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Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year?

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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby OBPlover » Sat Mar 30, 2013 3:23 pm

Ender wrote:Or he'll pitch just like last year because he is in a strong division and worse park which is going to offset any gains he has from starting the year healthy.


I kept hearing that Josh Johnson lost something off his fastball and now throws in only about the 88-90 MPH range, where as in his domination years, he was throwing around 93-95MPH.

Josh Johnson risk checklist:

Injury History - Check
Decrease in "stuff" - check
Moved to an American League hitters park that punishes RH Pitching - check
Wasn't even really dominant the previous year - Check

I am a blue jays fan but I wouldn't gamble with JJ unless I got outstanding value. But he's going for the 10-15 dollar mark and I'm going to pass. No pitcher with 4 checkmarks should be paid for with double digits.
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby Izenhart » Sat Mar 30, 2013 3:44 pm

OBPlover wrote:
Ender wrote:Or he'll pitch just like last year because he is in a strong division and worse park which is going to offset any gains he has from starting the year healthy.


I kept hearing that Josh Johnson lost something off his fastball and now throws in only about the 88-90 MPH range, where as in his domination years, he was throwing around 93-95MPH.

Josh Johnson risk checklist:

Injury History - Check
Decrease in "stuff" - check
Moved to an American League hitters park that punishes RH Pitching - check
Wasn't even really dominant the previous year - Check

I am a blue jays fan but I wouldn't gamble with JJ unless I got outstanding value. But he's going for the 10-15 dollar mark and I'm going to pass. No pitcher with 4 checkmarks should be paid for with double digits.


If you believe all that then fine, but when Roger Clemens went from Boston to Toronto he had all those checks plus age and we know what happened next. I think JJ will rebound a good amount, but I think his K rate will continue to drop slowly.
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby Skin Blues » Sat Mar 30, 2013 4:08 pm

That's using "injuries" pretty broadly. Johnson has an average of 20 starts per season due to chronic shoulder problems (the worst type of injury for a pitcher) and has shown a 2 MPH decrease in velocity. Clemens started an average of 32 games per season in the 11 years leading up to his stint with the Jays, including 34 the year before he left Boston, with the second highest K/9 of his career at the time. And he stayed within the same division, and came from a park with the shortest LF fence in the majors. So... pretty much zero of those checkmarks apply to him.

I'm a Jays fan too, and I'm glad we have JJ, but there are tons of concerns. Well, two concerns I guess. Health and ability. He's been much more hittable since the shoulder trouble/velocity decrease and can no longer rely on just blowing his fastball by anybody. Maybe he can adjust to working more with his other pitches, but he's just not the same guy he was in 2009/2010.
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby bigh0rt » Sat Mar 30, 2013 4:12 pm

Izenhart wrote:
OBPlover wrote:
Ender wrote:Or he'll pitch just like last year because he is in a strong division and worse park which is going to offset any gains he has from starting the year healthy.


I kept hearing that Josh Johnson lost something off his fastball and now throws in only about the 88-90 MPH range, where as in his domination years, he was throwing around 93-95MPH.

Josh Johnson risk checklist:

Injury History - Check
Decrease in "stuff" - check
Moved to an American League hitters park that punishes RH Pitching - check
Wasn't even really dominant the previous year - Check

I am a blue jays fan but I wouldn't gamble with JJ unless I got outstanding value. But he's going for the 10-15 dollar mark and I'm going to pass. No pitcher with 4 checkmarks should be paid for with double digits.


If you believe all that then fine, but when Roger Clemens went from Boston to Toronto he had all those checks plus age and we know what happened next. I think JJ will rebound a good amount, but I think his K rate will continue to drop slowly.

I don't think Roger Clemens had any of those things... He went from the AL East to.... the AL East. There were no reports of a loss in velocity of stuff, aside from possibly the Boston media trying to slander him the way they do it seems every player as they leave Boston. Made 34 starts his final year in Boston. You could make the "wasn't even really dominant argument" because he didn't have great ratios or a great record, but he did strike out 257 guys which I think led the Majors that year. It's hard to find a much more apples and oranges comparison to be made here...
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby Izenhart » Sat Mar 30, 2013 4:33 pm

bigh0rt wrote:I don't think Roger Clemens had any of those things... He went from the AL East to.... the AL East. There were no reports of a loss in velocity of stuff, aside from possibly the Boston media trying to slander him the way they do it seems every player as they leave Boston. Made 34 starts his final year in Boston. You could make the "wasn't even really dominant argument" because he didn't have great ratios or a great record, but he did strike out 257 guys which I think led the Majors that year. It's hard to find a much more apples and oranges comparison to be made here...


You're right that was a really biased and poor example. I do think JJ will preform better than people expect though. A lot of time it takes a pitcher a year to get their feet re-wet before reestablishing their previous command. Even though it is only spring, he's got 21 K's against 1 BB in 16 IP so far.
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby OBPlover » Sat Mar 30, 2013 4:48 pm

Izenhart wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:I don't think Roger Clemens had any of those things... He went from the AL East to.... the AL East. There were no reports of a loss in velocity of stuff, aside from possibly the Boston media trying to slander him the way they do it seems every player as they leave Boston. Made 34 starts his final year in Boston. You could make the "wasn't even really dominant argument" because he didn't have great ratios or a great record, but he did strike out 257 guys which I think led the Majors that year. It's hard to find a much more apples and oranges comparison to be made here...


You're right that was a really biased and poor example. I do think JJ will preform better than people expect though. A lot of time it takes a pitcher a year to get their feet re-wet before reestablishing their previous command. Even though it is only spring, he's got 21 K's against 1 BB in 16 IP so far.


That's the one thing that makes me a little bit optomistic for him. His spring was incredible. The stats must be taken with the proverbial "grain of salt" but are not meaningless.
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby Ender » Sat Mar 30, 2013 5:59 pm

So what we have established is whatever JJ ends up doing we should have seen it coming which just goes to show that most likely whatever happened there was a reason that you shouldn't have seen it coming~.
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby umphrey » Sat Mar 30, 2013 6:33 pm

Bryce Harper?

Most smart people aren't drafting him very high, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up a top 5 pick next year and we all feel stupid.
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby rotoquest » Sat Mar 30, 2013 7:15 pm

umphrey wrote:Bryce Harper?

Most smart people aren't drafting him very high, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up a top 5 pick next year and we all feel stupid.


Now wait a minute, of you couldn't see him coming the you can't see the big E on the chart.
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby umphrey » Sat Mar 30, 2013 8:37 pm

rotoquest wrote:
umphrey wrote:Bryce Harper?

Most smart people aren't drafting him very high, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up a top 5 pick next year and we all feel stupid.


Now wait a minute, of you couldn't see him coming the you can't see the big E on the chart.


he's going in the 3rd-4th round, are you taking him in the top half of the first?
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