2012 Cafe MLB Betting Thread - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

2012 Cafe MLB Betting Thread

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Re: 2012 Cafe MLB Betting Thread

Postby Snakes Gould » Thu Apr 05, 2012 1:40 am

Thursday April 5th

Apr 05 901 BRAVES (ATL) T. HANSON -R -110 o7EV +1½-225
12:10 PM 902 METS (NYM) J. SANTANA -L -110 u7-120 -1½+195

Apr 05 903 PHILLIES (PHI) R. HALLADAY -R -175 o7+105 -1½EV
12:35 PM 904 PIRATES (PIT) E. BEDARD -L +155 u7-125 +1½-120

Apr 05 905 NATIONALS (WAS) S. STRASBURG -R -160
1:20 PM 906 CUBS (CHI) R. DEMPSTER -R +140

Apr 05 907 MARLINS (MIA) M. BUEHRLE -L +130 o7½-120 +1½-160
3:05 PM 908 REDS (CIN) J. CUETO -R -150 u7½EV -1½+140

Apr 05 909 DODGERS (LAD) C. KERSHAW -L -150 o6+105 -1½+115
6:05 PM 910 PADRES (SD) E. VOLQUEZ -R +130 u6-125 +1½-135


Apr 05 911 RED SOX (BOS) J. LESTER -L +125 o7-105 +1½-175
12:05 PM 912 TIGERS (DET) J. VERLANDER -R -145 u7-115 -1½+155

Apr 05 913 BLUE JAYS (TOR) R. ROMERO -L -120 o7-125 -1½+135
2:05 PM 914 INDIANS (CLE) J. MASTERSON -R EV u7+105 +1½-155

The Mets are not good. That's pretty clear. Johan is not going to go deep, even if he pitches well. The Mets 'pen is not good. The flipside, Hanson is solid, their lineup is solid, and their 'pen is good. AND at even money? yes please.

Why in the world are the Marlins playing 1 game series at night, and flying 1100 miles to play a 4:00 game the next day? This is reason enough to bet against the fish but going against a very good Reds lineup and not laying too much chalk at -150? pick number 2.

Kershaw at -150 against the Pads. Seems too easy. The padres arent good. Volquez isnt good. The lineup isnt good. I'll lay the chalk.

Im also going to take the under in the Phils/Pirates game. Until the Phillies show me they can score without Howard and Utley, I'm going to assume they're a marginal offensive team. The Phillies also never hit lefties well, although Rollins and Victorino are both better from the right side of the plate. Halladay is Hallday. I'll bet on a 3-2 type of game at PNC Park laying a little bit of extra juice.

Not a big fan of betting 3 favs, but I'll bite on Opening Day.
Image

SIGS!

Shane Victorino wrote:“We keep fighting,” Victorino said. “We keep plugging along.”
Snakes Gould
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
EditorCafeholicCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterGolden Eagle EyeWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 16051
Joined: 1 Nov 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Eternal Bliss

Re: 2012 Cafe MLB Betting Thread

Postby AussieDodger » Thu Apr 05, 2012 2:22 am

Snakes Gould wrote:

Why in the world are the Marlins playing 1 game series at night, and flying 1100 miles to play a 4:00 game the next day? This is reason enough to bet against the fish but going against a very good Reds lineup and not laying too much chalk at -150?

Kershaw at -150 against the Pads. Seems too easy. The padres arent good. Volquez isnt good. The lineup isnt good. I'll lay the chalk.


I parlayed these two into each other and got odds of $2.86 from Sportingbet. :-L ;-D

April games screw me over every year without fail (last year was atrocious), so I'm starting small this year.
$4 (which is probably like $70 USA by now) :-b
ATTENTION LONG-TIMERS! NEW FBC: http://fbc2.freeforums.net/
AussieDodger
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterEagle Eye
Posts: 11363
(Past Year: 25)
Joined: 22 Jan 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: What do you mean, Flash Gordon approaching?

Re: 2012 Cafe MLB Betting Thread

Postby Snakes Gould » Thu Apr 05, 2012 2:41 am

AussieDodger wrote:
Snakes Gould wrote:

Why in the world are the Marlins playing 1 game series at night, and flying 1100 miles to play a 4:00 game the next day? This is reason enough to bet against the fish but going against a very good Reds lineup and not laying too much chalk at -150?

Kershaw at -150 against the Pads. Seems too easy. The padres arent good. Volquez isnt good. The lineup isnt good. I'll lay the chalk.


I parlayed these two into each other and got odds of $2.86 from Sportingbet. :-L ;-D

April games screw me over every year without fail (last year was atrocious), so I'm starting small this year.
$4 (which is probably like $70 USA by now) :-b


;-D although now im rethinking it :*)
Image

SIGS!

Shane Victorino wrote:“We keep fighting,” Victorino said. “We keep plugging along.”
Snakes Gould
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
EditorCafeholicCafe WriterCafe RankerGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterGolden Eagle EyeWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly WinnerMatchup Meltdown SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 16051
Joined: 1 Nov 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Eternal Bliss

Re: 2012 Cafe MLB Betting Thread

Postby Gags Sports » Thu Apr 05, 2012 6:43 am

Snakes Gould wrote:
AussieDodger wrote:
Snakes Gould wrote:

Why in the world are the Marlins playing 1 game series at night, and flying 1100 miles to play a 4:00 game the next day? This is reason enough to bet against the fish but going against a very good Reds lineup and not laying too much chalk at -150?

