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Motte, Marshall, Bentancourt, Broxon or Nathan. WHIR

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Re: Motte, Marshall, Bentancourt, Broxon or Nathan. WHIR

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Sat Apr 07, 2012 3:13 am

HOOTIE wrote:CHRIS PEREZ sucks, i told you
4-1 lead, blows it

If Acta had any guts, Pestano would be closer

If Acta would be a bad manager he would do what you suggest.

Do you realize that this is the first game of the season?
Do you know that relievers are way behind this early of the season?

HOOTIE wrote:I avoid closers who are at risk to blow up.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=320406130

So I guess you don't have a closer on your team by now.
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Re: Motte, Marshall, Bentancourt, Broxon or Nathan. WHIR

Postby HOOTIE » Sat Apr 07, 2012 3:55 am

Syfo-Dyas wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:CHRIS PEREZ sucks, i told you
4-1 lead, blows it

If Acta had any guts, Pestano would be closer

If Acta would be a bad manager he would do what you suggest.

Do you realize that this is the first game of the season?
Do you know that relievers are way behind this early of the season?

HOOTIE wrote:I avoid closers who are at risk to blow up.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=320406130

So I guess you don't have a closer on your team by now.


Bad example.

1. Rivera has a good K/9, Perez doesn't.

2.Rivera doesn't allow a lot of baserunners, Perez did last year.

2. Rivera blew a 1 run lead, no biggie.

3. Anybody can blow a 1 run lead.
Perez blew a 3 run lead. Big difference.

Here are the facts.

Perez only threw 3 innings in spring training.
His velocity was also down.
Pestano should have opened as the closer.
Perez should be in AAA right now, building up to at least 10 innings, before being on club.
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Re: Motte, Marshall, Bentancourt, Broxon or Nathan. WHIR

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Sat Apr 07, 2012 7:42 am

HOOTIE wrote:
Syfo-Dyas wrote:
HOOTIE wrote:CHRIS PEREZ sucks, i told you
4-1 lead, blows it

If Acta had any guts, Pestano would be closer

If Acta would be a bad manager he would do what you suggest.

Do you realize that this is the first game of the season?
Do you know that relievers are way behind this early of the season?

HOOTIE wrote:I avoid closers who are at risk to blow up.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=320406130

So I guess you don't have a closer on your team by now.


Bad example.

No, it was the perfect example to your comment. Now you trying to save yourself with bad k/9 comparisons

HOOTIE wrote:1. Rivera has a good K/9, Perez doesn't.


here are some k/9 comparisons for you
Perez had
10.7 k/9 in 2009
8.71 K/9 in 2010
6.88 k/9 in 2011

Rivera had
10.9 k/9 in 1996
8.54 k/9 in 1997
5.28 k/9 in 1998

According to your logic Rivera absolutely sucked in 1998 and should have been replaced.
I suggest you try something else.

HOOTIE wrote:2.Rivera doesn't allow a lot of baserunners, Perez did last year.

What do mean by lot of baserunners?
Let's forget Rivera for a second here, and look at some closer numbers, that should support your theory.
I took all the closers from last season with at least 14 saves and averaged them.
An average closer had about 63 innings last season.
An average closer had a 1.16 WHIP.
Perez had 1.21 WHIP last season.
The difference:
3 more baserunners in 63 innings than the average closer

HOOTIE wrote:2. Rivera blew a 1 run lead, no biggie.
3. Anybody can blow a 1 run lead.
Perez blew a 3 run lead. Big difference.


Rivera gave up 2 runs and lost the game.
Perez didn't. Big difference.
And before you say that I think that Perez is just as good as Rivera or Rivera is just as bad as Perez, than you are wrong.
Im merely proving that your superficial interpretation of the numbers are blinding you, and you are talking absolute nonsense.

HOOTIE wrote:Perez only threw 3 innings in spring training.
His velocity was also down.
Pestano should have opened as the closer.
Perez should be in AAA right now, building up to at least 10 innings, before being on club.


And I agree when you are right.
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Re: Motte, Marshall, Bentancourt, Broxon or Nathan. WHIR

Postby HOOTIE » Sat Apr 07, 2012 8:51 am

No nonsense at all.
Perez allows 4.26 W /9 over career.
Rivera 2.06.
You can't have a low K/9, walk 4 guys per 9, and not walk a tight rope.
Perez allows too many base runners, and in the long run, that will catch up to him.
The only reason his era was under 4 last year, was he got lucky on hr/fb ratio, 5.7%, versus career 8.1%

Cleveland lost the game.
Perez couldn't get 3 outs with a 3 run lead.
Perez didn't get the loss, but Cleveland lost the game, because of him.
Rivera lost the game, but a 1 run save chance, isn't close to a 3 run save chance.
You can't compare them.

