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Who is going to keep this up?

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Re: Who is going to keep this up?

Postby HOOTIE » Fri Apr 13, 2012 7:43 am

Quackman wrote:All the jackson haters,,dam. If you follow the tigers you know how much they worked with Jackson in the offseason. They cut out his big step he used to take at the plate. Basically fewer moving parts the better/ Its a pretty great sign when he starts off this good after these changes are made. Put Fielder in the lineup and having even 10% smarter at-bats and he could really be a monster this year.

I think he will bat much closer to .300 than last years .250. Maybe .280-90. Ill go with 120run+ with the best offense in baseball. Also throw in 20hr+ and 30sb+ potential.

Ender is just clueless. Blindly following numbers is not the way to go, especially when it comes to finding the next big talent.


Next big talent?
20+ hrs?
Have you read any of Enders 6,000 posts?
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Re: Who is going to keep this up?

Postby CharlatanSin » Fri Apr 13, 2012 8:34 am

I know I'm starting to sound evangelical at this point, but you guys are really underrating LaRoche. "Filler?" He's not going to be a first or third or sixth round pick, sure. But assuming he keeps healthy (and there's no reason to assume he won't, he's averaged 146 games over his career not counting last year), we're probably looking at 25 HR, 90 RBI, .265-.275. Could definitely push 100 RBI hitting cleanup in a not awful Nats lineup.

In a standard 12 team mixed, where does that line put him? Certainly an excellent option at CI at a minimum. Those stats put him solidly in Ike Davis and Freddie Freeman territory, and people are fighting about which of them is the 2nd best 1B in the NL. Once again, we're underrating the consistent veteran in fantasy. LaRoche may not have a very high ceiling, but he has a very high floor.
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Re: Who is going to keep this up?

Postby Garry26 » Fri Apr 13, 2012 8:37 am

If you have garbage on your bench, now is the time to grab these hot hands and hope they're on the cusp on good years.

In order of preference
Pena- Hes always had the power. Just not the avg
LaRoche- He's given good numbers before
Infante- a 2B who does better than acceptable is is hard to come by
Encarnacion- 3B shallow. Always look for a 3B doing well
Freese - 3B shallow....yatta yatta yatta
Shafer - hot hand? Sure I would grab him and pray if i had the room

Basically you grab and pray. Either based on what you need, or who can give the most power numbers. Pena the best here because he has always given power numbers. Only reason hes on the wire is because of his lousy batting average. That is unless someone wanted to make a team of Santana, Pena, Uggla, Mark Reynolds, Hardy, Werth, Willingham, Dunn...and go for the lowest team batting average ever.

Then LaRoche. 2006, or 2007, or 2008 numbers from the wire? I'll take it!

Infante- because hes a 2b and if he has a good year, you get good numbers from a position you were just hoping not to get hosed in (unless youre one of the lucky few that got a top 2B)

Encarnacion and Freese- Encarnacion has posted better power numbers so hes preferable if he adds average to that. I think hes the safer bet. 3B is shallow and shallower if someone in your league did like me and grabbed two 3Bs to weaken other teams (the extra one looks good in my utl and deprives an opponent).

Shafer- well good numbers are good numbers. I would take them wherever I can get them.

Nows the chance for those with people on the DL, or garbage on the bench. Jump on the hot hands. Jump on the right one and you get yourself middle draft quality off the wire. Happens every year.
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Re: Who is going to keep this up?

Postby Tavish » Fri Apr 13, 2012 9:16 am

The guy who has me really curious is Hafner. But then again he seems to catch my attention every season right before he misses 40 games with an injury.
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Re: Who is going to keep this up?

Postby Quackman » Fri Apr 13, 2012 12:21 pm

HOOTIE wrote:
Quackman wrote:All the jackson haters,,dam. If you follow the tigers you know how much they worked with Jackson in the offseason. They cut out his big step he used to take at the plate. Basically fewer moving parts the better/ Its a pretty great sign when he starts off this good after these changes are made. Put Fielder in the lineup and having even 10% smarter at-bats and he could really be a monster this year.

I think he will bat much closer to .300 than last years .250. Maybe .280-90. Ill go with 120run+ with the best offense in baseball. Also throw in 20hr+ and 30sb+ potential.

Ender is just clueless. Blindly following numbers is not the way to go, especially when it comes to finding the next big talent.


