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Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year?

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Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year?

Postby Bosy Billups » Sat Mar 31, 2012 3:09 pm

A variation of the breakout guy, but a bit different. Each year, there is one or two players that have monster career years (e.g. top 5-10) that makes so much sense in hindsight, or from the get to, but was not foreseen by the masses pre-season. Examples include Ibanez that first half with Philly a few years back, Greinke when he won the Cy, Ellsbury last year...


There's only one or 4 a year, so can't be all, but I'm calling 3 specific players:

Scherzer
Morrow
Bruce
Hosmer
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby bigh0rt » Sat Mar 31, 2012 3:42 pm

FWIW, I don't think many people saw a 30 HR season coming from Jacoby Ellsbury last season. Those who claim to have are probably lying. :-b

Your SP seem more like "if they ever put it together" guys instead of should have seen it coming. We've pretty much seen what they have to offer, but they each offer inherent flaws that have prevented them from elevating their games to an elite level. Hindsight is always 20/20, but these aren't guys we're necessarily expecting to elevate their game as much as we've identified them as guys who possess the skills to one day do it if they can get past their individual stumbling blocks.

Bruce I see as, similarly to Giancarlo Stanton, a guy who offers tremendous power upside but not a ton else. He's a .260 hitter and if he hits above that, it's probably BABIP related, as seen in 2010. I don't expect to see .280 again unless he changes something. So yeah, he may approach or even surpass 35 HR this season, but he'll likely do it batting .260, chip in 5 - 10 SB, maybe reach 100 RBI, but if he bats 5th he's likely not going to approach the 90 Run mark. Even batting 4th he may struggle to. So yeah his upside is excellent, but I don't think anybody has doubted that since he was called up, and he's not exactly being overlooked when his Median Draft Position is at the beginning of the 4th Round.

Hosmer has the potential to put up a Vottoesque line, but again, nobody's sleeping on it, he's being drafted in 5th Round, and it's much more likely that he has his ups and downs this season and disappoints given some of the lofty expectations being put on him, than become a massive value.

For candidates for me, I see possibilities of...

Brett Lawrie -- similar thing could be said about him as Hosmer, but 3B doesn't have the elite players that 1B does in terms of depth, and Lawrie could very easily place himself in the Top 2 or 3 in that position without even reaching his ceiling this season.

Andrew McCutchen -- could easily find himself outperforming the Gonzalezes, Ellsburys, Grandersons, etc. of the world. Is every bit the 30/30 candidate that any of them are. Being drafted in the late-2nd/early-3rd Round, but it's rare you're going to find a guy being drafted too too low who may end up one of the Top 5 or so players in the game.

Alex Rodriguez -- he's been banged up and we've forgotten just how good he is. His production will rely entirely on his health, which prospects aren't wonderful on, but the treatment he got has worked just fine for Kobe, so that's a little encouraging. In the 5th Round he's still got the potential to give you 30 maybe even 35 HR in that ballpark, bat .280, and surpass both 100 Runs and RBIs. Dude managed 67 and 62 last season in just 99 games. He's just 2 seasons removed from a 125 RBI campaign.

Carl Crawford -- remember when he was drafted in the 1st Round last year? That wasn't by accident. No reason he can't approach 15 HR and 60 SB like he did with Tampa in '09 or 19/47 like in '10. When the end of the season rolls around, I think we're much more likely to see a season that mirrors the rest of his career arc thus far than last season's disappointment, and he's being drafted in Round 5.

Stephen Strasburg -- obvious statement is obvious.
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby West » Sat Mar 31, 2012 3:50 pm

I should have seen it coming -
Madison Bumgarner, Matt Wieters, Brandon Beachy, Jay Bruce, Chris Sale

I might have seen that coming:
Mike Minor, Colby Rasmus, Francisco Liriano, Peter Bourjos, Dexter Fowler

There's no way I could have seen that coming:
Juan Nicasio, Vance Worley, Henderson Alvarez

Side note - I'm not predicting breakouts for all of these guys, rather that they will return a healthy profit on your investment.
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby HOOTIE » Sat Mar 31, 2012 4:04 pm

Justin Smoak is all but forgotton, but was a top 10 prospect.
A 25/80 line would not surprise me.

Matt Wieters 25/80

Mike Minor becomes this years Beachy

Dustin Ackely exceeds all projections

D Young goes 25/80
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby West » Sat Mar 31, 2012 4:47 pm

Wieters going 25-80 would actually slightly disappoint me.
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby lastingsgriller » Sat Mar 31, 2012 7:32 pm

West wrote:I should have seen it coming -
Madison Bumgarner,



If you have spent more than like 20 minutes at the cafe and you didn't see this coming, you're just not paying attention.

this place may as well just be synonymous with The Madison Bumgarner fan club.
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby Izenhart » Sat Mar 31, 2012 8:05 pm

I see three Orioles I like to break out. Weiters, Adam Jones and Chris Davis.

Last year if anyone on here said they thought Ellsbury had a shot at a 30-30 season the would have been laughed off the board. That would be like me saying I think Austin Jackson is going to go 30-30 this year.

I do think if anyone has a surprisingly huge season it will be Delmon Young. If he hit .320 with 35 bombs I wouldn't blink an eye. I also think Neil Walker has an outside shot at 30 home runs and 100 RBI. And one more player I'll throw out there for a potential 25 HR, 25 SB, 100 RBI season out of nowhere: Alexei Ramirez.

Chances either of those 3 things happen: about 0.1%. Buy hey who knows. That's why this game is fun, anything can happen. Brady Anderson hit 50 home runs one year didn't he
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby Inukchuk » Sat Mar 31, 2012 8:21 pm

I like the Smoak mention, and I'm going to throw Sale out there. Highly touted prospect and he was filthy last season in relief. I see no reason why he can't put up Pineda like numbers, minus the wins...
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby Bravos of Steel » Sat Mar 31, 2012 9:36 pm

I'll throw Allen Craig into to mix. I think if he can stay healthy after this first knee problem, then he could resemble Michael Morse numbers. .315/.362/.555 line last year, and 11 HRs in 219 PA's. If he can hold up physically, I'm expecting big things, and could be an absolute steal in most leagues.
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Re: Who's the "I should have seen that coming" guy this year

Postby kab21 » Sat Mar 31, 2012 10:27 pm

Matt Garza - he used his fastball less and his K and GB rates moving significantly in better directions. His swstr% increased a lot showing support for his improved K rate. I think he has a '09 Greinke like breakout season and the big debate becomes whether or not a player on a crappy team should win Cy.

Craig, Sale, Wieters, Minor are a few good calls. Delmon could have a really good season now that he's away from MN hitting coaches but I'm not drafting him.

I think everyone has overreacted on Mous.
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