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More Keeper Adventures. WHIRRRRRR

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More Keeper Adventures. WHIRRRRRR

Postby letter18 » Mon Mar 26, 2012 3:32 pm

Alright folks, keeper league 2 of 2 draft last night, this one way deeper so I hope I did OK.

league settings:

12 man league, 9 keepers each: 6 Bats 2 SP and 1 RP. You may keep up to 5 players that were kept the year before. Sort of a quirky roster, 4 OF spots plus an additional IF spot. Standard cats + OPS for hitters.


C. Miguel Montero
1B Miguel Cabrera (K, 2011)
2b Jemile Weeks (K 2012)
3b Aramis ramirez (K 2011)
SS JJ Hardy (K 2012)
IF Paul Konkero (K 2012)
OF Shin-soo Choo
Of Brett Gardner
OF Mark Trumbo
OF Nick Markakis
Util David Ortiz (K, 2011)
Util Kelly Johnson
Bn Brian Lahair
Bn Brandon Belt
Bn Brett Morel


SP Cliff Lee (K 2011)
SP Madison Bumgardner(K 2011)
P Hiroki Kuroda
P doug fister
P Brandon Mccarthy
RP Javy Guerra
RP Rafael Betancourt (K 2012)
Bn Ricky Nolasco
Bn Aaron Harang
Bn Ryan vogelsong

Okay, so this is a team I took over in a league with some strange things going for it IMO. I like Jemille weeks, but I sort of kept him out of necessity, it was either that, or drop a previous keeper which I wasn't keen on doing. What do you guys think, my first time drafting a league this deep so if I missed somewhat so be it. WHIRRRRR
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Re: More Keeper Adventures. WHIRRRRRR

Postby AmazinSiddFinch » Mon Mar 26, 2012 4:34 pm

Not a huge fan of this team. Like Miggy obviously, but not much other than that. Konerko is bound to slow down at some point. Choo is coming off an injury and the rest of your OF is weak. I'm personally not a fan of any SP but Cliff. Bumgarner I'm projecting for a fall off from last year. Consider it soph slump.

Thanks for looking at mine.
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Re: More Keeper Adventures. WHIRRRRRR

Postby letter18 » Mon Mar 26, 2012 4:48 pm

AmazinSiddFinch wrote:Not a huge fan of this team. Like Miggy obviously, but not much other than that. Konerko is bound to slow down at some point. Choo is coming off an injury and the rest of your OF is weak. I'm personally not a fan of any SP but Cliff. Bumgarner I'm projecting for a fall off from last year. Consider it soph slump.

Thanks for looking at mine.


well thanks for looking, but I must say I'm not sure about your analysis. What are you basing your advice on? I agree Konkerko is up there in age a bit, but I'm not sure how you can say he will just fall of a cliff when he hasn't even shown any signs of regression yet. Choo is coming off an injury, yes, but is healthy now and was one of the top OF in baseball in 2008-2010. Bumgardner is 22, has great peripherals and pitches in one of the most hitter pitcher friendly parks, in one of the weakest divisions, in baseball.

My apologies if this comes off as hostile, it just seems as if you didn't really give much thought to your analysis
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Re: More Keeper Adventures. WHIRRRRRR

Postby Micaelis » Tue Mar 27, 2012 1:15 am

I like Miggy, Konerko, Choo, Markakis, Lee, and Bumgarner as keepers. RP is whatever, and you're left with two more bat positions to target. Can keep one or two of your guys as a last resort, but think of packaging trades to target another relatively cheap high upside player to build your core around. That way, you're team will be positioned to compete for years to come.
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Re: More Keeper Adventures. WHIRRRRRR

Postby thatguysound » Tue Mar 27, 2012 11:43 am

Ok, where to begin... before I even get into the players, you say that this is a team that you "took over", which means you were probably somewhat limited in what you were able to do with the team. So I hope you won't take it too personally that I (like the other posters) don't like the team overall. I can't say its the worst team in your league without seeing the other rosters, but it doesn't seem like a championship contender to me at this point.

The TL:DR version:

I think the problem is that your team lacks sex appeal. I like Miggy, Lee, and Bumgarner as sure things. After that, though, what top-flight performers can you really count on? Practically speaking, there aren't as many sure things as I personally would feel comfortable with. Sure, if everything breaks right and all your players have career seasons, you'll win the league and I will be the fool. But if you look at the odds, you're facing an uphill battle. You've put together a team that is too close to its ceiling, which means you really have nowhere to go but down. I'm not trying to be dismissive, and I'm aware that you might not have had as much control over putting this team together as you'd like, but that's my overall take at this point. In all, I count only 1 top 20 player (Miggy), and 1-2 top 50 players (Lee and Bumgardner) that I feel confident in. Looking down the line, I see only 5 other players that could be good keepers for 2013 (Choo, Trumbo, Weeks, Morel, and Belt). That's why it seems like you've got some work to do. But this is all, in the words of The Dude, just like, my opinion, man.