Next big talent?
20+ hrs?
Have you read any of Enders 6,000 posts?


Im not impressed if he is just vomiting stats with 6000 posts. He doesnt know this player or the Tigers obviously. Ill come back and quote some of these posts in September.
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Re: Who is going to keep this up?

Postby Ender » Fri Apr 13, 2012 12:28 pm

You could be right Quackman, he could certainly take a step forward in skills and just be downright better this year. That is a gut instinct type of thing in general. I'm just saying if he keeps playing the way he has there is no reason to expect him to hit for a good AVG.

As for the LaRoche filler thing yeah that is all he really is, he is a low upside guy you pick because you need to fill the position. While he very well could hit 25 HR and get 90 RBI he will hit below .275, won't steal any bases and may very well hurt you in runs. You are left with a very mediocre player. If he doesn't play every day because of the deep lineup it just chips away at that value some more. He is worth owning but the end product really isn't much for upside and it isn't amazing for steady production, he is just a guy that should be on a team. Your roster is going to have some filler guys on it so there isn't anything wrong with it, not every pick can be a big upside guy.
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Re: Who is going to keep this up?

Postby CyboNinja » Fri Apr 13, 2012 12:53 pm

Awesome Jackson is awesome mmk. Get on the bandwagon or get ran over by it. I doubt we'll ever see 20+ HRs from him but I like his odds to crack .300 this year. Give me 10 HRs, 25 SBs (should be 50 but Leyland is an old man who don't like to run), 65 RBIs, and 110 Rs to boot and you got a top 75 player. He has already shown his new approach at the plate is a success and his confidence is sky high.


Any of the doubters out there care to make an o/u wager on his avg for 2012? How about hits? Give me the over on both and I'll take any action you sucka fools wanna send my way!

AVG- o/u .285
Hits- o/u 180

Put your $$$ where your mouth (err fingers) is all you Jackson haters! Papa needs a bigger bankroll for Football season!
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Re: Who is going to keep this up?

Postby Curtis Pride » Fri Apr 13, 2012 2:22 pm

I am very amused by people who think that someone who strikes out 160-180 times a year is going to hit .300

He had a nearly .400 BABIP in 2010 and still couldn't hit .300. Even last year, he had a .340 BABIP, and he still hit under .250.

edit. And an over/under of 180 hits for the leadoff hitter of the Tigers isn't really that high.

A typical leadoff hitter in the AL averages 680 AB. The tigers leadoff guy will exceed 700 AB.

If Jackson is healthy and gets 700 AB, 180 hits will give him a sub .260 BA.
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Re: Who is going to keep this up?

Postby CharlatanSin » Fri Apr 13, 2012 2:57 pm

Ender wrote:As for the LaRoche filler thing yeah that is all he really is, he is a low upside guy you pick because you need to fill the position. While he very well could hit 25 HR and get 90 RBI he will hit below .275, won't steal any bases and may very well hurt you in runs. You are left with a very mediocre player. If he doesn't play every day because of the deep lineup it just chips away at that value some more. He is worth owning but the end product really isn't much for upside and it isn't amazing for steady production, he is just a guy that should be on a team. Your roster is going to have some filler guys on it so there isn't anything wrong with it, not every pick can be a big upside guy.


Fair enough. I guess I just think of filler more as a guy who's literally just there because you missed all possible value at a position and you need a warm body that might not completely kill you. A Placido Polanco par excellence. A guy like LaRoche isn't going to do anything he hasn't done before, but I can't name 5 NL first basemen or 12 MLB first basemen who I'm expecting to have a better year, can you?
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Re: Who is going to keep this up?

Postby mkultra » Fri Apr 13, 2012 3:30 pm

CharlatanSin wrote: A guy like LaRoche isn't going to do anything he hasn't done before, but I can't name 5 NL first basemen or 12 MLB first basemen who I'm expecting to have a better year, can you?


Pujols
Miggy
Votto
Fielder
AGonzo
Tex
Santana*
Napoli*
Konerko
Hosmer
Young*
Davis
Lind
Sanchez

(* = qualifies at 1B, but you're probably playing him somewhere else)

That doesn't even include guys whose upside could put them well ahead of LaRoche this year as well:
Morales
Morneau
Trumbo
Dunn
Pena
E5*
Goldschmidt

I agree with you that in an NL-only league he's an interesting play, but there's plenty of mixed-league talent who won't be riding the pine come June.
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