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2012 Cafe MLB Betting Thread

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2012 Cafe MLB Betting Thread

Postby Snakes Gould » Tue Apr 03, 2012 1:33 am

These threads have been very informative and productive in the past garnering up great discussion about value in lines, systems of betting, and good bankroll management techniques. Posted below are the team over/unders for the season and some interesting player props posted at my book, along with Wednesday night's game between the Cards and Marlins. This is the place where you can post your plays of the day, a good value in a line, or the spot to brag about the sick heater you're on.

Apr 04 997 CARDINALS (STL) K LOHSE -R +160 o7+105
6:05 PM 998 MARLINS (MIA) J JOHNSON -R -180 u7-125



Apr 04 25321 MARLINS TOTAL WINS o85-150
6:00 PM 25322 MARLINS TOTAL WINS u85+120
Apr 04 25351 CARDINALS TOTAL WINS o84½-130
6:00 PM 25352 CARDINALS TOTAL WINS u84½EV

Apr 05 25301 DIAMONDBACKS TOTAL WINS o86-120
12:00 PM 25302 DIAMONDBACKS TOTAL WINS u86-110

Apr 05 25303 BRAVES TOTAL WINS o86½-120
12:00 PM 25304 BRAVES TOTAL WINS u86½-110

Apr 05 25305 ORIOLES TOTAL WINS o69½EV
12:00 PM 25306 ORIOLES TOTAL WINS u69½-130

Apr 05 25307 RED SOX TOTAL WINS o90-125
12:00 PM 25308 RED SOX TOTAL WINS u90-105

Apr 05 25309 CUBS TOTAL WINS o74EV
12:00 PM 25310 CUBS TOTAL WINS u74-130

Apr 05 25311 WHITE SOX TOTAL WINS o75-130
12:00 PM 25312 WHITE SOX TOTAL WINS u75EV

Apr 05 25313 REDS TOTAL WINS o87-135
12:00 PM 25314 REDS TOTAL WINS u87+105

Apr 05 25315 INDIANS TOTAL WINS o78½-105
12:00 PM 25316 INDIANS TOTAL WINS u78½-125

Apr 05 25317 ROCKIES TOTAL WINS o81½-105
12:00 PM 25318 ROCKIES TOTAL WINS u81½-125

Apr 05 25319 TIGERS TOTAL WINS o92½+105
12:00 PM 25320 TIGERS TOTAL WINS u92½-135

Apr 05 25323 ASTROS TOTAL WINS o64+105
12:00 PM 25324 ASTROS TOTAL WINS u64-135

Apr 05 25325 ROYALS TOTAL WINS o79½-115
12:00 PM 25326 ROYALS TOTAL WINS u79½-115

Apr 05 25327 ANGELS TOTAL WINS o92-105
12:00 PM 25328 ANGELS TOTAL WINS u92-125

Apr 05 25329 DODGERS TOTAL WINS o81½-105
12:00 PM 25330 DODGERS TOTAL WINS u81½-125

Apr 05 25331 BREWERS TOTAL WINS o84½-150
12:00 PM 25332 BREWERS TOTAL WINS u84½+120

Apr 05 25333 TWINS TOTAL WINS o73½-125
12:00 PM 25334 TWINS TOTAL WINS u73½-105

Apr 05 25335 METS TOTAL WINS o72½-120
12:00 PM 25336 METS TOTAL WINS u72½-110

Apr 05 25337 YANKEES TOTAL WINS o93-130
12:00 PM 25338 YANKEES TOTAL WINS u93EV

Apr 05 25341 PHILLIES TOTAL WINS o92½+105
12:00 PM 25342 PHILLIES TOTAL WINS u92½-135

Apr 05 25343 PIRATES TOTAL WINS o74-120
12:00 PM 25344 PIRATES TOTAL WINS u74-110

Apr 05 25345 PADRES TOTAL WINS o73½-120
12:00 PM 25346 PADRES TOTAL WINS u73½-110

Apr 05 25347 GIANTS TOTAL WINS o87½-105
12:00 PM 25348 GIANTS TOTAL WINS u87½-125

