People who expect Lawrie to go 30/30 are crazy? Got it.
That being said, I doubt if there are many people drafting him and expecting that. I own him, got him in a roto mixed, 12 team, OPS, auction league with 260 budget for 19 bucks. There's probably a dollar or two tagged on him for his upside. I drafted him expecting him to be somewhere around 20/20 with an (OPS of .830) with a ceiling of about 25/25 and a very small chance he could threaten 30/30. I just think it's kind of a "straw man" argument to suggest that tons of people have these outrageous hopes for him and then attack these absurd projections.
kab21 wrote:It's obvious in this thread that no 22 yr old almost rookie has ever struggled when getting promoted to the majors. Lawrie looks awesome but I would not be shocked if he needed another season or two before he became awesome.
vague answer to a secondary question - Unusual Suspects
Seriously.
Just because Alex Gordon FINALLY broke out everyone has to be reminded of how much he struggled when he got to the Majors?
OnceinDC2\1 wrote:People who expect Lawrie to go 30/30 are crazy? Got it.
I agree, if he doesn't go at least 50/50 then this kid is a complete bust.
If you are thinking that the people expecting 30/30 are just the occasional Blue Jay homer then that isn't at all consistent with what I have seen. There are plenty of people who see 25/25 as his floor.
Mookie4ever wrote:Eric Hosmer? pffft His BB% 6% is and his K% is 14.6% he can't possibly be any good.
You know who else had similar rates their rookie season? Lou Gehrig. I think we all can see where this is leading.
Eric Hosmer Disease?
I would think the odds of two different MLB players being stricken by a disease that happened to have the exact same name as the player would be astronomical.
1. As I said, I created this thread in reaction to seeing him go #23 overall in a draft and hearing two separate people talk about his 30/30 potential in a two day stretch. I'm just trying to slow the hype train a bit, it's picking up steam every day.
2. Now your saying people are seeing a 25/25 floor?!?! If 25/25 is the floor what kind of ceiling is that?
I just want people to realize that he is not guaranteed to be the next Ryan Braun. There is a possibility he will be, but there is also a possibility he won't be.
lastingsgriller wrote:1. As I said, I created this thread in reaction to seeing him go #23 overall in a draft and hearing two separate people talk about his 30/30 potential in a two day stretch. I'm just trying to slow the hype train a bit, it's picking up steam every day.
2. Now your saying people are seeing a 25/25 floor?!?! If 25/25 is the floor what kind of ceiling is that?
I just want people to realize that he is not guaranteed to be the next Ryan Braun. There is a possibility he will be, but there is also a possibility he won't be.
Fair, #23 overall is insane. I am entirely in agreement. I also agree that seeing 25/25 as the floor is silly, that's really what I view as his ceiling. The odds of someone just showing up and mashing from day one are exceedingly slim.
I should also point out, my 30/30 comment was not defending people who believe that, but just thought it was funny to have to state the obvious. The odds of a 30/30 campaign are less than 10% and probably less than 5%.
lastingsgriller wrote:1. As I said, I created this thread in reaction to seeing him go #23 overall in a draft and hearing two separate people talk about his 30/30 potential in a two day stretch. I'm just trying to slow the hype train a bit, it's picking up steam every day.
2. Now your saying people are seeing a 25/25 floor?!?! If 25/25 is the floor what kind of ceiling is that?
I just want people to realize that he is not guaranteed to be the next Ryan Braun. There is a possibility he will be, but there is also a possibility he won't be.
30/30 shouldn't be an expectation, but it's nice that it's even a conversation that can be had as being within the realm of possibility. People will often say a guy has 30/30 upside, when in reality he doesn't. Lawrie is a guy who legitimately does. That said, 25/25 is a ridiculous floor. He could easily belt 17 HR though I think 25 SB is an easy floor for expectation especially if Mookie is correct about the Jays having the green light this year.
lastingsgriller wrote:I just want people to realize that he is not guaranteed to be the next Ryan Braun. There is a possibility he will be, but there is also a possibility he won't be.
Groundbreaking analysis
But yes, he is being taken too early for my liking. As good as we all think he will be, there are risks since he has only 150 MLB at-bats. Injuries (as was mentioned he plays balls to the wall full out on every play - we don't know if that will lead to a lot of injuries), how he deals with a slump, how he will react when pitchers adjust to him, etc. Just like any playuer, when people are drafting based on ceiling insstead of expectation, it's best to avoid. Luckily Brandon Beachy and Cory Luebke didn't have the hype train drag them aboard although they are just as deserving of it, in my opinion.
lastingsgriller wrote:I just want people to realize that he is not guaranteed to be the next Ryan Braun. There is a possibility he will be, but there is also a possibility he won't be.
Groundbreaking analysis
But yes, he is being taken too early for my liking. As good as we all think he will be, there are risks since he has only 150 MLB at-bats. Injuries (as was mentioned he plays balls to the wall full out on every play - we don't know if that will lead to a lot of injuries), how he deals with a slump, how he will react when pitchers adjust to him, etc. Just like any playuer, when people are drafting based on ceiling insstead of expectation, it's best to avoid. Luckily Brandon Beachy and Cory Luebke didn't have the hype train drag them aboard although they are just as deserving of it, in my opinion.
Beachy and Luebke don't have 30/30 potential at 3B.
Luebke sort of came out of nowhere to become what looks like a solid pitcher.
Beachy was hurt last year and aside from K/IP nothing stands out about him.
Lawrie looks like a bus, hits like a truck and lived up to the hype immediately. Thus the hype train rolls along.
Team Izzy C Mauer 1 E5 2 Cano 3 ARam S Rollins CI LaRoche MI Altuve O Melky, Pagan, Morse, Hunter, Ruggiano SP Lee, Fister, Estrada, McCarthy, Lohse RP Chapman, Jansen, Frieri, Fujikawa Bench 1 Hart S Cabrera O Eaton U Ortiz P Marcum P Miller P Fernandez
Tavish wrote:You know who else had similar rates their rookie season? Lou Gehrig. I think we all can see where this is leading.
Eric Hosmer Disease?
I would think the odds of two different MLB players being stricken by a disease that happened to have the exact same name as the player would be astronomical.
Tommy John, Lou Gherig, Eric Hosmer. Inconceivable.
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by OnceinDC2\1 » Fri Mar 30, 2012 11:21 am 
