ellsbury/doc for upton/lincecum???WHIR

[thatguysound]

I don't think Ellsbury for Upton is an obvious reject. I do think the entire deal is.
Ellsbury beat Upton in every stat last year and I don't think that's something to downplay. So if I could agree they're even, but I can't see Halladay for Lincecum.

And I don't think all leagues have to have restrictions on keepers, just most leagues do.

I'm not downplaying it, but when you have one player coming off a career year where he was MILES better than any previous year, or another player, 4 years younger, who is steadily improving on a yearly basis... which one is more likely to repeat? Which one is more likely to improve?

Yes, Doc is better than Tim. But the OP has a solid enough rotation to survive the dropoff, and I think Upton makes up the difference over Ellsbury. I think there is a greater chance that Ellsbury reverts to the .798 OPS player with 60 steals than he has another .900+ season. That is still insanely valuable, but I believe Upton is going to be that much better than Ellsbury.

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one.

[joeyg2323]

I don't think Ellsbury for Upton is an obvious reject. I do think the entire deal is.
Ellsbury beat Upton in every stat last year and I don't think that's something to downplay. So if I could agree they're even, but I can't see Halladay for Lincecum.

And I don't think all leagues have to have restrictions on keepers, just most leagues do.

I'm not downplaying it, but when you have one player coming off a career year where he was MILES better than any previous year, or another player, 4 years younger, who is steadily improving on a yearly basis... which one is more likely to repeat? Which one is more likely to improve?

Yes, Doc is better than Tim. But the OP has a solid enough rotation to survive the dropoff, and I think Upton makes up the difference over Ellsbury. I think there is a greater chance that Ellsbury reverts to the .798 OPS player with 60 steals than he has another .900+ season. That is still insanely valuable, but I believe Upton is going to be that much better than Ellsbury.

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one.

i agree with you on upton, i think this year he is going to prove himself as an elite hitter and within the next few he will be the best hitter in baseball.

[nyr199435]

No way. Keep what you got.

[RyeWhiskey]

I think that in terms of value in a keeper league, that I'd take this deal (I'd be much more inclined to accept if you can get the pick upgrade). I like the upside play here and think that this deal will be a make-or-break for this season. But, hey, that's what trades are often about.

[teezy33]

I don't feel like I can really add anything new to the discussion here. This trade doesn't really do much to make you better for this season. I'd either reject it or counter and ask for more in return.

[ATLbraves]

I don't feel like I can really add anything new to the discussion here. This trade doesn't really do much to make you better for this season. I'd either reject it or counter and ask for more in return.

Completely agree.



Thanks for the help with mine.

[HOOTIE]

Since it's a keeper, i take the Upton side easily.
You get younger at OF and SP.
Upton is the best player to me, and Lincecum will still be pitching good, when Halladay has faded.

[Halo Homers]

I would take this deal.

I agree with the previous poster. Upton is the best player is the deal. I think Upton will challenge for in 2012 to become the #1 player in baseball. A .300-40-20 season with great counting stats would not shock me. Ellsbury is more a end of the 1st round guy, I don't think the power is sustainable, and even if it is he's batting 1st, so the RBI total won't be that great.

Holliday is better than Linceum, but because this is a keeper, Lincecum has better potential over the long haul. The only thing that worries me is will Lincecum stay injury free, the way he launches himself into every pitch. Of course Doc has a lot of innings on that arm too.

[Urban Cohorts]

Can someone explain to me why Lincecum is better than Doc in a keeper? Especially a league where QS are concerned?

Yeah, Lincecum is younger. I'll give you all that. But can someone please explain why his 3 year decline in K/9 and BB/9 (at a prime age) is nothing to be concerned about. He posted elite numbers, but if the decline keeps occurring, he won't be nearly as good. He should be pitching better with age, not worse.

And purely speculation here, but that throwing motion that Lince has screams "injury on the horizon" IMO.

[HOOTIE]

Halladay is better then Lincecum now, but for how long?
Halladay is 35. Do you expect Doc to be better in 3 years at age 38?
Lincecums K/9 drop is a concern, but it's still above 9.
The real deal breaker is getting a pre-peak Upton.