Apr 05 25353 RAYS TOTAL WINS o86½-130
12:00 PM 25354 RAYS TOTAL WINS u86½EV

Apr 05 25355 RANGERS TOTAL WINS o90½-135
12:00 PM 25356 RANGERS TOTAL WINS u90½+105

Apr 05 25357 BLUE JAYS TOTAL WINS o81½-140
12:00 PM 25358 BLUE JAYS TOTAL WINS u81½+110

Apr 05 25359 NATIONALS TOTAL WINS o83½-140
12:00 PM 25360 NATIONALS TOTAL WINS u83½+110


Apr 05 23491 MOST PITCHING WINS-J.VERLANDER -1½-110
12:00 PM 23492 MOST PITCHING WINS-C.KERSHAW +1½-120

Apr 05 23493 MOST PITCHING WINS-J.WEAVER +2-110
12:00 PM 23494 MOST PITCHING WINS-R.HALLADAY -2-120

Apr 05 23497 MOST PITCHING WINS-CC SABATHIA -2-110
12:00 PM 23498 MOST PITCHING WINS-T.LINCECUM +2-120

Apr 05 23499 MOST PITCHING WINS-DAVID PRICE +½-115
12:00 PM 23500 MOST PITCHING WINS-Z.GREINKE -½-115

Apr 05 23501 MOST PITCHING WINS-DAN HAREN -½-115
12:00 PM 23502 MOST PITCHING WINS-IAN KENNEDY +½-115

Apr 05 23505 MOST PITCHING WINS-M.PINEDA -1-115
12:00 PM 23506 MOST PITCHING WINS-MATT CAIN +1-115

Apr 05 23507 MOST PITCHING WINS-R.ROMERO +1-120
12:00 PM 23508 MOST PITCHING WINS-M.LATOS -1-110

Apr 05 23509 MOST PITCHING WINS-J.SHIELDS +½-115
12:00 PM 23510 MOST PITCHING WINS-T.CAHILL -½-115

Apr 05 23511 MOST PITCHING WINS-MATT MOORE +1-120
12:00 PM 23512 MOST PITCHING WINS-S.STRASBURG -1-110

Apr 05 23513 MOST PITCHING WINS-CJ WILSON +1-120
12:00 PM 23514 MOST PITCHING WINS-COLE HAMELS -1-110

Apr 05 23601 MOST STOLEN BASES-J.ELLSBURY -2½-120
12:00 PM 23602 MOST STOLEN BASES-JOSE REYES +2½-110

Apr 05 23603 MOST STOLEN BASES-D.PEDROIA +1-115
12:00 PM 23604 MOST STOLEN BASES-IAN KINSLER -1-115

Apr 05 23605 MOST STOLEN BASES-JEMILE WEEKS +3½-125
12:00 PM 23606 MOST STOLEN BASES-ELVIS ANDRUS -3½-105


Apr 05 23701 MOST HOME RUNS HIT-J.BAUTISTA -5½-110
12:00 PM 23702 MOST HOME RUNS HIT-M.STANTON +5½-120

Apr 05 23703 MOST HOME RUNS HIT-J.HAMILTON +1+110
12:00 PM 23704 MOST HOME RUNS HIT-C.GONZALEZ -1-140

Apr 05 23705 MOST HOME RUNS HIT-A.PUJOLS -1-125
12:00 PM 23706 MOST HOME RUNS HIT-MATT KEMP +1-105

Apr 05 23707 MOST HOME RUNS HIT-GRANDERSON -1-115
12:00 PM 23708 MOST HOME RUNS HIT-J.UPTON +1-115

Apr 05 23709 MOST HOME RUNS HIT-NELSON CRUZ +3½-120
12:00 PM 23710 MOST HOME RUNS HIT-JAY BRUCE -3½-110

Apr 05 23711 MOST HOME RUNS HIT-E.LONGARIA -4-130
12:00 PM 23712 MOST HOME RUNS HIT-R.ZIMMERMAN +4EV

Apr 05 23713 MOST HOME RUNS HIT-C.SANTANA -3½-110
12:00 PM 23714 MOST HOME RUNS HIT-B.MCCANN +3½-120

Apr 05 23715 MOST HOME RUNS HIT-M.CABRERA +1½-120
12:00 PM 23716 MOST HOME RUNS HIT-JOEY VOTTO -1½-110

Apr 05 23717 MOST HOME RUNS HIT-P.FIELDER -2-120
12:00 PM 23718 MOST HOME RUNS HIT-M.TEIXEIRA +2-110

Apr 05 23719 MOST HOME RUNS HIT-R.CANO -1½-110
12:00 PM 23720 MOST HOME RUNS HIT-IAN KINSLER +1½-120

Apr 05 23721 MOST HOME RUNS HIT-TULOWITZKI -4½-130
