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Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year?

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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby Curtis Pride » Tue Apr 03, 2012 5:13 pm

In terms of "I should have known" not just "people I think will be great",

Pitchers: Garza and Greinke were awesome last year, just had horrible luck. If they continue that type of production and just have normal luck they will be huge steals where they are being drafted. I think Greinke is the #1 SP and Garza will be a top 10 SP.

Hitters: Adam Dunn and Jason Heyward.

Dunn has been awesome for years, is still young, and just had one bad year. This is a guy that in OPS leagues was getting drafted in the 2nd round every year, and you can get him in the 10th this year.

Heyward had a year at 20 that only compares to first ballot hall of famers. He was dreadful last year, but was battling some injuries. He doesn't get the loft to be a 40 homer guy yet, but I'd be surprised if he had under 25 homers and under an .850 OPS this year. I suspect about a .300/.425/.500 line with 30 homers.
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby DbacksRback » Tue Apr 03, 2012 6:23 pm

Anyone think Phil Hughes puts together a solid year?

Just put upton on the DL for Carpenter who I put on my DL for Hughes.
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Tue Apr 03, 2012 9:24 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
Syfo-Dyas wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:What a horrible comparison.

an extensive analysis, based on personal feelings by a Butler owner.
That's the problem when people baselessly throw out, "Those doubles turn into Home Runs ya know!" It was pretty well thought several years ago that Markakis did not have the make up, nor the skill set to ever produce solid HR totals, despite his gap power. In fact, The Artful Dodger and I wrote a piece on it, comparing he and Kemp several seasons ago, and that exact thing was pointed out. His ISO power has steadily decreased in each of the last five seasons. What many predicted of him has come to fruition -- he never developed the power that the "Doubles turn into Home Runs!" crowd hoped he would. Butler, on the other hand, possesses legitimate 25 HR power in his bat (possibly 30), which he displayed over the latter portion of last season.

This post is much better. ;-D

Butler probably fits the "could have seen that coming guy". But not for long.
He displayed this kinda power you talking about over the latter portion of the 2009 season. And than he regressed.
So it is possible that he becomes Markakis v2.0.
Which was my reaction to this statement:
TheRock wrote: The power's coming,
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"You should be mindful of the future, but not at the expense of the
moment." - Qui-Gon Jinn (keeper league expert?)
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby kab21 » Tue Apr 03, 2012 10:10 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
Syfo-Dyas wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:What a horrible comparison.

an extensive analysis, based on personal feelings by a Butler owner.
That's the problem when people baselessly throw out, "Those doubles turn into Home Runs ya know!" It was pretty well thought several years ago that Markakis did not have the make up, nor the skill set to ever produce solid HR totals, despite his gap power. In fact, The Artful Dodger and I wrote a piece on it, comparing he and Kemp several seasons ago, and that exact thing was pointed out. His ISO power has steadily decreased in each of the last five seasons. What many predicted of him has come to fruition -- he never developed the power that the "Doubles turn into Home Runs!" crowd hoped he would. Butler, on the other hand, possesses legitimate 25 HR power in his bat (possibly 30), which he displayed over the latter portion of last season.


What kind of analysis did you do for butler? I see a hitter that puts the ball on the ground a lot. I also don't see a dead pull hitter. The reason he hits a lot of doubles is that he's hitting them where the field is 375-410 feet deep. If you want to hit a lot of HR's then you need to hit them down the lines where it's 340 feet.
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby kemper5 » Wed Apr 04, 2012 12:38 am

Delmon Young..I think he meets 2010 stats and goes off in that lineup in Det..A 28 HR, 105 RBI, .285 type year..
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby AussieDodger » Wed Apr 04, 2012 3:03 am

Curtis Pride wrote:Pitchers: Garza and Greinke were awesome last year, just had horrible luck. If they continue that type of production and just have normal luck they will be huge steals where they are being drafted. I think Greinke is the #1 SP and Garza will be a top 10 SP.


This.
Although I am a little worried that Garza's 2011 looks like a career year, it is so different to the others
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby kab21 » Wed Apr 04, 2012 3:14 am

AussieDodger wrote:
Curtis Pride wrote:Pitchers: Garza and Greinke were awesome last year, just had horrible luck. If they continue that type of production and just have normal luck they will be huge steals where they are being drafted. I think Greinke is the #1 SP and Garza will be a top 10 SP.


This.
Although I am a little worried that Garza's 2011 looks like a career year, it is so different to the others


He did make some pretty substantial changes to his pitch mix last year and it showed up in swstr% which backs up the improvement.
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby k.k. » Wed Apr 04, 2012 5:39 am

kemper5 wrote:Delmon Young..I think he meets 2010 stats and goes off in that lineup in Det..A 28 HR, 105 RBI, .285 type year..

I was going to add Delmon Young's name to this thread. For sure, I see him going off this year and being a great value for where you probably got him in the draft.
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby garf112 » Wed Apr 04, 2012 8:20 am

Gavin Floyd is this year's James Shields. Same age, same amount of major league innings, similar skill set, showed promise earlier in majors, pitched much better than stats last year and the list goes on... just needs a bit of luck.

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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby Ender » Wed Apr 04, 2012 8:54 am

Butler is always underrated so not sure he really fits in here, it is mostly because people overvalue HR and undervalue AVG in their rankings.

Gavin Floyd doesn't really have the stuff to be the next James Shields though I expect him to bounce back. I expect the White Sox to win over 81 games too, everything bounced wrong for that team last year and they almost were .500. I won't even be amazed if they win that division instead of the Tigers who are massively overrated but will likely make the playoffs since the division is so weak.
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