The breakdown:

C: No complaints with M. Montero, as long as you picked him up in the later rounds. Might just be my own drafting strategy, but unless a C is producing on a Piazza-esque level, I wait until the high teens or later to draft my catcher. Just my own philosophy. No quibble with the player.

1B: Miggy is gold. Platinum, even. Konerko could take a step back, but even still, should be a solid enough performer. Don't be surprised, though, if you're playing Miggy at 3B and Konerko or Trumbo at 1B before too long. I'm not too high on Aramis Ramirez this year (see 3B below).

2B: Weeks is young, and MIGHT take the next step this year. Then again, he could also be a couple years away. I like Kelly Johnson as a late round flier, but that only works if the rest of your team can support it. As it is right now, I'm not sure it can.

3B: This is my single biggest issue with your team. Ramirez is going to a park where he historically doesn't hit as well, and unless Gamel finally breaks out, that lineup is going to miss Prince in a big way. He's also aging, which is likely to catch up to him now that he doesn't play in a home park that masks his weaknesses. I think Ramirez is no better than the #7 or #8 3B if he has a really good year, and there's a very real chance he's not even top 10 at 3B. I'm really not trying to be harsh, but I'm betting there were 4-5 players on your 2011 roster that would have made a better keeper in my mind.

SS: Hardy could be solid at best. At worst, he could be a dud. Even if he hits for power, he's a 2 or 3 category player at best, and a major drain on the other categories if you have him starting every day.

OF: Very similar players across the board. If Choo comes back healthy, then he can give you the absolute definition of well-rounded performance. I like his chances, but you can't bank on it yet - and you've made him your number one OF. Which could be just fine if your infield was strong enough to compensate for it. Unfortunately, IMO, it's not right now. After that, the OF I like best is Trumbo, although I suspect his biggest value is going to come at one of the corner IF slots when Ramirez isn't justifying his playing time and you shift Miggy to 3B. Gardner and Markakis are perfectly good 3rd and 4th OF's, but there's nothing in their history to make you think they could be anything MORE than that.

UT/Bench: Ortiz probably has one more good season in him, but it still won't be as good as last year. I like Belt's potential, but he plays in a tough hitter's park, is still very young, and he played in the PCL in the AAA. Hitters who tear it up in the PCL typically don't do the same in the bigs.

SP: No issues with Lee or Bumgarner. Bumgarner probably pitches like a 1-2 this year, but it would have been better to slot him as your 3 and let him out perform his rotation slot. Kuroda is solid, but I like him a lot better as a 4 or 5. He has an injury history, and he's moving to the AL. Better for wins, perhaps, but ERA and WHIP probably take a hit. Fister should be solid as well, but considering how well he pitched for Detroit last year, its hard to imagine him being able to pitch BETTER. So you have yet another player who, IMO, is unlikely to improve upon last year. And in Fister and McCarthy, you have two guys who have less than stellar K rates, which will hurt you. Nolasco is constantly teasing - maybe he figures it out this year, maybe he doesn't (History suggests he won't). Harang is older, an injury risk, and another pitcher with limited K ability. Vogelsong is 34 years old, and was statistically lucky last year. The odds are he drops back a bit as well.

RP: I like Betancourt and Guerra as closers, although personally I'd feel more comfortable with a third closer on my roster. You'll have to keep a watchful eye on the closer situations, because Guerra seems 50-50 at best to keep the job all season, and Betancourt is older - make sure you're ready to pounce if anything happens. At the very least, try to pick up Jensen as insurance if he's still available. Even if he doesn't take over the closer job, you'll be getting crazy K totals, which you'll need to help offset the lack of K's from your overall rotation.
As of 8/4/13
C:Napoli 1B:Goldshmidt 2B:Kinsler, Gyorko SS:Tulo, Profar 3B:Longoria, Machado, Middlebrooks OF:Harper, J. Upton, AGon, R. Davis, Venable SP:Scherzer, Minor, Ryu, E.Santana, Beachy, Samardzja, J.Johnson (DL), T.Ross RP:Perez, Rodney, Farquar
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Re: More Keeper Adventures. WHIRRRRRR

Postby letter18 » Tue Mar 27, 2012 1:20 pm

thatguysound wrote:Ok, where to begin... before I even get into the players, you say that this is a team that you "took over", which means you were probably somewhat limited in what you were able to do with the team. So I hope you won't take it too personally that I (like the other posters) don't like the team overall. I can't say its the worst team in your league without seeing the other rosters, but it doesn't seem like a championship contender to me at this point.

