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Who is going to keep this up?

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Re: Who is going to keep this up?

Postby Ender » Wed Apr 11, 2012 11:00 pm

Jackson has a career .374 BABIP in 1300+ PAs, so people are eventually going to have to stop predicting a terrible average just because of his Ks


It takes 3 full seasons to even suggest it is stabilized, he is a lifetime .275 hitter so even if he can maintain the BABIP he hurts you in AVG and the year he only had a .340 he hit .250 which is probably the more realistic projection for his AVG. If you are going to use advanced stats at least use them properly. He is young enough to lower his Ks and improve his AVG but nothing in his current skill set points to him having even a replacement level AVG.
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Re: Who is going to keep this up?

Postby HOOTIE » Wed Apr 11, 2012 11:53 pm

Freese and EE are legit
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Re: Who is going to keep this up?

Postby AussieDodger » Thu Apr 12, 2012 2:08 am

bigh0rt wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:I wish I had more hands so I could give Bryan LaHair 4 thumbs down.

That was coooold blooded


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Re: Who is going to keep this up?

Postby Skin Blues » Thu Apr 12, 2012 8:27 am

Ender wrote:
Jackson has a career .374 BABIP in 1300+ PAs, so people are eventually going to have to stop predicting a terrible average just because of his Ks


It takes 3 full seasons to even suggest it is stabilized, he is a lifetime .275 hitter so even if he can maintain the BABIP he hurts you in AVG and the year he only had a .340 he hit .250 which is probably the more realistic projection for his AVG. If you are going to use advanced stats at least use them properly. He is young enough to lower his Ks and improve his AVG but nothing in his current skill set points to him having even a replacement level AVG.

You seem really angry at Austin Jackson, what did he ever do to you? Even after he gets his three full seasons worth of extremely high BABIP (and it's a foregone conclusion), will you believe it? Probably not. There'll be another excuse when that time comes, because your purpose is to prove your own theories correct rather than objectively valuing players.

And in what world is a .275 average detrimental? Replacement level average is at around .269 in a standard mixed league.
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Re: Who is going to keep this up?

Postby Curtis Pride » Thu Apr 12, 2012 1:38 pm

Encarnacion, Bonifacaio, and Pena are the three that I think can keep it up.

Freese strikes out 25% of the time and walks less than 5% of the time. I just don't think he'll keep it up long term.

Maybe .290, 20 homers.
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Re: Who is going to keep this up?

Postby juliown1028 » Thu Apr 12, 2012 3:51 pm

Josh Willingham?

I know he isn't going to hit above .300 but I feel like a lot of people were underestimating Willingham going into the season. Last season he hit 29 HRs and had 98 RBI in only 136 games (he had a 15 day DL stint) WITH THE A's. Give him some better protection/a better lineup with Mauer and Morneau/a better ballpark to hit in, and I can see him repeating it. His career avg is .262, and he hit a dismal .246 last year, so I'd expect him to end up in the .260 region. He's hit 4 HRs already, and last year it took him til April 30 to get 4 HRs. I know he may be off to a hot start, but I wouldn't say 30-100-.260 is out of the question. For him not to get there I think the main factor would be health, but if he gets at least 130 games I can see him hitting around those numbers.
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Re: Who is going to keep this up?

Postby Ender » Thu Apr 12, 2012 7:58 pm

You seem really angry at Austin Jackson, what did he ever do to you? Even after he gets his three full seasons worth of extremely high BABIP (and it's a foregone conclusion), will you believe it? Probably not. There'll be another excuse when that time comes, because your purpose is to prove your own theories correct rather than objectively valuing players.


You have this backwards. The way I value players completely ignores the player themselves. i would never take a guy just because I like him and I would never search for excuses as to why one number means something that another doesn't. The fact is it takes more time to stabilize something like BABIP than Jackson has had, it isn't uncommon at all to see a player get off to a BABIP like he has and then slip right back to more normal numbers, especially as a pretty light power hitter. It seems like you are always looking for a reason to ignore peripherals that don't agree with your initial opinion of players and to me that is almost always a mistake.
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Re: Who is going to keep this up?

Postby fantasydraftstrategy » Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:35 pm

CadensDad wrote:Ok I asked who we should panic about..... (Yes, I know we shouldn't panic this early over anyone.) So now who should we be buying up from the WW or from trades ASAP?

Freese
Jackson
Bonifacio
Pena
Infante
Encarnacion
Schafer
LaRoche
Furcal


All guys who went either undrafted or were late round picks. Who here has the ability to become a 1st rounder? who will be worth a 1st-3rd round pick next year?


You come up with some pretty good questions...considering most of these are late round draft picks or on the waiver wire, I wouldn't consider them ideal trade candidates. However, if they were on the waiver wire, I'd look at picking up Freese, Jackson, Bonifacio, and Pena. LaRoche isn't bad either. However, Jackson will probably fall off bad at some point, but Freese and Boni play positions that are shallow in depth so they are more valuable.
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Re: Who is going to keep this up?

Postby Quackman » Thu Apr 12, 2012 10:18 pm

All the jackson haters,,dam. If you follow the tigers you know how much they worked with Jackson in the offseason. They cut out his big step he used to take at the plate. Basically fewer moving parts the better/ Its a pretty great sign when he starts off this good after these changes are made. Put Fielder in the lineup and having even 10% smarter at-bats and he could really be a monster this year.

I think he will bat much closer to .300 than last years .250. Maybe .280-90. Ill go with 120run+ with the best offense in baseball. Also throw in 20hr+ and 30sb+ potential.

Ender is just clueless. Blindly following numbers is not the way to go, especially when it comes to finding the next big talent.
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Re: Who is going to keep this up?

Postby SecretAgentMan » Fri Apr 13, 2012 1:56 am

I like Freese. He will be good if he can stay on the field imo.

All the others I think you get pretty much what you expected when all is said and done. Laroche is streaky and mediocre at best. Furcal I suppose could stay healthy, but I would not bet a nickel on that happening. Bonaficio, Pena, Infante...speed with nothing else, power with a crummy avg and a borderlie WW MI. Jackson may surprise, but I doubt it. EE...not a believer....think he does his usual 250-270 with less than 20 Hrs and somewhere around 70 rbis. Schafer...more a fill-in\NL-only OF.
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