lastingsgriller wrote:I just want people to realize that he is not guaranteed to be the next Ryan Braun. There is a possibility he will be, but there is also a possibility he won't be.
Groundbreaking analysis
But yes, he is being taken too early for my liking. As good as we all think he will be, there are risks since he has only 150 MLB at-bats. Injuries (as was mentioned he plays balls to the wall full out on every play - we don't know if that will lead to a lot of injuries), how he deals with a slump, how he will react when pitchers adjust to him, etc. Just like any playuer, when people are drafting based on ceiling insstead of expectation, it's best to avoid. Luckily Brandon Beachy and Cory Luebke didn't have the hype train drag them aboard although they are just as deserving of it, in my opinion.
Beachy and Luebke don't have 30/30 potential at 3B.
Luebke sort of came out of nowhere to become what looks like a solid pitcher.
Beachy was hurt last year and aside from K/IP nothing stands out about him.
Lawrie looks like a bus, hits like a truck and lived up to the hype immediately. Thus the hype train rolls along.
Waaaaay off topic here, but how do you figure K/IP is the only thing that stands out? Can you find one negative thing about his performance last season? Certainly K/IP is very impressive but so are his K/BB, BB/9, ERA, WHIP... pretty much everything.
Skin Blues wrote:Waaaaay off topic here, but how do you figure K/IP is the only thing that stands out? Can you find one negative thing about his performance last season? Certainly K/IP is very impressive but so are his K/BB, BB/9, ERA, WHIP... pretty much everything.
Beachy's other numbers are good, fantasy relevant for sure. Just not eye popping enough for people to sit up and say wow that's a can't miss - which I am grateful for, it has kept him undervalued. If his ERA had been sub-3 and whip sub 1.2 I think his stock would be much higher. The 3.68 ERA is probably scaring people off a little.
Of the many teams I drafted (20+) Beachy might be the pitcher I picked up more than any other. Luebke probably happens to be my second most drafted P. The team listed in my sig is a collection of players I targeted most at each position. I don't actually have a team exactly like that, although a couple of them are really close.
Team Izzy C Mauer 1 E5 2 Cano 3 ARam S Rollins CI LaRoche MI Altuve O Melky, Pagan, Morse, Hunter, Ruggiano SP Lee, Fister, Estrada, McCarthy, Lohse RP Chapman, Jansen, Frieri, Fujikawa Bench 1 Hart S Cabrera O Eaton U Ortiz P Marcum P Miller P Fernandez
by footballisbetter.com » Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:10 pm
Is he really going to bat 7th? This is from CBS. Is there a better place to look for projected batting orders?
Toronto Blue Jays Probable Lineup No. Player Pos. 1. Yunel Escobar SS 2. Kelly Johnson 2B 3. Jose Bautista RF 4. Adam Lind 1B 5. Edwin Encarnacion DH 6. Colby Rasmus CF 7. Brett Lawrie 3B 8. Eric Thames LF 9. J.P. Arencibia C
Not even Joe Torre could bat him 7th...that lineup looks awful
If he truly does bat 7th that changes my opinion of him because R/RBI are heavily affected, and even Hr/SB to a lesser extent...no reason he shouldn't be hitting 5th after Lind at worst
Why don't they just get a house that's already painted?
Farrell said very early that Lawrie would start off batting 7th. That lineup looks about right to start the season except that I expect Johnson to hit leadoff and Escobar to hit second most often. Edwin was ridiculously effective as a DH last year and could move up to cleanup. Lawrie could eventually move ahead of Rasmus and Lind.
They want to go R/L/R/L/R which is why Yunel leads off and Lind is cleanup. I doubt they'd bundle up 4 righties in a row with Yunel, Bautista, Edwin and Lawrie in the 2-5 slots. Not that I think it should be a strict alternation, but I think Johnson in the 2 spot is a good idea. It's tough when all the best hitters are righties. Hopefully two of Lind/Johnson/Rasmus step it up this seaosn and deserve a top 5 spot in the order.
Honestly that's a load of crap though guys...Any manager that thinks its a sound idea to get Kelly Johnson 100 more plate appearances than Brett Lawrie is just not thinking straight. Nevermind Colby Rasmus ahead of him that's just asinine any way you want to slice it. I don't get it..but I guess that's why i don't manage..
Why don't they just get a house that's already painted?
Well, batting Lawrie 5th instead of 2nd reduces his PA by about 50. And Kelly Johnson is really not a whole lot worse of a hitter. There's a very minimal effect of small batting order changes like that. A guy that used to come around here, Xeifrank, did a lot of simulations to find how important it is. For most small tweaks it made no difference at all. If managers think they can get a strategic advantage by alternating R/L/R/L then I don't have a big issue with it. I bet the guys selling the farm to get Lawrie this season would be happier with those extra 50 PA though!
Might not be the worst thing to start him hitting 7th, maybe take a little of the pressure off. He doesn't seem to me like someone effected by pressure, but again, might not be the worst idea. At least early in the year.
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by lastingsgriller » Fri Mar 30, 2012 3:51 pm 
