HOOTIE wrote:I avoid closers who are at risk to blow up. 2 reasons.
1. I don't want the bad whip and era. 2. They are at risk, more then a good closer, of losing their jobs during the season.
I won't own guys like Nathan, Capps, Perez, Johnson.
Thats the difference. In fantasy ERA and WHIP matters. In real baseball, managers don't care about that much. The difference between 2,57 ERA and 3,29 ERA is 5 runs in 63.0 IP. Thats not much during the course of the season. And it's not really a threat to job security. But in fantasy it matters a lot, and you see those runs magnified.
the awesome sig by soty
"You should be mindful of the future, but not at the expense of the moment." - Qui-Gon Jinn (keeper league expert?)
Managers name their closers, big deal? A lot can change quickly. I didn't say they were competing. I said Nathan and Perez aren't that good, that each could lose their job, with a shorter leash then a good closer.
MaudDib wrote:
Syfo-Dyas wrote:Yes it's a big deal cus they don't have to pitch as well as the other guy. They only have to get the job done. Managers don't care about FIP, xFIP or SIERA. They don't even know about these things. Managers don't care about pitchers k/9. They only care about results. You say Nathan and Perez aren't that good. But they proved it that they can get the job done. Shorter leash? Prior the 2010 season Broxton was ranked as the top closer by Yahoo. He pitched lights out for 3 months. Then suddenly he couldn't get the job done. He was out of job pretty fast.
The good closer gets the job done. Nothing more, nothing less.
Not sure what you are arguing here. Everyone agrees that Nathan and Perez have the job. But then you go on to point out that a closer can lose a job pretty quickly if he is ineffective. When you do fantasy, part of what you are doing is projecting what a pitcher will do, not what he has done. Perez has gotten the job done but hasn't done it well so if you are projecting a guy to lose his job, his name would be pretty high on the list. Nathan was pretty bad last year and until he proves that he is completely healthy, you have to wonder if he will stay healthy and be effective as well.
Yes they have the job now but that doesn't mean they will continue to hold the job all year. That is the point Hootie is making. He doesn't think Perez or Nathan hold the job all year for whatever reason and like you pointed out if a guy doesn't get the job done, he is gone. So again what are you arguing here? They have the managers backing today but that means little if they don't keep it.
Read the first page. He argued what I said about what you really need to know. Than I was arguing that it does not really matter, that they have Adams and Pestano waiting in the pen to take over. I was arguing that even if their skill set is slightly worse, they have the job, and they can hold it as long as they get the job done. If I looking at skill set, Marshall would be very high on the list. But as I mentioned he has Dusty, who is not confident to name him closer.
the awesome sig by soty
"You should be mindful of the future, but not at the expense of the moment." - Qui-Gon Jinn (keeper league expert?)
HOOTIE wrote:I avoid closers who are at risk to blow up. 2 reasons.
1. I don't want the bad whip and era. 2. They are at risk, more then a good closer, of losing their jobs during the season.
I won't own guys like Nathan, Capps, Perez, Johnson.
Thats the difference. In fantasy ERA and WHIP matters. In real baseball, managers don't care about that much. The difference between 2,57 ERA and 3,29 ERA is 5 runs in 63.0 IP. Thats not much during the course of the season. And it's not really a threat to job security. But in fantasy it matters a lot, and you see those runs magnified.
ERA and WHIP may not matter to a manager, but it's going to matter to your fantasy team when your closer decides to get blown up for a day. Even in reality, the higher the WHIP = the more base runners = more chance of giving up runs = higher chance of blowing saves = less job security. The manager can back a guy all he wants but once they stop performing, there is definitely pressure to make a switch especially if the set-up guys is pitching lights out. These guys are always going to be more risky. But in a lot of leagues I play in, unless you pay a premium for saves, these are the guys you have to grasp at towards the end of drafts and the waiver wire.
Syfo-Dyas wrote:Read the first page. He argued what I said about what you really need to know. Than I was arguing that it does not really matter, that they have Adams and Pestano waiting in the pen to take over. I was arguing that even if their skill set is slightly worse, they have the job, and they can hold it as long as they get the job done. If I looking at skill set, Marshall would be very high on the list. But as I mentioned he has Dusty, who is not confident to name him closer.
