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Hellickson vs. Beachy

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Re: Hellickson vs. Beachy

Postby Ender » Wed Apr 11, 2012 9:05 am

Skin Blues wrote:Beachy made it to the 6th inning in all but 3 of his starts last year. Not bad for a rookie.

I'll take the pitcher that struck out 57 more batters in 47 less innings. ;-)

Seriously, look at these numbers: 28.6 K%, 7.8 BB% versus 15.1%, 9.3%. It's a pretty wide gap in skill.


But a skill gap that isn't supported by minor league track records. Beachy will likely K a few less this year and Hellickson a good bit more. I still like Beachy more but it isn't usually a good idea to lock in a skill set to a 1st year player. Beachy has the NL think going for him which is a pretty significant thing when compared to pitching in the AL East, though the Rays probably have the best defense in baseball which limits the damage some for their pitchers.
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Re: Hellickson vs. Beachy

Postby J35J » Wed Apr 11, 2012 9:16 am

Ender wrote:
Skin Blues wrote:Beachy made it to the 6th inning in all but 3 of his starts last year. Not bad for a rookie.

I'll take the pitcher that struck out 57 more batters in 47 less innings. ;-)

Seriously, look at these numbers: 28.6 K%, 7.8 BB% versus 15.1%, 9.3%. It's a pretty wide gap in skill.


But a skill gap that isn't supported by minor league track records. Beachy will likely K a few less this year and Hellickson a good bit more. I still like Beachy more but it isn't usually a good idea to lock in a skill set to a 1st year player. Beachy has the NL think going for him which is a pretty significant thing when compared to pitching in the AL East, though the Rays probably have the best defense in baseball which limits the damage some for their pitchers.


Yup, agreed. I expect the K% gap to shorten and the BB% gap could completely disappear. Like I said, I'd take Beachy as well but it wouldn't surprise me to see similar Wins, ERA and WHIP between the two this year.
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Re: Hellickson vs. Beachy

Postby Skin Blues » Wed Apr 11, 2012 9:37 am

Yeah that's the thing, Hellickson is entirely dependant on his defense at this point. It's a great defense, but pitching to contact without the ability to strike batters out, and hile wakling too many batters, doesn't work well long-term. His minor league numbers suggest a better K rate, but in order to do that his BB rate will likely also rise as he'll have to nibble more. The big deal about Hellickson last year was that he was ready for the big leagues, it wasn't that he had raw, unharnessed potential. Same as Daniel Hudson, but Hudson actually pitched well.

And of course Beachy will probably K a bit less. If people expected the same K% and BB% he'd be drafted up around Sabathia and Price. He coudl still provide that value, but the risk involved puts him far down peoples' draft lists. But go back and look at pitchers with thsoe peripherals, maybe even limit it to rookies or sophomores, and find what % of them turns into busts. I'm gonna guess that it's a very low percentage. And I'm gonna guess if we do the same exercise with Hellickson's ERA, we'll see a much higher bust %.

Just for fun, I'll predict that Hellickson's ERA wil be a full run higher than Beachy's. Hellickson is already in the lead so I think this is a fair enough time to make the prediction.
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Hellickson vs. Beachy

Postby lastingsgriller » Wed Apr 11, 2012 1:24 pm

No knock on hellickson, he's a fine pitcher. But not even on the same level as beachy.
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Re: Hellickson vs. Beachy

Postby deerayfan072 » Thu Apr 12, 2012 12:13 am

Skin Blues wrote:Yeah that's the thing, Hellickson is entirely dependant on his defense at this point. It's a great defense, but pitching to contact without the ability to strike batters out, and hile wakling too many batters, doesn't work well long-term. His minor league numbers suggest a better K rate, but in order to do that his BB rate will likely also rise as he'll have to nibble more. The big deal about Hellickson last year was that he was ready for the big leagues, it wasn't that he had raw, unharnessed potential. Same as Daniel Hudson, but Hudson actually pitched well.

And of course Beachy will probably K a bit less. If people expected the same K% and BB% he'd be drafted up around Sabathia and Price. He coudl still provide that value, but the risk involved puts him far down peoples' draft lists. But go back and look at pitchers with thsoe peripherals, maybe even limit it to rookies or sophomores, and find what % of them turns into busts. I'm gonna guess that it's a very low percentage. And I'm gonna guess if we do the same exercise with Hellickson's ERA, we'll see a much higher bust %.

Just for fun, I'll predict that Hellickson's ERA wil be a full run higher than Beachy's. Hellickson is already in the lead so I think this is a fair enough time to make the prediction.



I will take the other side of this bet if you are willing to do a sig bet
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Re: Hellickson vs. Beachy

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Apr 13, 2012 9:49 am

I've had signatures disabled since probably 2004, so that's kind of irrelevant to me. I don't even know if I have a signature right now to be honest. Anyway you can drag this thread back from the dead at the end of the year and laugh at how wrong I was about Hellickson. Sound fair?
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Re: Hellickson vs. Beachy

Postby AussieDodger » Fri Apr 13, 2012 10:19 am

Skin Blues wrote:I've had signatures disabled since probably 2004, so that's kind of irrelevant to me. I don't even know if I have a signature right now to be honest. Anyway you can drag this thread back from the dead at the end of the year and laugh at how wrong I was about Hellickson. Sound fair?


Chickening out already?

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Re: Re: Hellickson vs. Beachy

Postby wrveres » Fri Apr 13, 2012 10:31 am

deerayfan072 wrote:I will take the other side of this bet if you are willing to do a sig bet
eehh, I wouldn't do that. He has a history of not honoring bets
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Re: Hellickson vs. Beachy

Postby Tennessee Jed » Fri Apr 13, 2012 8:52 pm

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Re: Re: Hellickson vs. Beachy

Postby deerayfan072 » Sat Apr 14, 2012 8:30 pm

wrveres wrote:
deerayfan072 wrote:I will take the other side of this bet if you are willing to do a sig bet
eehh, I wouldn't do that. He has a history of not honoring bets[/quote

Thanks for the heads up.

We can just bump the thread at the end of the season for fun
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