Gags Sports wrote:
Mookie4ever wrote:Opening season props are sucker bets. You're paying a minimum of 25% juice on every one of those. Plus you pay now and if you win you don't get your winnings until more than 6 months down the road. You should be looking for something like 10% juice and never more than 15.
The avg juice for a prop bet is 15% (-115). That's not outrageous in my opinion. Yes there are sometimes odds that are -125 or higher, but that also means the opposite side of that bet is -105 which "appears"to be a value. Some books (at least the smart ones) will put the -125 on the side that is seeing most of the action, leaving the other side with what appears to be a value at -105. When a bettor sees the odds at -125, their perception is different than if the odds were -115 or -110.
thanks for the lesson. My point was that props have increased juice for no reason. They are more of a coin flip than game lines. They are also the more long term bets so that in addition to the increased juice you are also financing them for a long term. So there is no reason for pay extra for a prop bet. They are sucker bets or something that you do just for fun. Nobody does it with the expectation of making money.
As for the "smart books", there is no such thing as a not smart book, they don't care who wins they only want to see the action divided equally so that there is no scenario in which they lose.
Gags Sports wrote:Always a lot of value in underdogs early in the season until Vegas learns more about the teams.
This is not true at all. There is no value. Vegas doesn't care if Halladay is a 5 run underdog pitching against the Rockies' fifth starter so long as half the money is on the Rockies' scrub. If an opening line is out of whack the so called sharp money will come in until the line readjusts. If the betting on a game is fishy and too contrary to what their lines makers predict they will simply take the game off the board and return your money before the game starts.