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ellsbury/doc for upton/lincecum???WHIR

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Re: ellsbury/doc for upton/lincecum???WHIR

Postby jefferey13 » Wed Mar 28, 2012 1:41 pm

thatguysound wrote:How does the rest of your rotation look?

Ellsbury isn't going to get much better - the only thing he has for sure over Upton is the SB. Upton is going to keep improving - and he has HR and RBI over Ellsbury. AVG and R are going to be about even. I have no problem with Ellsbury being the better player for this year, maybe. But in 2013? And 2014? And 2020? I doubt it.

Doc isn't going to get much better, which is good - he's phenomenal. But he's not >>> than Tim. He's > better. Tim struggled a bit, it's true, but still had a real good season last year. Even his big down year was better than most. In a keeper league, the difference between Doc and Tim is going to stay pretty close as Doc gets older. The difference between Ellsbury and Upton will only increase in Upton's favor.


I'd rather have players who are better than to take players who I hope will get better. And for the most part there is a restriction on keepers, and I don't see Ellsbury struggling in the next 3 years.
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Re: ellsbury/doc for upton/lincecum???WHIR

Postby sigriffey » Wed Mar 28, 2012 1:42 pm

Not a no-brainer reject necessarilly.

My questions:

- Do CGs count? If so, huge edge to Doc
- How is your speed vs. power? Ellsbury or Upton will be more or less valuable to you, respectively, based on that. Though both are great keepers and Upton esp given age and growth potential.
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Re: ellsbury/doc for upton/lincecum???WHIR

Postby thatguysound » Wed Mar 28, 2012 1:44 pm

joeyg2323 wrote:
thatguysound wrote:How does the rest of your rotation look?

Ellsbury isn't going to get much better - the only thing he has for sure over Upton is the SB. Upton is going to keep improving - and he has HR and RBI over Ellsbury. AVG and R are going to be about even. I have no problem with Ellsbury being the better player for this year, maybe. But in 2013? And 2014? And 2020? I doubt it.

Doc isn't going to get much better, which is good - he's phenomenal. But he's not >>> than Tim. He's > better. Tim struggled a bit, it's true, but still had a real good season last year. Even his big down year was better than most. In a keeper league, the difference between Doc and Tim is going to stay pretty close as Doc gets older. The difference between Ellsbury and Upton will only increase in Upton's favor.



SP- CC, Romero, Beachy, Feliz, Jurrjens (Teheren, banuelos, betances in the minors)
RP- kimbrel, wilson, bailey, guerra and venters


I like your 2-4. Feliz and Jurrjens are a little scary, but potentially good, so no complaints there. I think you can definitely win a league with a rotation headed by Tim and CC, and I absolutely believe, without a doubt, that this is the last time you will make the case for Ellsbury being better than Upton. Upton could take over the #1 overall player by the end of this season, and hold onto it for the next 5 years.
As of 8/4/13
C:Napoli 1B:Goldshmidt 2B:Kinsler, Gyorko SS:Tulo, Profar 3B:Longoria, Machado, Middlebrooks OF:Harper, J. Upton, AGon, R. Davis, Venable SP:Scherzer, Minor, Ryu, E.Santana, Beachy, Samardzja, J.Johnson (DL), T.Ross RP:Perez, Rodney, Farquar
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Re: ellsbury/doc for upton/lincecum???WHIR

Postby joeyg2323 » Wed Mar 28, 2012 1:47 pm

sigriffey wrote:Not a no-brainer reject necessarilly.

My questions:

- Do CGs count? If so, huge edge to Doc
- How is your speed vs. power? Ellsbury or Upton will be more or less valuable to you, respectively, based on that. Though both are great keepers and Upton esp given age and growth potential.


no CG games do not count

c-arenchiba
1b-texiera
2b-cano
3b-prado
ss- dee gordon
of- ellsbury, cruz, bourn, adam jones and cespedes

minors- christiam yelich, startling marte and anthony gose
"They give you a round bat and they throw you a round ball. And they tell you to hit it square."-Willie Stargell
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Re: ellsbury/doc for upton/lincecum???WHIR

Postby thatguysound » Wed Mar 28, 2012 1:55 pm

jefferey13 wrote:
thatguysound wrote:How does the rest of your rotation look?

Ellsbury isn't going to get much better - the only thing he has for sure over Upton is the SB. Upton is going to keep improving - and he has HR and RBI over Ellsbury. AVG and R are going to be about even. I have no problem with Ellsbury being the better player for this year, maybe. But in 2013? And 2014? And 2020? I doubt it.

Doc isn't going to get much better, which is good - he's phenomenal. But he's not >>> than Tim. He's > better. Tim struggled a bit, it's true, but still had a real good season last year. Even his big down year was better than most. In a keeper league, the difference between Doc and Tim is going to stay pretty close as Doc gets older. The difference between Ellsbury and Upton will only increase in Upton's favor.