12:00 PM 23722 MOST HOME RUNS HIT-H.RAMIREZ +4½EV

Apr 05 23723 MOST HOME RUNS HIT-A.BELTRE -2½-120
12:00 PM 23724 MOST HOME RUNS HIT-A.RAMIREZ +2½-110

Apr 05 23801 MOST RBI-JOE MAUER -1-115
12:00 PM 23802 MOST RBI-BRIAN MCCANN +1-115

Apr 05 23803 MOST RBI-ALEX AVILA -2½-115
12:00 PM 23804 MOST RBI-MIGUEL MONTERO +2½-115

Apr 05 23805 MOST RBI-CARLOS SANTANA -7½-110
12:00 PM 23806 MOST RBI-MATT WIETERS +7½-120

Apr 05 23807 MOST RBI-MIGUEL CABRERA -1½-110
12:00 PM 23808 MOST RBI-ALBERT PUJOLS +1½-120

Apr 05 23809 MOST RBI-ADRIAN GONZALEZ -1-115
12:00 PM 23810 MOST RBI-MARK TEIXEIRA +1-115

Apr 05 23811 MOST RBI-ERIC HOSMER -9½-110
12:00 PM 23812 MOST RBI-FREDDY FREEMAN +9½-120

Apr 05 23813 MOST RBI-JOEY VOTTO +2½-105
12:00 PM 23814 MOST RBI-PRINCE FIELDER -2½-125

Apr 05 23815 MOST RBI-DAVID ORTIZ +4½-120
12:00 PM 23816 MOST RBI-BILLY BUTLER -4½-110

Apr 05 23817 MOST RBI-DUSTIN PEDROIA -10½-120
12:00 PM 23818 MOST RBI-RICKIE WEEKS +10½-110

Apr 05 23819 MOST RBI-HOWIE KENDRICK +4½-120
12:00 PM 23820 MOST RBI-NEIL WALKER -4½-110

Apr 05 23823 MOST RBI-EVAN LONGARIA +1-115
12:00 PM 23824 MOST RBI-TROY TULOWITZKI -1-115

Apr 05 23825 MOST RBI-KEVIN YOUKILIS +1½-115
12:00 PM 23826 MOST RBI-HANLEY RAMIREZ -1½-115

Apr 05 23827 MOST RBI-JOSE BAUTISTA -10½-110
12:00 PM 23828 MOST RBI-MATT KEMP +10½-120

Apr 05 23829 MOST RBI-DAVID WRIGHT -1½-110
12:00 PM 23830 MOST RBI-RYAN ZIMMERMAN +1½-120

Apr 05 23831 MOST RBI-PABLO SANDOVAL -1½-115
12:00 PM 23832 MOST RBI-ARAMIS RAMIREZ +1½-115

Apr 05 23833 MOST RBI-JOSH HAMILTON +1½-120
12:00 PM 23834 MOST RBI-MATT HOLLIDAY -1½-110

Apr 05 23835 MOST RBI-CURTIS GRANDERSON -1½-110
12:00 PM 23836 MOST RBI-JAY BRUCE +1½-120

Apr 05 23837 MOST RBI-ROBINSON CANO -1½-110
12:00 PM 23838 MOST RBI-CARLOS GONZALEZ +1½-120

Apr 05 23839 MOST RBI-JUSTIN UPTON +1-115
12:00 PM 23840 MOST RBI-HUNTER PENCE -1-115

Apr 05 23901 MOST RUNS SCORED-M.CABRERA -1½-110
12:00 PM 23902 MOST RUNS SCORED-A.GONZALEZ +1½-120

Apr 05 23903 MOST RUNS SCORED-M.TEIXEIRA +2½-120
12:00 PM 23904 MOST RUNS SCORED-P.FIELDER -2½-110

Apr 05 23905 MOST RUNS SCORED-ALBERT PUJOLS -10½-110
12:00 PM 23906 MOST RUNS SCORED-JOEY VOTTO +10½-120

Apr 05 23907 MOST RUNS SCORED-MICHAEL YOUNG -7½-110
12:00 PM 23908 MOST RUNS SCORED-LANCE BERKMAN +7½-120

Apr 05 23909 MOST RUNS SCORED-ROBINSON CANO +1½-120
12:00 PM 23910 MOST RUNS SCORED-D.PEDROIA -1½-110

Apr 05 23913 MOST RUNS SCORED-B.ZOBRIST -2½-110
12:00 PM 23914 MOST RUNS SCORED-RICKIE WEEKS +2½-120

Apr 05 23915 MOST RUNS SCORED-H.KENDRICK +1½-120
12:00 PM 23916 MOST RUNS SCORED-NEIL WALKER -1½-110

Apr 05 23917 MOST RUNS SCORED-B.PHILLIPS -1-110
12:00 PM 23918 MOST RUNS SCORED-DAN UGGLA +1-120
Apr 05 23919 MOST RUNS SCORED-ELVIS ANDRUS +5½-120
12:00 PM 23920 MOST RUNS SCORED-JOSE REYES -5½-110