The TL:DR version:

I think the problem is that your team lacks sex appeal. I like Miggy, Lee, and Bumgarner as sure things. After that, though, what top-flight performers can you really count on? Practically speaking, there aren't as many sure things as I personally would feel comfortable with. Sure, if everything breaks right and all your players have career seasons, you'll win the league and I will be the fool. But if you look at the odds, you're facing an uphill battle. You've put together a team that is too close to its ceiling, which means you really have nowhere to go but down. I'm not trying to be dismissive, and I'm aware that you might not have had as much control over putting this team together as you'd like, but that's my overall take at this point. In all, I count only 1 top 20 player (Miggy), and 1-2 top 50 players (Lee and Bumgardner) that I feel confident in. Looking down the line, I see only 5 other players that could be good keepers for 2013 (Choo, Trumbo, Weeks, Morel, and Belt). That's why it seems like you've got some work to do. But this is all, in the words of The Dude, just like, my opinion, man.

The breakdown:

C: No complaints with M. Montero, as long as you picked him up in the later rounds. Might just be my own drafting strategy, but unless a C is producing on a Piazza-esque level, I wait until the high teens or later to draft my catcher. Just my own philosophy. No quibble with the player.

1B: Miggy is gold. Platinum, even. Konerko could take a step back, but even still, should be a solid enough performer. Don't be surprised, though, if you're playing Miggy at 3B and Konerko or Trumbo at 1B before too long. I'm not too high on Aramis Ramirez this year (see 3B below).

2B: Weeks is young, and MIGHT take the next step this year. Then again, he could also be a couple years away. I like Kelly Johnson as a late round flier, but that only works if the rest of your team can support it. As it is right now, I'm not sure it can.

3B: This is my single biggest issue with your team. Ramirez is going to a park where he historically doesn't hit as well, and unless Gamel finally breaks out, that lineup is going to miss Prince in a big way. He's also aging, which is likely to catch up to him now that he doesn't play in a home park that masks his weaknesses. I think Ramirez is no better than the #7 or #8 3B if he has a really good year, and there's a very real chance he's not even top 10 at 3B. I'm really not trying to be harsh, but I'm betting there were 4-5 players on your 2011 roster that would have made a better keeper in my mind.

SS: Hardy could be solid at best. At worst, he could be a dud. Even if he hits for power, he's a 2 or 3 category player at best, and a major drain on the other categories if you have him starting every day.

OF: Very similar players across the board. If Choo comes back healthy, then he can give you the absolute definition of well-rounded performance. I like his chances, but you can't bank on it yet - and you've made him your number one OF. Which could be just fine if your infield was strong enough to compensate for it. Unfortunately, IMO, it's not right now. After that, the OF I like best is Trumbo, although I suspect his biggest value is going to come at one of the corner IF slots when Ramirez isn't justifying his playing time and you shift Miggy to 3B. Gardner and Markakis are perfectly good 3rd and 4th OF's, but there's nothing in their history to make you think they could be anything MORE than that.

UT/Bench: Ortiz probably has one more good season in him, but it still won't be as good as last year. I like Belt's potential, but he plays in a tough hitter's park, is still very young, and he played in the PCL in the AAA. Hitters who tear it up in the PCL typically don't do the same in the bigs.

SP: No issues with Lee or Bumgarner. Bumgarner probably pitches like a 1-2 this year, but it would have been better to slot him as your 3 and let him out perform his rotation slot. Kuroda is solid, but I like him a lot better as a 4 or 5. He has an injury history, and he's moving to the AL. Better for wins, perhaps, but ERA and WHIP probably take a hit. Fister should be solid as well, but considering how well he pitched for Detroit last year, its hard to imagine him being able to pitch BETTER. So you have yet another player who, IMO, is unlikely to improve upon last year. And in Fister and McCarthy, you have two guys who have less than stellar K rates, which will hurt you. Nolasco is constantly teasing - maybe he figures it out this year, maybe he doesn't (History suggests he won't). Harang is older, an injury risk, and another pitcher with limited K ability. Vogelsong is 34 years old, and was statistically lucky last year. The odds are he drops back a bit as well.

