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ellsbury/doc for upton/lincecum???WHIR

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Re: ellsbury/doc for upton/lincecum???WHIR

Postby 49ersavior » Thu Mar 29, 2012 12:58 am

Even if you have Ellsbury slightly ahead of Upton and Doc slightly ahead of Lincecum, Ellsbury is 28 and Doc is 34. Upton is 24 and Lincecum is 27. Upton and Ellsbury are both MVP candidates, but Upton has a higher power ceiling and RBI potential with great speed. Although Ellsbury had a phenomenal season last year and should have won the MVP last year in my opinion, I can't see him ever repeating the #s he had last year where I can see Upton perennially exceeding them. As for Lincecum, everyone is discounting him and saying he is destined for injury because of his "windup". In 2010, Lincecum's velocity did drop some, but in 2011 he regained it. People look at Lincecum's record and assume with 13-14 that is now declining. He is a 2 time CY Young winner, went to the WS and pitched in the deciding game, and has had over 220ks the last 4 seasons. The only category he has legitimately declined in is K's with a career low of 220ks. That's a good year for Halladay. So back to the Wins, of 94 qualifying starting pitchers, Lincecum received the worst run support in all of baseball in 2011. Some of that is in part due to the fact that he faces opposing #1 pitchers, but also a lot of it is bad bad luck. The Giants offense isn't great this year, but I will go out on a limb and guarantee that it will be better than it was last year. Conversely, Doc's Phillies are aging and with Utley and Howard out of the lineup for who knows how long, I'm also guessing that the Phil's offense will be worse that it was last year. Compound the ballpark factor for both Doc and Tim and the fact that the NL East is now A LOT stronger, I'm going to take a second look at Tim and this trade. Considering you aren't planning on playing just one more year in this league, I'd take this trade, hell I'm also a Giants fan so I'd take this trade anyways.

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Re: ellsbury/doc for upton/lincecum???WHIR

Postby Wadderboiz » Thu Mar 29, 2012 10:13 am

This deal is essentially a wash for one year. Too often we look at trades and consider only the players explicitly involved in the deal, the problem with that is we don't consider the effect Player A has on Team A in the grand scheme of things.

Realistically if you have Lincecum instead of Halladay are your final overall team numbers going to be drastically affected by Halladay's 0.3 or 0.4 something better ERA, or will the extra 5-10 K's Lincecum gets be the deciding factor between winning and losing the league. More than likely not.

I look at this trade for 1 year as making a deal for the sake of making a deal. Upton will get a little better, Ellsbury's numbers won't quite be as good as last year, making it a wash essentially. Upton is younger but it's not as if Ellsbury is an aging veteran he's only 28 so it's not as if 2 years from now he'll be on the decline. And do you really think Upton in his prime will have a better line than : .321 AVG / 32 HR / 105 RBI / 119 R / 39 SB.

The only real advantage you have is if it is a keeper league I'd side with Lincecum and Upton based strictly on age and the ability keep them longer than 2 or 3 years.
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Re: ellsbury/doc for upton/lincecum???WHIR

Postby thatguysound » Thu Mar 29, 2012 10:29 am

Wadderboiz wrote:This deal is essentially a wash for one year. Too often we look at trades and consider only the players explicitly involved in the deal, the problem with that is we don't consider the effect Player A has on Team A in the grand scheme of things.

Realistically if you have Lincecum instead of Halladay are your final overall team numbers going to be drastically affected by Halladay's 0.3 or 0.4 something better ERA, or will the extra 5-10 K's Lincecum gets be the deciding factor between winning and losing the league. More than likely not.

I look at this trade for 1 year as making a deal for the sake of making a deal. Upton will get a little better, Ellsbury's numbers won't quite be as good as last year, making it a wash essentially. Upton is younger but it's not as if Ellsbury is an aging veteran he's only 28 so it's not as if 2 years from now he'll be on the decline. And do you really think Upton in his prime will have a better line than : .321 AVG / 32 HR / 105 RBI / 119 R / 39 SB.

The only real advantage you have is if it is a keeper league I'd side with Lincecum and Upton based strictly on age and the ability keep them longer than 2 or 3 years.


Agreed for the most part. I'm not convinced that its a wash this year. FWIW, I do believe that Upton will have a better line in 2012, not just moving forward. I see him as .295/.380/.575 with 40 HR, 115 RBI, 105 R, and 25 SB. And that's for a solid 5 year stretch, beginning this season. I don't see Ellsbury having a year like 2011 ever again, and think he probably falls back a bit this year - .300/.370/.475 with 25 HR, 95 RBI, 110 R, and 40 SB. Fantastic year - but not what I think Upton will be capable of.
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Re: ellsbury/doc for upton/lincecum???WHIR

Postby Wadderboiz » Thu Mar 29, 2012 11:34 am

thatguysound wrote:Agreed for the most part. I'm not convinced that its a wash this year. FWIW, I do believe that Upton will have a better line in 2012, not just moving forward. I see him as .295/.380/.575 with 40 HR, 115 RBI, 105 R, and 25 SB. And that's for a solid 5 year stretch, beginning this season. I don't see Ellsbury having a year like 2011 ever again, and think he probably falls back a bit this year - .300/.370/.475 with 25 HR, 95 RBI, 110 R, and 40 SB. Fantastic year - but not what I think Upton will be capable of.


I do like Upton's potential but 40 HR's out of his frame is a tad optimistic. And even conceding that your projections for both are almost equal;

Avg - Advantage Ellsbury
HR - Adv. Upton by 10-15
RBI - Adv. Upton by 10-15
SB - Adv. Ellbury 15+
R's - while you give the advantage to Upton, I have to contest given that Ellsbury will more than likely bat lead off in a better lineup, as opposed to Upton most likely hitting 3 or 4. All in all Upton hits for more power but Ells takes R's, SB's and AVG.
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Re: ellsbury/doc for upton/lincecum???WHIR

Postby HOOTIE » Thu Mar 29, 2012 11:39 am

You would never get Upton in my keeper leagues with this trade.
Just saying
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Re: ellsbury/doc for upton/lincecum???WHIR

Postby Wadderboiz » Thu Mar 29, 2012 11:51 am

HOOTIE wrote:You would never get Upton in my keeper leagues with this trade.
Just saying


Which is why I detest indefinite keeper leagues. The league I'm in is standard NL only auction $260. You can protect 2 minor leaguers at a time, and their salary is $5. Once any player is added to your active roster his contract is good for 3 years, prior to the start of the 3rd year you have the option to extend the contract for x amount of years, however his salary increases $5 for every year you extend him.

Example:
I selected Ryan Braun in 2007 as a minor leaguer, his salary is $5. He gets the call-up after about a week in the minors and his 3 year clock starts so I have him for 2007 and 2008 at $5. Prior to the 2009 season I opt to extend him for 3 years, controlling him for 2009, 10, 11 and 12 @ $20. At the end of this season he MUST go back in to the draft and I will cry for days. But it prevents a team from owning A. Pujols for 15 years, just because you can "keep" him. Just my opinion.
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