Apr 05 23921 MOST RUNS SCORED-T.TULOWITZKI +2½-120
12:00 PM 23922 MOST RUNS SCORED-H.RAMIREZ -2½-110

Apr 05 23923 MOST RUNS SCORED-DAVID WRIGHT -5½-120
12:00 PM 23924 MOST RUNS SCORED-A.RODRIGUEZ +5½-110

Apr 05 23925 MOST RUNS SCORED-EVAN LONGARIA -3½-120
12:00 PM 23926 MOST RUNS SCORED-ADRIAN BELTRE +3½-110

Apr 05 23927 MOST RUNS SCORED-K.YOUKILIS -1-115
12:00 PM 23928 MOST RUNS SCORED-R. ZIMMERMAN +1-115

Apr 05 23929 MOST RUNS SCORED-JOSE BAUTISTA -2½-120
12:00 PM 23930 MOST RUNS SCORED-JUSTIN UPTON +2½-110

Apr 05 23931 MOST RUNS SCORED-C.GRANDERSON +3½-120
12:00 PM 23932 MOST RUNS SCORED-J.ELLSBURY -3½-110

Apr 05 23933 MOST RUNS SCORED-MATT HOLLIDAY -2½-110
12:00 PM 23934 MOST RUNS SCORED-J.HAMILTON +2½-120

Apr 05 23935 MOST RUNS SCORED-MATT KEMP -2½-115
12:00 PM 23936 MOST RUNS SCORED-HUNTER PENCE +2½-115




Apr 05 25401 HIGHEST HR TOTAL IN SEASON o44½-105
12:00 PM 25402 HIGHEST HR TOTAL IN SEASON u44½-125


Apr 05 25403 HIGHEST WIN TOTAL FOR PITCHER o21½-110
12:00 PM 25404 HIGHEST WIN TOTAL FOR PITCHER u21½-120


Apr 05 25405 HIGHEST RBI TOTAL IN SEASON o132½-115
12:00 PM 25406 HIGHEST RBI TOTAL IN SEASON u132½-115


Apr 05 25407 YES-TOP AVERAGE OVER .348 +115
12:00 PM 25408 NO-TOP AVERAGE OVER .348 -145


Apr 05 25409 HIGHEST HIT TOTAL IN SEASON o213½-120
12:00 PM 25410 HIGHEST HIT TOTAL IN SEASON u213½-110


Apr 05 25411 MOST STEALS FOR SEASON o62½-150
12:00 PM 25412 MOST STEALS FOR SEASON u62½+120


Apr 05 25413 HIGHEST LOSS TOTAL FOR PITCHER o17+120
12:00 PM 25414 HIGHEST LOSS TOTAL FOR PITCHER u17-150


Apr 05 25415 HIGHEST SAVE TOTAL FOR PITCHER o48-115
12:00 PM 25416 HIGHEST SAVE TOTAL FOR PITCHER u48-115


Apr 05 25417 MOST STRIKEOUTS FOR PITCHER o250½-115
12:00 PM 25418 MOST STRIKEOUTS FOR PITCHER u250½-115


Apr 05 25419 MOST DOUBLES BY ANY PLAYER o48½-115
12:00 PM 25420 MOST DOUBLES BY ANY PLAYER u48½-115


Apr 05 25421 MOST TRIPLES BY ANY PLAYER o16-115
12:00 PM 25422 MOST TRIPLES BY ANY PLAYER u16-115


Apr 05 25423 MOST RUNS SCORED BY ANY PLAYER o124½-115
12:00 PM 25424 MOST RUNS SCORED BY ANY PLAYER u124½-115
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Re: 2012 Cafe MLB Betting Thread

Postby Snakes Gould » Tue Apr 03, 2012 1:47 am

To me, there's good value in betting the Cards at +160 on opening night. Josh Johnson will be a pretty low pitch count I would think, and has struggled with his control this spring. Lohse isn't dominating, but should be able to go deeper than Johnson. With Stanton banged up, the lineups are just about a wash. There should be a lot of excitement with the first game in the new park, but I think i may bite on the +160.
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Re: 2012 Cafe MLB Betting Thread

