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If you could have any 5 SP....

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Re: If you could have any 5 SP....

Postby BalataGrande » Mon Apr 02, 2012 5:12 pm

Skin Blues wrote:
lastingsgriller wrote:I am pretty neutral here... But I did not have him in my top 5 or even top 6.

I think the counter argument to yours is that in his second season as a starting pitcher he improved his whip from 1.25 to 1.19 (which is not considerably bad). His era improved from 3.35 to 2.94. So he is clearly progressing along a learning curve. Additionally the move from tex to laa should create significant improvements due to ballpark factor, defense behind him and getting out of Texas heat.

1.19 WHIP is good if he can repeat it. However none of the top projection systems thinks he can. Steamer is as good as it gets at projecting pitchers and they have him down for a 1.33 WHIP. Bill James has 1.23. ZiPS is 1.27. Mine is somewhere in between. Even last year's 1.19 only puts him 29th amongst qualified starting pitchers so you can see why he loses points there. WHIP has such a small fluctuation (it's per inning as opposed to per 9 innings like ERA, so any differences are reduced by a factor of 9) that it's hard to comprehend what that difference means. The small gap between Haren and Wilson's projected WHIP is the same in practical terms as the difference in ERA between Clayton Kershaw and Yovani Gallardo. Which is to say: pretty big.

So yes... I'd like to hear the argument for CJ Wilson over Dan Haren.


OK, I'll step into this. First, let me be clear that by going strictly by my projections, My list would be Kershaw, Felix, JJ, Weaver, Lincecum but thats not fun or controversial at all......I do have Wilson projected directly behind Lincecum FWIW. To compare Wilson and Haren, here are my projections:
Wilson - 17W 215IP 200K 2.80ERA 1.20WHIP
Haren - 17W 215IP 196K 3.28ERA 1.08WHIP
Not a great amount of difference, the biggest reason I put Wilson up there for conversation, is his ADP. He is at 81 and Weaver is 34, Lincecum is 29, Hamels is 38. By that fact alone, I like Wilson. I do own Wilson in 2 of my 3 $$$ leagues and Haren in 1 of 3. It's really splitting hairs when you're talking about the pitchers rated 6-10 IMO.
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Re: If you could have any 5 SP....

Postby hot4tx » Mon Apr 02, 2012 5:40 pm

Kershaw

Felix
Greinke
Haren
Weaver
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Re: If you could have any 5 SP....

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Mon Apr 02, 2012 5:48 pm

Skin Blues wrote:
lastingsgriller wrote:I am pretty neutral here... But I did not have him in my top 5 or even top 6.

I think the counter argument to yours is that in his second season as a starting pitcher he improved his whip from 1.25 to 1.19 (which is not considerably bad). His era improved from 3.35 to 2.94. So he is clearly progressing along a learning curve. Additionally the move from tex to laa should create significant improvements due to ballpark factor, defense behind him and getting out of Texas heat.

1.19 WHIP is good if he can repeat it. However none of the top projection systems thinks he can. Steamer is as good as it gets at projecting pitchers and they have him down for a 1.33 WHIP. Bill James has 1.23. ZiPS is 1.27. Mine is somewhere in between. Even last year's 1.19 only puts him 29th amongst qualified starting pitchers so you can see why he loses points there. WHIP has such a small fluctuation (it's per inning as opposed to per 9 innings like ERA, so any differences are reduced by a factor of 9) that it's hard to comprehend what that difference means. The small gap between Haren and Wilson's projected WHIP is the same in practical terms as the difference in ERA between Clayton Kershaw and Yovani Gallardo. Which is to say: pretty big.

So yes... I'd like to hear the argument for CJ Wilson over Dan Haren.


