)


Good for you, guess you missed the 4.48 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 4 wins, mediocre K rate and general fact that Ogando wasn't worth owning in the 2nd half just like I said from last year~. Find it odd that you point to a case where I was 100% correct to discredit my opinion.

At the start of June, you stated none of it was for real. Besides the awful month of August, he was more than serviceable for fantasy purposes. Whatever though, as you seem more stringent than most expecting too much from guys outside the top 100(ish). Just like Ogando, Detwiler is a guy who was picked off the WW and could likely help fantasy teams for at least decent stretches of a season.
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Re: Ross Detwiler

Postby jefferey13 » Sun Apr 22, 2012 3:29 pm

Ya sorry Ender, not sure why you are fighting this so much. He's been pitching well and fits very well for spot starts. I mean who is your rotation that you won't even consider him? I get 10 starts a week and he's a good fit. I picked him up for the MIA game will start him vs SD this week.
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Re: Ross Detwiler

Postby I Stumped the Schwab » Sun Apr 22, 2012 4:19 pm

Ender not once has anyone ever said he would be a major part of everyones rotation. Quite obviously if he was you would have a serious problem, but that is not what anyone is saying. Every team needs depth, a back end pitcher who can make contributions. And If he can't make it a full season, I don't care. If I can get quality production for half a season, I will take that in a heart beat and just pick up someone else whenever he falters.
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Re: Ross Detwiler

Postby J35J » Mon Apr 23, 2012 8:11 am

Neato Torpedo wrote:
Ender wrote:
Magnus_CA wrote:
I expect more out of you. :-{

He has the pedigree, the park, and he's strung together three quality starts. I'm buying him up where I can.


He has faced crappy teams, he is on a mediocre team and his peripherals don't suggest the stats he has produced.

No one's peripherals will suggest an 0.56 ERA is sustainable. However, between FIP, xFIP, and SIERA, none are over 2.74 on the year, which is still very good. His swinging strike and called strike rates are both up, and it's not like his 4.28 SIERA last year was particularly bad. I'm not expecting him to be an ace, but a 3.85/1.25/155/12 season is both reasonable as a prediction and great for the back of a fantasy rotation.

+1

I Stumped the Schwab wrote:Ender not once has anyone ever said he would be a major part of everyones rotation. Quite obviously if he was you would have a serious problem, but that is not what anyone is saying. Every team needs depth, a back end pitcher who can make contributions. And If he can't make it a full season, I don't care. If I can get quality production for half a season, I will take that in a heart beat and just pick up someone else whenever he falters.

+1


But yeah, he's got no risk(FA pickup) and has been pitching well(ride the hot streak)...if you need the pitching help, you could do worse for sure.
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Re: Ross Detwiler

Postby West » Mon Apr 23, 2012 8:28 am

While Ender has sounded very negative so far I do agree with him in that Detwiler should be viewed as a serviceable starter in deeper leagues and to temper your expectations. He looks like a good bet for decent ratios and 12 wins or so, but I wouldn't get too carried away.
There's a lot of guys out there who are off to strong starts like Harrison, Humber, Detwiler, Lohse, Colon, etc. They will probably be seeing corrections to their ERA shortly and people should be cautious with who they throw out there. You have take into account the offenses they have gone up against when looking at the numbers.
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