I just grabbed him. I saw Ichiros numbers last season and I think he can at least equal that. Am I crazy? Doesn't Vlad, G. Anderson, and Glaus mean he's a lock to produce: 20Hr 110runs 80rbi 25sb .310BA
by Absolutely Adequate » Thu Apr 01, 2004 11:18 pm
To answer your original question: Yes, you're crazy. No if's, and's, or but's about it. If he equals those numbers, I'll eat my hat. He had a lower OBP last year than Rey Ordonez. Rey Ordonez! He will not equal Ichiro numbers.
Absolutely Adequate wrote:To answer your original question: Yes, you're crazy. No if's, and's, or but's about it. If he equals those numbers, I'll eat my hat. He had a lower OBP last year than Rey Ordonez. Rey Ordonez! He will not equal Ichiro numbers.
No way, no how.
Well Erstad definetly won't equal Ichiro's numbers but to be fair in the Rey Ordonez comparison I think Rey only played about 10 games last year.
actually, erstad is something of a sleeper because he hasnt had a good year in 3 years. Ok maybe he is a fish or a bum or crrrap. But i dont think a guy like that would be so bad on say... my team?
Bronxxbomber what awkward comparisons you have just made. Never ever compare him to ichiro especially when he could fetch a guy like andruw jones!
Forget the man crush. I drop what I'm doing to watch Zack Greinke pitch.
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bronxxbomber wrote:I just grabbed him. I saw Ichiros numbers last season and I think he can at least equal that. Am I crazy? Doesn't Vlad, G. Anderson, and Glaus mean he's a lock to produce: 20Hr 110runs 80rbi 25sb .310BA
that's what i'm saying! i mean, hitting in front of those guys, esp. vlad, i think he come close in getting 100R and will definitely see alot of pitches.
can anyone else add to this thread?
Post your link, I will answer yours to the best of my knowledge.
Erstad played the last 3 years on a battered body. Playing CF killed his body and he was always banged up. He was never 100% when he played CF because of his style of play. He is balls to the wall out there and would beat himself up out there. I think this year his knees and body in general will be in great shape and that should help his offense out.
If he just gets his average up to .280 he will score a lot of runs with the batter behind him. I do think he can push .300 this year.
He has never come CLOSE to that production in 6 years on either side of that.
The three years before his career year, his had a .282 Avg, .340 OBB and a .436 SLG with 89 runs, 19 steals and 71 RBIs
The three years since his career year he has had a .264 Avg, 318 OBP and a .361 SLG with 93 runs & 58 RBIs and 23 steals (projecting 2003 stats over a full year).
The most telling thing here are two stats:
1) It used to be that 10% of his hits would go for extra bases. Since his career year, that number is down to 6% - almost half the production.
2) Over the past few years, he has been taking less walks. He used to walk about every 12 at bats, but now is walking once in every 20 at bats.
So what can he do batting at the top of that lineup?
Batting average will be his weakness... probably around .260-.270 if healthy. 20-25 steals is reasonable, as is 100 runs. But RBIs would be in the range of 80. Homers, based on the trend, will be around 15.
On the other hand, Ichiro will get 120 runs, 40 steals, a .320 BA and around 70 RBIs.
I'd call Erstad a poor man's Ichiro, but no way he is going to equal Ichiro's productivity.
Erstad won't be Ichiro, I won't argue that. but Erstad isn't a one year wonder. In the season's prior to his .355 average he hit...
97: in 500+ ABs he hit .299 16 HR and 77 RBI with 23 SBs.
98: close to 600 ABs he hit .296 with 19 HR 80 RBI and 20 SBs....
'99 was a bad year then in 2000 he had his monster year. However, in 97-2000 he wasn't an everyday CF. He played mostly LF and 1B then. When he isn't playing CF his number ALWAYS are better than the years he plays CF.
He has never come CLOSE to that production in 6 years on either side of that.
The three years before his career year, his had a .282 Avg, .340 OBB and a .436 SLG with 89 runs, 19 steals and 71 RBIs
The three years since his career year he has had a .264 Avg, 318 OBP and a .361 SLG with 93 runs & 58 RBIs and 23 steals (projecting 2003 stats over a full year).
The most telling thing here are two stats:
1) It used to be that 10% of his hits would go for extra bases. Since his career year, that number is down to 6% - almost half the production. 2) Over the past few years, he has been taking less walks. He used to walk about every 12 at bats, but now is walking once in every 20 at bats.
So what can he do batting at the top of that lineup? Batting average will be his weakness... probably around .260-.270 if healthy. 20-25 steals is reasonable, as is 100 runs. But RBIs would be in the range of 80. Homers, based on the trend, will be around 15.
On the other hand, Ichiro will get 120 runs, 40 steals, a .320 BA and around 70 RBIs.
I'd call Erstad a poor man's Ichiro, but no way he is going to equal Ichiro's productivity.
I agree with your Erstad projection, but disagree with Ichiro's stats. He will be in the range of 35 steals and will be LUCKY to bat .310. Pitchers have figured him out, his days of batting .320 or above are over. I think he is overrated kinda...I'd rather have Pierre (on my fantasy team) anyday. You get 20 more steals and a very similar average.
Erstad will have a decent year IMO. I could see him pushing .300 (his career stats don't necessarily apply). As others have mentioned, he was banged up a lot. Plus he has never had Vlad waiting in the on-deck circle while he's at the plate. As an added benefit, he will qualify at 1B once he plays 15 games there. How many 1B in the league will get you 20 steals? None.
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by bronxxbomber » Thu Apr 01, 2004 10:18 pm 