And how exactly Steamer came up with that ridiculous 1,33 WHIP?
He didnt have that high WHIP as a starter. Ever.
Is there a reason that everyone thinks he can't improve? Especially after leaving Arlington.
Or every 'top projection system' just plays it safe.
I have
Haren 3,18 ERA 1,04 WHIP, 7,7 K/9
Wilson 2,57 ERA, 1,17 WHIP, 8.2 K/9
So why Wilson over Haren?
Why not.
The same reason I took JJ and Hamels over Licecum and Haren, although I have the latter two ahead of them on my draft board.
But they all have similar value, so it's just personal.
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Re: If you could have any 5 SP....

Postby Skin Blues » Mon Apr 02, 2012 6:33 pm

JJ has his own concerns other than performance and taking him over Haren is lunacy... but anyway, there's a lot more to predicting future WHIP than using past WHIP. We're all aware of how peripherals affect ERA prediction (show me somebody that thinks Hellickson will toss up another 2.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP) so why is it such a stretch for people to translate that to WHIP?

You can ask Jared Cross how he and his research group comes up with the Steamer projections but they are pretty much universally accepted as the best based on every test that's been done since they started doing them in 2009. To explain it roughly, they use a method similar to SIERA (which itself is better than pretty much every other projection system, and Wilson had a 3.44 last year versus his 2.94 ERA) and also incorporate fastball velocity trends. Anyway... as good as we can project a large group of pitchers, there are always outliers. Maybe Wilson will be a large outlier and put up those numbers but to be honest it looks extremely optimistic much reasoning.
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Re: If you could have any 5 SP....

Postby TDS-MN » Tue Apr 03, 2012 6:29 pm

this year i lucked into this group:

Kershaw
Verlander
Sabathia
Hamels
Price

Backed up with Kennedy, Scherzer, Masterson. I feel pretty good about that group, but obviously it's early. This is an 8-team league, and auto-drafter, so I was a little surprised when I first saw the roster. Hoping it turns out well.
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Re: If you could have any 5 SP....

Postby AKhomebrewer » Wed Apr 04, 2012 1:00 am

Kershaw
Grienke
Lincecum
Weaver
Hamels
• Aaron Hill: Avoids DL Jul 12 (RotoWire)
• Aaron Hill: Headed for DL Jul 12 (RotoWire)
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Re: If you could have any 5 SP....

Postby mweir145 » Wed Apr 04, 2012 1:08 am

Halladay. He's so good the rest won't particularly matter, but if I had to choose, I'd go Felix, Hamels, Price, and Greinke.
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Re: If you could have any 5 SP....

Postby GiantsFan14 » Wed Apr 04, 2012 1:17 am

Kershaw
Greinke
Hamels
Lincecum
Bumgarner

I could see replacing Bumgarner with Haren if you want to pick for wins, I have the two ranked pretty close together.
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Re: If you could have any 5 SP....

Postby Shiti Field » Wed Apr 04, 2012 3:41 am

Reading comprehension fail on my previous post, lol.

I'm taking Kershaw from tier 1. Then I'll go:

Grienke
Strausberg
Weaver
Morrow

I'm super high on Morrow. That guy pitched to a 1.29 WHIP in the AL East with 203 K in 179 IP last year. I can see him having 230+ K in 210 IP and his whip projects a lower ERA than he actually had last year.
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Re: If you could have any 5 SP....

Postby kab21 » Wed Apr 04, 2012 6:50 am

Wilson isn't even close to the 2nd tier of pitchers mentioned imo. He has a shorter track record. I expect his BB/9 to regress back to the middle of his 2 seasons as a starter. His swstr% is also much lower than guys like Haren or even Weaver (not quite a 2nd tier guy). so I think the K/9 will regress back also. Did somebody really give a projection of 2.57 ERA for Wilson? What?

I'll take Garza before wilson but I'm really high on Garza this year (all 3 teams).

Halladay out of the top 5 although there isn't a bad choice

Greinke
Felix
Timmy
hamels
Haren

Felix is probably my cut in this group. Price was the 2nd to last cut. I'm not even considering JJ with his injury history he's not even close.
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