Kershaw at -150 against the Pads. Seems too easy. The padres arent good. Volquez isnt good. The lineup isnt good. I'll lay the chalk.


I parlayed these two into each other and got odds of $2.86 from Sportingbet. :-L ;-D

April games screw me over every year without fail (last year was atrocious), so I'm starting small this year.
$4 (which is probably like $70 USA by now) :-b


;-D although now im rethinking it :*)


Always a lot of value in underdogs early in the season until Vegas learns more about the teams.
Gags Sports
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
Eagle EyePick 3 Weekly WinnerSweet 16 SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 1713
(Past Year: 12)
Joined: 9 Nov 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 2012 Cafe MLB Betting Thread

Postby Inukchuk » Thu Apr 05, 2012 7:47 am

4 pages in and no gnarboots. I'm done reading this thread.
Image
abrunn11... the place to go for all your sig needs...
Inukchuk
General Manager
General Manager

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 4014
Joined: 24 Jan 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Coming down on this hospital like the hammer of Thor

Re: 2012 Cafe MLB Betting Thread

Postby Mookie4ever » Thu Apr 05, 2012 8:16 am

Gags Sports wrote:
Mookie4ever wrote:Opening season props are sucker bets. You're paying a minimum of 25% juice on every one of those. Plus you pay now and if you win you don't get your winnings until more than 6 months down the road. You should be looking for something like 10% juice and never more than 15.


The avg juice for a prop bet is 15% (-115). That's not outrageous in my opinion. Yes there are sometimes odds that are -125 or higher, but that also means the opposite side of that bet is -105 which "appears"to be a value. Some books (at least the smart ones) will put the -125 on the side that is seeing most of the action, leaving the other side with what appears to be a value at -105. When a bettor sees the odds at -125, their perception is different than if the odds were -115 or -110.


thanks for the lesson. My point was that props have increased juice for no reason. They are more of a coin flip than game lines. They are also the more long term bets so that in addition to the increased juice you are also financing them for a long term. So there is no reason for pay extra for a prop bet. They are sucker bets or something that you do just for fun. Nobody does it with the expectation of making money.

As for the "smart books", there is no such thing as a not smart book, they don't care who wins they only want to see the action divided equally so that there is no scenario in which they lose.


Gags Sports wrote:Always a lot of value in underdogs early in the season until Vegas learns more about the teams.


This is not true at all. There is no value. Vegas doesn't care if Halladay is a 5 run underdog pitching against the Rockies' fifth starter so long as half the money is on the Rockies' scrub. If an opening line is out of whack the so called sharp money will come in until the line readjusts. If the betting on a game is fishy and too contrary to what their lines makers predict they will simply take the game off the board and return your money before the game starts.
Image
Mookie4ever
Head Moderator
Head Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe SpotterHockey ModBasketball ModFootball ModMatchup Meltdown ChampionPick 3 Weekly WinnerSweet 16 SurvivorLucky Ladders Weekly Winner
Posts: 19545
(Past Year: 277)
Joined: 17 Dec 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Hakuna, Montana

Re: 2012 Cafe MLB Betting Thread

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Apr 05, 2012 10:38 am

The Mets are the best Opening Day team ever. They may not win another game all season, but they'll be atop the NL East when today closes. No, I literally have no metrics to back this up. But they're winning today. Johan FTW.
Image
bigh0rt
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 24818
(Past Year: 348)
Joined: 3 Jun 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Crowding The Plate

Re: 2012 Cafe MLB Betting Thread

Postby BronXBombers51 » Thu Apr 05, 2012 10:46 am

bigh0rt wrote:The Mets are the best Opening Day team ever. They may not win another game all season, but they'll be atop the NL East when today closes. No, I literally have no metrics to back this up. But they're winning today. Johan FTW.


You heard him, boys. Bet the farm on Atlanta.
25
BronXBombers51
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
Mock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 11949
(Past Year: 54)
Joined: 8 Apr 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 2012 Cafe MLB Betting Thread

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Apr 05, 2012 11:25 am

BronXBombers51 wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:The Mets are the best Opening Day team ever. They may not win another game all season, but they'll be atop the NL East when today closes. No, I literally have no metrics to back this up. But they're winning today. Johan FTW.


You heard him, boys. Bet the farm on Atlanta.
This is literally why I stopped gambling on baseball and the NFL. If I'm so so, meh on something, it hits always. If I'm 100% certain of an outcome, the probability of it hitting is zero... point... zero.
Image
bigh0rt
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 24818
(Past Year: 348)
Joined: 3 Jun 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Crowding The Plate

Re: 2012 Cafe MLB Betting Thread

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Apr 05, 2012 3:57 pm

bigh0rt wrote:The Mets are the best Opening Day team ever. They may not win another game all season, but they'll be atop the NL East when today closes. No, I literally have no metrics to back this up. But they're winning today. Johan FTW.
Mets Opening Day. Lock it up.
Image
bigh0rt
Hall of Fame Hero
Hall of Fame Hero

User avatar
CafeholicCafe WriterGraphics ExpertMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeInnovative MemberCafe MusketeerWeb SupporterPick 3 Weekly Winner
Posts: 24818
(Past Year: 348)
Joined: 3 Jun 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Crowding The Plate

PreviousNext

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: unioreimi and 7 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact