I have Wilson ranked as the 23rd fantasy SP this season.
He's lacking in every category compared to the top 10 pitchers. The only category he beats any of them in is Strasburg's Ws and Haren's Ks. But that's only because Strasburg has an innings cap. Wilson's WHIP is considerably bad. The only other SP in my top 25 with a worse WHIP (or even coming close) is Yovani Gallardo. And Gallardo is one of only a couple guys with a higher ERA as well.
I am pretty neutral here... But I did not have him in my top 5 or even top 6.
I think the counter argument to yours is that in his second season as a starting pitcher he improved his whip from 1.25 to 1.19 (which is not considerably bad). His era improved from 3.35 to 2.94. So he is clearly progressing along a learning curve. Additionally the move from tex to laa should create significant improvements due to ballpark factor, defense behind him and getting out of Texas heat.
lastingsgriller wrote:I am pretty neutral here... But I did not have him in my top 5 or even top 6.
I think the counter argument to yours is that in his second season as a starting pitcher he improved his whip from 1.25 to 1.19 (which is not considerably bad). His era improved from 3.35 to 2.94. So he is clearly progressing along a learning curve. Additionally the move from tex to laa should create significant improvements due to ballpark factor, defense behind him and getting out of Texas heat.
Correct, and if he takes another step forward he might approach some of the numbers the other SP mentioned post regularly. Some of them could have some real poor luck and/or regression and still out-perform Wilson. It doesn't speak to Wilson being a bad pitcher, but more to how elite some of these other arms are.
PS - I won this thread the instant HOOTIE agreed with my 5.
bigh0rt wrote:Correct, and if he takes another step forward he might approach some of the numbers the other SP mentioned post regularly. Some of them could have some real poor luck and/or regression and still out-perform Wilson. It doesn't speak to Wilson being a bad pitcher, but more to how elite some of these other arms are.
I accept this premise. Seems pretty flawless. Now, those that pick CJ ahead of hamels/haren/weaver, what say you??
lastingsgriller wrote:I am pretty neutral here... But I did not have him in my top 5 or even top 6.
I think the counter argument to yours is that in his second season as a starting pitcher he improved his whip from 1.25 to 1.19 (which is not considerably bad). His era improved from 3.35 to 2.94. So he is clearly progressing along a learning curve. Additionally the move from tex to laa should create significant improvements due to ballpark factor, defense behind him and getting out of Texas heat.
1.19 WHIP is good if he can repeat it. However none of the top projection systems thinks he can. Steamer is as good as it gets at projecting pitchers and they have him down for a 1.33 WHIP. Bill James has 1.23. ZiPS is 1.27. Mine is somewhere in between. Even last year's 1.19 only puts him 29th amongst qualified starting pitchers so you can see why he loses points there. WHIP has such a small fluctuation (it's per inning as opposed to per 9 innings like ERA, so any differences are reduced by a factor of 9) that it's hard to comprehend what that difference means. The small gap between Haren and Wilson's projected WHIP is the same in practical terms as the difference in ERA between Clayton Kershaw and Yovani Gallardo. Which is to say: pretty big.
So yes... I'd like to hear the argument for CJ Wilson over Dan Haren.
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by Pogotheostrich » Mon Apr 02, 2012 10:17 am 