Getting the job done is the main point. I don't see them getting the job done and I am pretty sure Hootie doesn't see them getting the job done. While right now they are secure in their roles, the season hasn't started yet. While managers don't look at the advanced stats, it is our main tool to try and figure out if a guy will continue doing what he is doing. So Perez might have the job but his 3 something ERA really wasn't that good and could have been a lot worse. Add in that he isn't striking people out as much which means more ball being put into play plus him walking a lot of batters and it doesn't look like he will continue to get the job done. So why draft a guy and expect him to keep his job when he is having a had time getting guys out. He might be the closer but that doesn't mean we have to run our fantasy teams as stupidly as some of the managers seem to.
"In the beginning the Universe was created. This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move."- Douglas Adams
HOOTIE wrote:I avoid closers who are at risk to blow up. 2 reasons.
1. I don't want the bad whip and era. 2. They are at risk, more then a good closer, of losing their jobs during the season.
I won't own guys like Nathan, Capps, Perez, Johnson.
Thats the difference. In fantasy ERA and WHIP matters. In real baseball, managers don't care about that much. The difference between 2,57 ERA and 3,29 ERA is 5 runs in 63.0 IP. Thats not much during the course of the season. And it's not really a threat to job security. But in fantasy it matters a lot, and you see those runs magnified.
ERA and WHIP may not matter to a manager, but it's going to matter to your fantasy team when your closer decides to get blown up for a day. Even in reality, the higher the WHIP = the more base runners = more chance of giving up runs = higher chance of blowing saves = less job security. The manager can back a guy all he wants but once they stop performing, there is definitely pressure to make a switch especially if the set-up guys is pitching lights out. These guys are always going to be more risky. But in a lot of leagues I play in, unless you pay a premium for saves, these are the guys you have to grasp at towards the end of drafts and the waiver wire.
This wasn't the subject of the debate. Anyway, at this point you still have to take Perez over Marshall if you want saves.
And as I said once a guy stops performing, and not talking about one or two blown saves, than theres no pressure to make a change. Managers can tell when a player disintegrates. Than you just call the guy into your office and tell him you are out, and if you want your job back, get your sh.t together.
the awesome sig by soty
"You should be mindful of the future, but not at the expense of the moment." - Qui-Gon Jinn (keeper league expert?)
Syfo-Dyas wrote:Read the first page. He argued what I said about what you really need to know. Than I was arguing that it does not really matter, that they have Adams and Pestano waiting in the pen to take over. I was arguing that even if their skill set is slightly worse, they have the job, and they can hold it as long as they get the job done. If I looking at skill set, Marshall would be very high on the list. But as I mentioned he has Dusty, who is not confident to name him closer.
Getting the job done is the main point. I don't see them getting the job done and I am pretty sure Hootie doesn't see them getting the job done. While right now they are secure in their roles, the season hasn't started yet. While managers don't look at the advanced stats, it is our main tool to try and figure out if a guy will continue doing what he is doing. So Perez might have the job but his 3 something ERA really wasn't that good and could have been a lot worse. Add in that he isn't striking people out as much which means more ball being put into play plus him walking a lot of batters and it doesn't look like he will continue to get the job done. So why draft a guy and expect him to keep his job when he is having a had time getting guys out. He might be the closer but that doesn't mean we have to run our fantasy teams as stupidly as some of the managers seem to.
Walking people is a valid point. That drives managers crazy. 2 run, 3 run HRs drive managers crazy. Everybody loves strikeouts, but managers don't mind balls in play. If the pitcher can induce weak contacts, than the pitcher is just fine. No need to worry. Even if that looks like lucky BABIP or bad xFIP. And that might make you think that they have a better chance to blow up. But until theres no mathematical difference between weak and solid contact regarding BABIP and FIP, we won't agree.
Well I guess we hijacked this simple question. Anyone needs WHIR?
the awesome sig by soty
"You should be mindful of the future, but not at the expense of the moment." - Qui-Gon Jinn (keeper league expert?)
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by Syfo-Dyas » Mon Apr 02, 2012 1:34 pm 
