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ENOUGH! The Brett lawrie love has gone too far.

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ENOUGH! The Brett lawrie love has gone too far.

Postby lastingsgriller » Wed Mar 28, 2012 2:52 pm

Honestly.. He's good, he's got great upside. But, get this 30hr stuff out of your head. It's not going to happen.

He had 26 hrs in his last 846 minor league at-bats.

What makes you think he'll have 30 in 500 MLB at-bats? Is it because he had 9 in 43 games last year? Guess what, guys.. He was on fire. It happens. Small sample size is way overrating him right now. Last year he had a hr every 16.6 at-bats. That's Pujols-esque. Brett lawrie is not Albert Pujols, nor is he Ryan Braun, yet.

Stop overvaluing. Get 30/30 out of your head or you'll just be disappointed. Expect 18/25 and be ecstatic when you get it. I would hate for a season like that to be looked at as a disappointment.
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Re: ENOUGH! The Brett lawrie love has gone too far.

Postby Izenhart » Wed Mar 28, 2012 2:55 pm

why u hatin? the dude is legit.
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ENOUGH! The Brett lawrie love has gone too far.

Postby lastingsgriller » Wed Mar 28, 2012 3:18 pm

I really am not hatin on Lowry. Dude IS legit. From things I've heard, the hype has gone wayyyy overboard. People should be excited when he goes 18/25 this year, not disappointed.
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Re: ENOUGH! The Brett lawrie love has gone too far.

Postby germani40 » Wed Mar 28, 2012 3:22 pm

He is good but he is not a 30/30 guy like a lot of people are trying to make it seem. He might be one at some point in his career but this year no. Like you said he didnt even hit 30 homers with over 800 ABs in the minors hes not doing it in the majors. So I agree 100% that he is good but its going too far
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Re: ENOUGH! The Brett lawrie love has gone too far.

Postby jefferey13 » Wed Mar 28, 2012 3:31 pm

+1
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Re: ENOUGH! The Brett lawrie love has gone too far.

Postby jlm53089 » Wed Mar 28, 2012 3:34 pm

I agree, I have problems taking guys like this in the first 5 rounds. I am always looking for proven guys with more statistical history.
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Re: ENOUGH! The Brett lawrie love has gone too far.

Postby Mookie4ever » Wed Mar 28, 2012 3:36 pm

lastingsgriller wrote:Honestly.. He's good, he's got great upside. But, get this 30hr stuff out of your head. It's not going to happen.

He had 26 hrs in his last 846 minor league at-bats.

What makes you think he'll have 30 in 500 MLB at-bats? Is it because he had 9 in 43 games last year? Guess what, guys.. He was on fire. It happens. Small sample size is way overrating him right now. Last year he had a hr every 16.6 at-bats. That's Pujols-esque. Brett lawrie is not Albert Pujols, nor is he Ryan Braun, yet.

Stop overvaluing. Get 30/30 out of your head or you'll just be disappointed. Expect 18/25 and be ecstatic when you get it. I would hate for a season like that to be looked at as a disappointment.


Four people went 30/30 last year but nobody in 2010 and only Kinsler did it in 2009. So if people were predicting 30/30 that would be top 5, first round minimum. I don't see anyone taking Lawrie first round. His ADP on yahoo is 50.3. He's being drafted as the 8th 3rd baseman behind Sandoval, Zimm and Beltre but ahead of Youklis and Aram. You're paying a little for the upside but that's about right.

In a keeper you can draft him higher because of the upside but in a redraft, late 4th or early 5th round is about right for him.
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Re: ENOUGH! The Brett lawrie love has gone too far.

Postby ichirosan » Wed Mar 28, 2012 3:41 pm

The thing is, he got drafted earlier and earlier.

In my main league (12 man, 5x5 roto), which drafted last week, he went late in the 3rd round. Everything would have to break out right for you to turn a profit there.
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Re: ENOUGH! The Brett lawrie love has gone too far.

Postby Ender » Wed Mar 28, 2012 4:12 pm

I wouldn't expect him to last past pick 40 in most leagues and I've seen him go before pick 28 in a couple of leagues.


http://www.baseball-reference.com/play- ... able::none

Search that by OPS and then look at how like 75% of the pitchers he did well against are names you probably don't even recognize. Small samples are bad enough but a large portion of his sample was against September callup style players. He did some damage against some real pitchers as well mind you and I expect him to have a good season but when you draft him in the 3rd round he suddenly HAS to have a huge year and then you just have risk without much reward.
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Re: ENOUGH! The Brett lawrie love has gone too far.

Postby jfg » Wed Mar 28, 2012 7:28 pm

I don't think anybody is saying he's going to go 30/30, like Mookie said he'd be gone in the 1st if that was the case. That's just upside. But, I think he's got a great chance to go 20/20 and that's worth where he's going. But, I think the big reason Lawrie's stock rose in the past month is that people saw what 3rd basemen came after him on their lists.
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