Check back at years end, and we will see how Perez ranks with the 29 other closers.
If Perez makes it that long.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index. ... lown-save/
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Re: Motte, Marshall, Bentancourt, Broxon or Nathan. WHIR

Postby HOOTIE » Sat Apr 07, 2012 9:15 am

Syfo-Dyas wrote:Information people really need to know:
Perez had an ERA of 2.65 on Sep 4, than he had 2 bad games. No need to worry. Around 30 saves.


No need to worry on Perez? :-D
Even Fangraphs, puts Perez in the bottom tier, calling that group lackluster.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index. ... -rankings/

What people really need to know is Perez is a bad closer, at this point in his career, who comes with a lot of risk.
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Re: Motte, Marshall, Bentancourt, Broxon or Nathan. WHIR

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Sat Apr 07, 2012 10:44 am

HOOTIE wrote:No nonsense at all.
Perez allows 4.26 W /9 over career.
Rivera 2.06.
You can't have a low K/9, walk 4 guys per 9, and not walk a tight rope.
Perez allows too many base runners, and in the long run, that will catch up to him.

Are you aguing just for the sake of arguing?
I even tried to make you see that 3 more baserunners in a season are not too many.
Whatever.

You compare Perez and Rivera when you shouldn't.
I know I brought up Rivera but for a different reason, that should have been clear, but you fail to realize even that.
Whatever.

HOOTIE wrote:The only reason his era was under 4 last year, was he got lucky on hr/fb ratio, 5.7%, versus career 8.1%

I see. Lucky HR/FB ratio. Fine. That should explain it then.
Oh wait, thats crap. He had that ratio for 2 seasons. Thats what people call consistency.
BTW he had worse BB/9 and HR/FB in 2010 and all he did is get the job done.
Yet when there is Pestano, there are questions.
And there was no questions about Marmol's BB/9 rate, when he was ranked as the #1 closer before last season. Oh Marmol has an incredible high K/9 rate, so theres no need to worry!
Right.


HOOTIE wrote:Cleveland lost the game.
Perez couldn't get 3 outs with a 3 run lead.
Perez didn't get the loss, but Cleveland lost the game, because of him.

And you are wrong again. Must be a habit.
Cleveland did not lose the game bacause of him. The correct way to put it, the Indians did not win the game because of him.
But I guess you fail to see the difference.

HOOTIE wrote:Rivera lost the game, but a 1 run save chance, isn't close to a 3 run save chance.
You can't compare them.

I did not compare them regarding this.
I brought up Rivera because of this:
HOOTIE wrote:I avoid closers who are at risk to blow up.


HOOTIE wrote:Check back at years end, and we will see how Perez ranks with the 29 other closers.
If Perez makes it that long.

No need to.
Even if Perez will be removed, as it can happen to anyone, as I proved in an earlier post, and will happen to several closers, your reasoning remains wrong.
And what we debating here is your reasoning.

HOOTIE wrote:What people really need to know is Perez is a bad closer, at this point in his career, who comes with a lot of risk.


And as you said it yourself, he is not ready yet. This blow up has nothing to do with anything else as far as Im concerned.

HOOTIE wrote:Even Fangraphs, puts Perez in the bottom tier, calling that group lackluster.

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index. ... -rankings/

I wasn't debating any rankings if I can recall that correctly, so I have no idea why you brought this up. I think that those ranking are very useful for fantasy. Although I would put Perez in Tier 4.
BTW it seems like even Fangraphs thinks that Perez is a better option than Pestano at this point. :-D

What you don't get is how real baseball managers are thinking. You see one blown save and panic, although you had a valid reasoning, when you mentioned he is not ready yet.
Yet you expect Acta to panic too, but when he doesn't, you call him gutless.
I say he remembers that this guy was good last year, and he deserves some support from his manager.
Yet, if he constantly fails to get the job done, he will be removed. But I said this earlier.

So I'll panic when I see more blown saves, which could happen since we can clearly see, that he isn't there, where he needs to be.
Oh well I guess I exaggerated a bit, cause I don't own Perez, but I have Pestano, and the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, so I won't panic. :-D
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Re: Motte, Marshall, Bentancourt, Broxon or Nathan. WHIR

Postby HOOTIE » Sat Apr 07, 2012 6:51 pm

Are you aguing just for the sake of arguing?
I even tried to make you see that 3 more baserunners in a season are not too many.
Whatever.


No need to get testy?

I see. Lucky HR/FB ratio. Fine. That should explain it then.
Oh wait, thats crap. He had that ratio for 2 seasons. Thats what people call consistency.


Consistency like in 08-09, (10.5 and 12.5)?

You do realize that hr/fb ratio, is not really a skill?
Basically, a pitcher should be close to his career average, last year MLB average was about 9.5%
Perez career ratio is 8.1%
It's foolish to expect 5% every year, when his norm is 8%.


http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index. ... ching/hrs/

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/w ... index.html

I say he remembers that this guy was good last year, and he deserves some support from his manager.


