Which pitcher?

[Wadderboiz]

If anyone gets demoted, my guess is the overrated Jurrjens.

Overrated? The 26 year old has had 2 seasons in the last 3 years with an ERA under 3, and has a career 3.39 ERA over 115 starts.

Even if Minor is penciled in as the #3 starter on the staff, if he struggles for any stretch of time Delgado, Teheran or Vizcaino are just waiting for an opportunity. I'd hardly consider Minor safe in the grand scheme of things.

[HOOTIE]

Jurrjens era was lucky due to babip and strand rate.
His career xFIP is 4.22.
Was 4.23 last year.
His K/9 has dropped down to barely 5.
If you want a 4.25 era pitcher with few K/s, then i guess he's ok.
I don't like him at all.

[kidsilk]

I like Minor then Chacin.

please help

viewtopic.php?t=442505

[Wadderboiz]

Jurrjens era was lucky due to babip and strand rate.
His career xFIP is 4.22.
Was 4.23 last year.
His K/9 has dropped down to barely 5.
If you want a 4.25 era pitcher with few K/s, then i guess he's ok.
I don't like him at all.

How do you extrapolate 4.25 ERA for a pitcher who has career 3.39 ERA, you're going to attribute an entire point in his ERA to luck?

[HOOTIE]

His career 7.4% hr/fb ratio isn't sustainable. 9-10 is average.
His career .280 babip isn't either imo.
Maybe he can be a 4 era guy, but just because he has a 3.40 career era, doesn't mean he will sustain that.
His K/9 is at a career low, his velocity dropped last year.
A guy who doesn't miss bats, will blow up if everything doesn't go right, (babip/strand rate, hr/fb ratio).

[Wadderboiz]

His career 7.4% hr/fb ratio isn't sustainable. 9-10 is average.
His career .280 babip isn't either imo.
Maybe he can be a 4 era guy, but just because he has a 3.40 career era, doesn't mean he will sustain that.
His K/9 is at a career low, his velocity dropped last year.
A guy who doesn't miss bats, will blow up if everything doesn't go right, (babip/strand rate, hr/fb ratio).

There are pitchers who sustain those; ratios T. Lincecum's HR/FB ratio is 7.4 over his career. You can look at those "luck" statistics and draw whatever conclusions you want. As for his velocity numbers, do you take into account injuries that cause him to miss starts are probably affecting his velocity. When healthy he's proven he can win games and post a solid ERA, heck last year he proved even when he wasn't healthy he could do it.

Player A ... .281 BAIP ... 7.2% HR/FB ratio ... average velocity app. 85.

Those are Greg Maddux's career stats, he sustained ratios just fine. You can call them "luck" statistics if you will, but until I see that sustainability stat, I don't see a 4.00+ ERA out of Jurrjens. IMO.

[HOOTIE]

All i can say is enjoy Jurrjens.
I say his era is over 4 this year.
Our little wager.

[Anicholsnj]

I would rather own minor than niese/chacin. I think it's a lot easier for you to pick minor than it would be to pick between niese/chacin. So take minor and be glad you don't have to!!