I'd rather have players who are better than to take players who I hope will get better. And for the most part there is a restriction on keepers, and I don't see Ellsbury struggling in the next 3 years.


Who says there has to be a restriction on keepers?

OBP? edge to Upton. HR? Edge to Upton. RBI? Edge to Upton. SB? Edge to Ellsbury (although 20+ from Upton is nothing to sneeze at). R? even. H? even.

Last year was the first time that Ellsbury had an OPS over .800. Upton has already done it three times.

I don't see Ellsbury struggling, but he's going to be coming out of his prime years just as Upton is entering them. Like I said, you can make the argument right now that Ellsbury might have the better season than Upton. But this is the last time you can do that. And if he plays in a keeper league, all the more reason to consider the deal.

I'm not saying that it's a no brainer, and you obviously can't go wrong by keeping Doc and Ells. But it is by NO MEANS an obvious reject. I'd try to talk them into a deal that was more in my favor, of course - probably using a lot of the same arguments that you're using! - but at the end of the day, if the other manager wasn't going to budge, I would probably do that trade.
As of 8/4/13
C:Napoli 1B:Goldshmidt 2B:Kinsler, Gyorko SS:Tulo, Profar 3B:Longoria, Machado, Middlebrooks OF:Harper, J. Upton, AGon, R. Davis, Venable SP:Scherzer, Minor, Ryu, E.Santana, Beachy, Samardzja, J.Johnson (DL), T.Ross RP:Perez, Rodney, Farquar
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Re: ellsbury/doc for upton/lincecum???WHIR

Postby thatguysound » Wed Mar 28, 2012 1:57 pm

joeyg2323 wrote:
sigriffey wrote:Not a no-brainer reject necessarilly.

My questions:

- Do CGs count? If so, huge edge to Doc
- How is your speed vs. power? Ellsbury or Upton will be more or less valuable to you, respectively, based on that. Though both are great keepers and Upton esp given age and growth potential.


no CG games do not count

c-arenchiba
1b-texiera
2b-cano
3b-prado
ss- dee gordon
of- ellsbury, cruz, bourn, adam jones and cespedes

minors- christiam yelich, startling marte and anthony gose


WIth Bourn and Gordon on your team, I think you could handle the drop in steals. Not sure how much Gordon will hurt you in OBP, though. Same with Arrenciba - be ready to drop him quick.
As of 8/4/13
C:Napoli 1B:Goldshmidt 2B:Kinsler, Gyorko SS:Tulo, Profar 3B:Longoria, Machado, Middlebrooks OF:Harper, J. Upton, AGon, R. Davis, Venable SP:Scherzer, Minor, Ryu, E.Santana, Beachy, Samardzja, J.Johnson (DL), T.Ross RP:Perez, Rodney, Farquar
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Re: ellsbury/doc for upton/lincecum???WHIR

Postby jefferey13 » Wed Mar 28, 2012 2:02 pm

I don't think Ellsbury for Upton is an obvious reject. I do think the entire deal is.
Ellsbury beat Upton in every stat last year and I don't think that's something to downplay. So if I could agree they're even, but I can't see Halladay for Lincecum.

And I don't think all leagues have to have restrictions on keepers, just most leagues do.
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Re: ellsbury/doc for upton/lincecum???WHIR

Postby Quackman » Wed Mar 28, 2012 2:14 pm

Take the deal, especially if its keeper. Doc is amazing obviously,,every year i almost cant believe he doesnt get hurt. He just keeps going. In my mind im always skeptical (even if he proves me wrong every year) eventually though the injuries will come. For me id take the youth thats why its a good deal for you. There is less injury risk with upton and lincecum. Id say there is even more upside because of upton.
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Re: ellsbury/doc for upton/lincecum???WHIR

Postby joeyg2323 » Wed Mar 28, 2012 2:16 pm

Quackman wrote:Take the deal, especially if its keeper. Doc is amazing obviously,,every year i almost cant believe he doesnt get hurt. He just keeps going. In my mind im always skeptical (even if he proves me wrong every year) eventually though the injuries will come. For me id take the youth thats why its a good deal for you. There is less injury risk with upton and lincecum. Id say there is even more upside because of upton.



i countered with upton/Lincecum and a 2nd for DOC/Ellsbury and a 5th if he rejects i could always go back to the orginal
"They give you a round bat and they throw you a round ball. And they tell you to hit it square."-Willie Stargell
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Re: ellsbury/doc for upton/lincecum???WHIR

Postby goredsox » Wed Mar 28, 2012 2:18 pm

I like Ellsbury slightly more than Upton and Halladay a lot more than Lincecum. Ask for more.
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