I guess it depends on what good is?
4 blown saves not bad, but 7 losses is not good.
Baseball-Reference had him at 1.2 WAR.
Pestano had a 2.2 WAR, and was 2 million cheaper.

Remember xFIP, has been shown to be a better indicator of future performance, then era has been.
Perez xFIP last year 5.01 versus his 3.32 era.

Cleveland did not lose the game bacause of him. The correct way to put it, the Indians did not win the game because of him.


However you want to put it, Cleveland did not win, because he blew a easy save.
And it went 16 innings, so he also cost Acta, wasting 7 innings to his bullpen already.
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Re: Motte, Marshall, Bentancourt, Broxon or Nathan. WHIR

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Sun Apr 08, 2012 2:58 am

HOOTIE wrote:
I see. Lucky HR/FB ratio. Fine. That should explain it then.
Oh wait, thats crap. He had that ratio for 2 seasons. Thats what people call consistency.


Consistency like in 08-09, (10.5 and 12.5)?

You do realize that hr/fb ratio, is not really a skill?
Basically, a pitcher should be close to his career average, last year MLB average was about 9.5%
Perez career ratio is 8.1%
It's foolish to expect 5% every year, when his norm is 8%.

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index. ... ching/hrs/


08-09 was a long time ago, and can not be used anymore, since he has consistent data that is inconsistent with the 08-09 data. This should indicate that something has changed, so using 08-09 data as a reference is foolish.
MLB avarage is a mathematical reference, and it is foolish to expect that every individual has to regress to the mean. It's the easy, but the a bad approach.
Everybody is different, so everybody must be judged individually.

HR/FB ratio is a skill.
It's a skill to be able to avoid the power of the batter. It's the ability to locate the pitch, to have enough movement on the pitch to fool a hitter just enough to hit a lazy flyball.
HR's mostly are the results of badly located pitches.
Locating pitches is a skill, therefore HR/FB ratio is a skill.

BTW your Fangraphs link contains a link that says that HR/FB ratio is a skill :-D


I stopped reading after the first sentence.
Reduce what pitchers do down to the basics: There are the types of balls they give up -- ground balls, fly balls, pop-ups and line drives

If you want to reduce pitches down to the basics, there are two types of batted balls.
Hard hit balls
Weakly hit balls
Than you can break it down to groundballs, flyballs, linedrives, popups.
And the weak and hard contact is the point where sabermetrics, especially BABIP fails.
And the best sabermetrics estimator SIERA too.
I don't like xFIP cause it ignores balls in play except HRs, therefore it will give you flawed results. And it ignores pitchers ability to increse their level of play when they run into trouble.
So until this problem is solved, theres no point trusting blindly FanGraphs statisctics and articles.
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Re: Motte, Marshall, Bentancourt, Broxon or Nathan. WHIR

Postby HOOTIE » Sun Apr 08, 2012 3:44 am

It's a skill to be able to avoid the power of the batter. It's the ability to locate the pitch, to have enough movement on the pitch to fool a hitter just enough to hit a lazy flyball.


So a ball 1 foot short of the fence, or 1 foot over the fence is skill?
If it was a skill, pitchers should be able to decrease their hr/fb ratio every year.
Not have it bounce all over the place in any given year.

And it ignores pitchers ability to increse their level of play when they run into trouble.


This is another argument, for another day.
Even a guy like Maddux had strain rates ranging from 62% to 82%.
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Re: Motte, Marshall, Bentancourt, Broxon or Nathan. WHIR

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Sun Apr 08, 2012 1:16 pm

HOOTIE wrote:
It's a skill to be able to avoid the power of the batter. It's the ability to locate the pitch, to have enough movement on the pitch to fool a hitter just enough to hit a lazy flyball.


So a ball 1 foot short of the fence, or 1 foot over the fence is skill?
If it was a skill, pitchers should be able to decrease their hr/fb ratio every year.
Not have it bounce all over the place in any given year.

And it ignores pitchers ability to increse their level of play when they run into trouble.


This is another argument, for another day.
Even a guy like Maddux had strain rates ranging from 62% to 82%.

Yes I do believe that HR/FB ratio is a skill.
Your example of 1 foot short or 1 foot over the fence should be ignored completely if you have small amount of data to work with.
And probably there are very few batted balls meets that criteria.
But I believe anything near the fence is a mistake pitch, and the batter was able to drive the ball.
And the reason why the ball was or wasn't a HR, could be anything from park size, batter faced, wind speed and direction etc...
And non of these factors are constant.

Athletes development and perfomance is not linear. I'm not sport scientist so I can't give any details why and how or etc...
Im sure there are studies to be found on the internet.

And if you expect me to explain, how it's possible that a pitcher looks like Cy Young one year, and looks total disaster the next, I can't answer that.
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