lastingsgriller wrote:Honestly.. He's good, he's got great upside. But, get this 30hr stuff out of your head. It's not going to happen.
He had 26 hrs in his last 846 minor league at-bats.
What makes you think he'll have 30 in 500 MLB at-bats? Is it because he had 9 in 43 games last year? Guess what, guys.. He was on fire. It happens. Small sample size is way overrating him right now. Last year he had a hr every 16.6 at-bats. That's Pujols-esque. Brett lawrie is not Albert Pujols, nor is he Ryan Braun, yet.
Stop overvaluing. Get 30/30 out of your head or you'll just be disappointed. Expect 18/25 and be ecstatic when you get it. I would hate for a season like that to be looked at as a disappointment.
Four people went 30/30 last year but nobody in 2010 and only Kinsler did it in 2009. So if people were predicting 30/30 that would be top 5, first round minimum. I don't see anyone taking Lawrie first round. His ADP on yahoo is 50.3. He's being drafted as the 8th 3rd baseman behind Sandoval, Zimm and Beltre but ahead of Youklis and Aram. You're paying a little for the upside but that's about right.
In a keeper you can draft him higher because of the upside but in a redraft, late 4th or early 5th round is about right for him.