Postby fast dogs » Tue Apr 03, 2012 2:35 am

some interesting stuff there
Shields plus 1/2 a win vs Cahill looks too easy
I think I'd have to go over 92 wins for Angels
under 81 on Dodgers
Beltre 2 1/2 more HR than A Ram
I like the player wagers alot...
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Re: 2012 Cafe MLB Betting Thread

Postby Izenhart » Tue Apr 03, 2012 6:58 am

I like these:

Marlins Wins o85
Red Sox Wins u90
Angels Wins o92
Padres u73.5
Rays o86.5

Most Home Runs Hit - M Stanton +5.5-120 (Bautista)
Most Home Runs Hit - Granderson -1-115 (J Upton)
Most Home Runs Hit - Longoria -4-130 (Zimmerman)
Most RBI - Brian McCann +1-115 (Mauer)
Most RBI - Youkilis +1.5-115 (H Ramirez)
Most Runs Scored - Granderson +3.5-120 (Ellsbury)

NO-TOP AVERAGE OVER .348 -145
HIGHEST HIT TOTAL IN SEASON u213½-110
MOST TRIPLES BY ANY PLAYER u16-115
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2012 Cafe MLB Betting Thread

Postby lastingsgriller » Tue Apr 03, 2012 11:03 am

Rockies over 81 1/2
Royals over 79 1/2

Odds makers sure make it tough on a brother.
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Re: 2012 Cafe MLB Betting Thread

Postby Gags Sports » Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:53 pm

Hey Snakes,

What site are those odds from? If you don't want to post, please PM me. There are some odds that are more favorable than the other three sites I have been tracking.

Thanks!
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Re: 2012 Cafe MLB Betting Thread

Postby BronXBombers51 » Tue Apr 03, 2012 4:58 pm

I like the overs on Tampa and Milwaukee.
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Re: 2012 Cafe MLB Betting Thread

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Apr 03, 2012 5:16 pm

Something interesting is that Vegas has Kendrys Morales' RBI o/u set to 90.5, HR o/u at 27.5 -- the only projection that has him even sniffing that is Bill James (24 HR, 86 RBI) and others have him falling wildly short. Does Vegas know something we don't? Other interesting o/u marks for various players...

J.J. Hardy - 25.5 HR -- apparently they think a repeat power performance is in the works
Kevin Youkilis - 22.5 HR -- I doubt it
Jacoby Ellsbury - 20.5 HR -- seems a lot more reasonable than expecting 30 again, and I bet he still goes under
Andrew Bailey - 35.5 SV -- seems to still be available even with the possibility of him missing 3 months
Alfonso Soriano - 22.5 HR -- I thought this was ridiculous until I saw he hit 26 last year...
Adam Dunn - 27.5 HR -- in my heart I want to believe he surpasses this easily and I don't have to watch a repeat of last year's disgust
Joey Votto - 30.5 HR, 105.5 RBI -- reasonable
Jay Bruce - 31.5 HR, 95.5 RBI
Carlos Santana - 27.5 HR -- as an owner, this is nice to see
Miguel Cabrera - 34.5 HR, 112.5 RBI
Prince Fielder - 35.5 HR, 115.5 RBI -- interesting to see both of these higher than Miggy's
Hanley Ramirez - 21.5 HR, 29.5 SB, 84.5 RBI
Jose Reyes - 105.5 R, 39.5 SB
Giancarlo Stanton - 35.5 HR, 95.5 RBI
Billy Butler - 18.5 HR, 87.5 RBI
Eric Hosmer - 25.5 HR, 87.5 RBI
Albert Pujols - 37.5 HR, 118.5 RBI
Matt Kemp - 33.5 HR, 112.5 RBI
Dee Gordon - 47.5 SB
Ryan Braun - 30.5 HR, 110.5 RBI
Rickie Weeks - 24.5 HR
Corey Hart - 27.5 HR
.
.
.
I feel like I want to try and acquire Kendrys Morales? :-D
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2012 Cafe MLB Betting Thread

Postby lastingsgriller » Tue Apr 03, 2012 5:41 pm

Would love to see how historically accurate Vegas has been in comparison to other projection systems.
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Re: 2012 Cafe MLB Betting Thread

Postby Snakes Gould » Tue Apr 03, 2012 6:22 pm

bigh0rt wrote:Andrew Bailey - 35.5 SV -- seems to still be available even with the possibility of him missing 3 months

I feel like I want to try and acquire Kendrys Morales? :-D


i think those numbers are reasonable if he stays healthy, but obviously thats a big if. a lot of books require a minimum game appearance or at bats to make the bet official. also, at my book, you need to be on the active roster when the season starts, so Bailey bets would be void. not sure if thats how the majority are run.
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