Absolutely Adequate wrote:Yes, you're crazy. No if's, and's, or but's about it. If he equals those numbers, I'll eat my hat.
To better that - if he matches those numbers I'll eat his hat when he passes it.
Erstad is a one year wonder. Just look at his stats by year.
2000 - 676 At Bats, .355 Avg, .409 OBP, .541 SLG, 28 steals, 121 runs, 100 RBIs.
He has never come CLOSE to that production in 6 years on either side of that.
The three years before his career year, his had a .282 Avg, .340 OBB and a .436 SLG with 89 runs, 19 steals and 71 RBIs
The three years since his career year he has had a .264 Avg, 318 OBP and a .361 SLG with 93 runs & 58 RBIs and 23 steals (projecting 2003 stats over a full year).
The most telling thing here are two stats:
1) It used to be that 10% of his hits would go for extra bases. Since his career year, that number is down to 6% - almost half the production.
2) Over the past few years, he has been taking less walks. He used to walk about every 12 at bats, but now is walking once in every 20 at bats.
So what can he do batting at the top of that lineup?
Batting average will be his weakness... probably around .260-.270 if healthy. 20-25 steals is reasonable, as is 100 runs. But RBIs would be in the range of 80. Homers, based on the trend, will be around 15.
On the other hand, Ichiro will get 120 runs, 40 steals, a .320 BA and around 70 RBIs.
I'd call Erstad a poor man's Ichiro, but no way he is going to equal Ichiro's productivity.