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Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year?

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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby ayebatter » Sat Mar 30, 2013 10:56 pm

umphrey wrote:Bryce Harper?

Most smart people aren't drafting him very high, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up a top 5 pick next year and we all feel stupid.



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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby ROC AllStars » Sat Mar 30, 2013 11:19 pm

How about Wilin Rosario? Seems he's going way later that Weiters, Napoli, Molina, etc. he has great upside in the power categories, hits at Coors field, and should be in line for a 400+ AB. Manageable BA (.260 range) with 25+ HR for a lot cheaper than the more well known names.
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby ramble2 » Sat Mar 30, 2013 11:43 pm

Here's two, though maybe everyone already sees them coming:

1. Jeter. Being written off way too early at a weak position. Obviously won't start the season off strong (or at all when he's on the DL), but once back he's a prime candidate for a decent season (relative to other SS). Decent average, good run producer, typical Jeter.

2. Trout. "I should have seen the big drop off in HR."
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby Metropolitans » Sat Mar 30, 2013 11:49 pm

umphrey wrote:
rotoquest wrote:
umphrey wrote:Bryce Harper?

Most smart people aren't drafting him very high, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up a top 5 pick next year and we all feel stupid.


Now wait a minute, of you couldn't see him coming the you can't see the big E on the chart.


he's going in the 3rd-4th round, are you taking him in the top half of the first?


if hes lasting until the 4th round in any of your leagues, that's absolutely pathetic!

I think the point is, he could be a bonafide 1st rounder, possibly in the top 5 convo nextyr
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby Metropolitans » Sat Mar 30, 2013 11:57 pm

umphrey wrote:
footballisbetter.com wrote:How about Freddie Freeman? Does he count, or are people already high on him? I think he could be really nice in that lineup and be near the top of HR leaders in the NL.


He's generally thought of as kind of a low upside guy, so maybe he does hit 30 HRs, but no one "should have seen it coming", IMO


I sorta disagree... he really is a "I should've seen that coming" guy... he could go 35-110 with that lineup. rookie year he goes 21-76, soph campaign, with nagging injuries all year, he improves to 23-94. now with an amazing top of the lineup and protection, he could make the leap from a 7th-9th round guy, to the 2nd/3rd round. That's a guy youre gonna say, "Goddamn, I should've seen that coming!" ;-D
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby Metropolitans » Sun Mar 31, 2013 12:03 am

Fade2White12 wrote:Carl Crawford - except that I do see it coming.


;-D

its funny bc lastyr he was my "guy" but he burnt me badly..... now usually I don't come back for more but for some odd reason, im all over him again this season! im drinkin the Crawford Kool-Aid this season too! :-D

every season there's a handful of veterans who sucked for the last year or two and then bounce-back to their 'old form', I believe Carl is one of those!
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby reiser » Sun Mar 31, 2013 1:12 pm

Ender wrote: K% and BB% are the stats that are worth tracking, K/9 and BB/9 are useless.


Not to start an argument on the internet, but advanced pitcher metrics fascinate me. That's an unusually strong conclusion and I can't seem to find anything convincing me to discard K/9 after a somewhat exhaustive search of the usual suspects (Fangraphs, THT, etc.) At best you find something like this, which shows that far from useless, they are basically the same stat, leading me to believe that it comes down to a matter of preference, and in any rate, both are somewhat BABIP inflated. Image

cf. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... pitcher-k/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... 2002-2012/
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby J35J » Sun Mar 31, 2013 1:25 pm

reiser wrote:
Ender wrote: K% and BB% are the stats that are worth tracking, K/9 and BB/9 are useless.


Not to start an argument on the internet, but advanced pitcher metrics fascinate me. That's an unusually strong conclusion and I can't seem to find anything convincing me to discard K/9 after a somewhat exhaustive search of the usual suspects (Fangraphs, THT, etc.) At best you find something like this, which shows that far from useless, they are basically the same stat, leading me to believe that it comes down to a matter of preference, and in any rate, both are somewhat BABIP inflated. Image

cf. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... pitcher-k/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... 2002-2012/


K/9 and BB/9 aren't useless but the reason why K% would be better is because it shows a more true level of talent.

Example...
1IP, 4H, 2BB, 1K

vs

1IP, 0H, 0BB, 1K


both of those guys are showing 9k per 9 but the first guy is at 11% K%(He had 9 chances to get his 1 strikeout) and the second guy is 33% K%(Got his 1 strike out in 3 tries)
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby OBPlover » Sun Mar 31, 2013 4:04 pm

A lot of guys have been mentioned on this thread. But MLB is just a small handful of proven, reliable hitters...and then a whole bunch of players that have many reasons why they could be great or a big disappointment. Age, injury history, general inconsistency, switches to or from leagues/ballparks, good springs, bad sprigs, etc. It's no wonder why one man's sleeper is another man's overrated.

There are really only a few "I should have seen that coming guys". There names are Myers, Taveras, D'arnaud, Miller, etc. After what happened last year with Trout - everyone will have a "I should have drafted this rookie" story by 2014.
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby umphrey » Sun Mar 31, 2013 10:08 pm

OBPlover wrote:A lot of guys have been mentioned on this thread. But MLB is just a small handful of proven, reliable hitters...and then a whole bunch of players that have many reasons why they could be great or a big disappointment. Age, injury history, general inconsistency, switches to or from leagues/ballparks, good springs, bad sprigs, etc. It's no wonder why one man's sleeper is another man's overrated.

There are really only a few "I should have seen that coming guys". There names are Myers, Taveras, D'arnaud, Miller, etc. After what happened last year with Trout - everyone will have a "I should have drafted this rookie" story by 2014.


IMO there isn't a Trout or a Harper or a Strasburg in the rookie crop this year. Myers, Tavares, Miller, they just aren't on the same level. Profar is close but he's more like "good for a shortstop", because he wouldn't go much better than 20/20 right now I think. I'm still grabbing 1-2 rookies per team because I think it's good to balance your roster that way, but it's bad to have selective memory. Just because it happened twice last year, it's historically rare and I don't see anyone now that compares to Trout or Harper at this time last year. Except maybe Profar, and only if you limit the scope to SS only.
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