Lincecum starting to look average !

[Rollotommasi]

Soooo, what happened to the "it's only April", "he'll be fine" "I'm not concerned" brigades ???

[bigh0rt]

Soooo, what happened to the "it's only April", "he'll be fine" "I'm not concerned" brigades ???

Are you implying that that is the wrong approach to take with a proven stud pitched in the first two weeks of a season where there is no evidence to the contrary? I'm not sure what the goal is here.

The bottom line for me is I'm still buying if the price is right, and in a H2H League probably willing to pay more than what most would consider 'right' in price. The guy has a 2.93 FIP, 3.50 xFIP, 3.71 SIERA, the highest K/9 he's had since '09, and a BABIP .057 higher than his career average, while he maintains a ridiculous 59.3% strand rate -- 16% lower than his career average. With that staring me in the face, I have no reason to believe he doesn't turn it around.

[jcook3127]

Soooo, what happened to the "it's only April", "he'll be fine" "I'm not concerned" brigades ???

Are you implying that that is the wrong approach to take with a proven stud pitched in the first two weeks of a season where there is no evidence to the contrary? I'm not sure what the goal is here.

The bottom line for me is I'm still buying if the price is right, and in a H2H League probably willing to pay more than what most would consider 'right' in price. The guy has a 2.93 FIP, 3.50 xFIP, 3.71 SIERA, the highest K/9 he's had since '09, and a BABIP .057 higher than his career average, while he maintains a ridiculous 59.3% strand rate -- 16% lower than his career average. With that staring me in the face, I have no reason to believe he doesn't turn it around.

That's all well and good...but in my opinion the only number we need to be focused on right now is BB/9.

Lince pitching 89-90 is not an issue at all....Lince pitching 89-90 with a 4.8 BB/9 is a huge problem..

I have a re-draft offer of Lince/Choo for my Trout/Sale on the table right now...at first glance it seems awful for me but I'm worried about Sale's durability...but there's no way I can take that deal without being confident in Lincecum...right now he's making that very difficult

[jfg]

I'm just not concerned at all. It would be one thing if he wasn't striking out guys, but he is. It would be another thing if he was giving up 10+ hits a game but he's not. This has everything to do with control and once he takes care of that he's an ace again.

[jackie hayes]

I'm concerned... Yeah, he's had some bad luck, with babip and strand rate. But the strikeouts are less impressive considering the longer innings (I think his k/pa is down, after suffering a big drop...last year?). He's still getting them, but he hasn't reversed his trend. The walks, the velocity...concerned.

SIERA tries to correct for all the luck factors, and it still had him at a 3.70 before today's game. Which isn't disastrous, but it takes the shine off.

[Rollotommasi]

I'm concerned... Yeah, he's had some bad luck, with babip and strand rate. But the strikeouts are less impressive considering the longer innings (I think his k/pa is down, after suffering a big drop...last year?). He's still getting them, but he hasn't reversed his trend. The walks, the velocity...concerned.

SIERA tries to correct for all the luck factors, and it still had him at a 3.70 before today's game. Which isn't disastrous, but it takes the shine off.

Don'y worry, according to some experts here "there's no reason to believe he doesn't turn it around".

[mweir145]

He doesn't look like the same pitcher on the mound at all, particularly stuff-wise. I wouldn't trade for him.

[Syfo-Dyas]

I'm concerned... Yeah, he's had some bad luck, with babip and strand rate. But the strikeouts are less impressive considering the longer innings (I think his k/pa is down, after suffering a big drop...last year?). He's still getting them, but he hasn't reversed his trend. The walks, the velocity...concerned.

SIERA tries to correct for all the luck factors, and it still had him at a 3.70 before today's game. Which isn't disastrous, but it takes the shine off.

Don'y worry, according to some experts here "there's no reason to believe he doesn't turn it around".

His K/9 is up, HR/FB is down, FB% is down, SIERA, xFIP, BABIP indicates that he aint so bad. LOB % is ridiculous.
If you want to believe that, you buy low.
Or
he is pitching badly, and those SABR stats just not able to deal with it.
Pitch FX velocity and values indicate that the problem is his FB velocity that makes his Changeup and Fastball combo suffer, due to the small gap between FB and CH speed, that does not fool hitters anymore, since they don't have to be ready for a mid 90's FB, that makes his FB more hittable and it's easier to adjust on a Changeup.
Pitchvalues shows that CH takes a huge value loss, despite better movement than in previous seasons.
The lower speed on the FB makes it easier to locate, that should explain the the higher GB rate and the lower HR/FB rate.
And he throws his curveball instead of his slider more often.
Everyone should be worried.
He is not the Lincecum he was.
But no stat can tell whats the reason, so it is possible that he can revert to his former self.
And LOB % should improve, in any case.

[colt4523]

Between Timmy and Lester, I have no hair left. Going into the season, I thought I had the best staff I have ever had...guess not

[A Fleshner Fantasy]

Between Timmy and Lester, I have no hair left. Going into the season, I thought I had the best staff I have ever had...guess not

I've never felt closer to you.