RP: I like Betancourt and Guerra as closers, although personally I'd feel more comfortable with a third closer on my roster. You'll have to keep a watchful eye on the closer situations, because Guerra seems 50-50 at best to keep the job all season, and Betancourt is older - make sure you're ready to pounce if anything happens. At the very least, try to pick up Jensen as insurance if he's still available. Even if he doesn't take over the closer job, you'll be getting crazy K totals, which you'll need to help offset the lack of K's from your overall rotation.


Thank you so much for taking the time to break all that down, I appreciate it. I agree with you tat, beyond a few keepers, the team is without sex appeal. I don't really seeing that being a problem though, as I feel like I have a collection of good-put perhaps not all great, players. It is also true that I have quite a bit of age up here more than I would like. But as you noted, there wasn't a ton that I could do about that... the perils of taking over a team. I understand your hesitation about Aramis,however I consider his move a blessing, not a curse, as Miller Park is a better park to hit in and the lineup around him will be better (even without prince) for HR and runs scored.

I can't ague with you much about the pitchers... except to say that I am a sucker for nolasco in the late rounds due to his sexy k/bb rate, and last year he lowered his HRrate a ton, so hopefully he's finding it.

Overall, I think some of your concerns are valid, but I'm not as worried as some about guys like Choo having a bounceback, for example. Also, its worth pointing out that the draft technically started at pick 108, so Choo was actually quite a bargain from that perspective. In any event, thanks for taking the time, let me know if you want me to check anything out for you.
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Re: More Keeper Adventures. WHIRRRRRR

Postby thatguysound » Tue Mar 27, 2012 1:43 pm

letter18 wrote:
Thank you so much for taking the time to break all that down, I appreciate it. I agree with you tat, beyond a few keepers, the team is without sex appeal. I don't really seeing that being a problem though, as I feel like I have a collection of good-put perhaps not all great, players. It is also true that I have quite a bit of age up here more than I would like. But as you noted, there wasn't a ton that I could do about that... the perils of taking over a team. I understand your hesitation about Aramis,however I consider his move a blessing, not a curse, as Miller Park is a better park to hit in and the lineup around him will be better (even without prince) for HR and runs scored.

I can't ague with you much about the pitchers... except to say that I am a sucker for nolasco in the late rounds due to his sexy k/bb rate, and last year he lowered his HRrate a ton, so hopefully he's finding it.

Overall, I think some of your concerns are valid, but I'm not as worried as some about guys like Choo having a bounceback, for example. Also, its worth pointing out that the draft technically started at pick 108, so Choo was actually quite a bargain from that perspective. In any event, thanks for taking the time, let me know if you want me to check anything out for you.



You and I will simply agree to disagree on Aramis Ramirez. For your sake, I hope you're right. :-)

As you yourself said, "I feel like I have a collection of good-but perhaps not all great, players." I couldn't agree more - the problem is that "good but not great" rarely wins a fantasy league. So the real question you need to answer is this: Are you trying to win this year, or are you in rebuilding mode? How you answer that should shape how you approach the season.

My link is in my sig.
As of 8/4/13
C:Napoli 1B:Goldshmidt 2B:Kinsler, Gyorko SS:Tulo, Profar 3B:Longoria, Machado, Middlebrooks OF:Harper, J. Upton, AGon, R. Davis, Venable SP:Scherzer, Minor, Ryu, E.Santana, Beachy, Samardzja, J.Johnson (DL), T.Ross RP:Perez, Rodney, Farquar
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Re: More Keeper Adventures. WHIRRRRRR

Postby letter18 » Tue Mar 27, 2012 2:59 pm

thatguysound wrote:
letter18 wrote:
Thank you so much for taking the time to break all that down, I appreciate it. I agree with you tat, beyond a few keepers, the team is without sex appeal. I don't really seeing that being a problem though, as I feel like I have a collection of good-put perhaps not all great, players. It is also true that I have quite a bit of age up here more than I would like. But as you noted, there wasn't a ton that I could do about that... the perils of taking over a team. I understand your hesitation about Aramis,however I consider his move a blessing, not a curse, as Miller Park is a better park to hit in and the lineup around him will be better (even without prince) for HR and runs scored.

I can't ague with you much about the pitchers... except to say that I am a sucker for nolasco in the late rounds due to his sexy k/bb rate, and last year he lowered his HRrate a ton, so hopefully he's finding it.

Overall, I think some of your concerns are valid, but I'm not as worried as some about guys like Choo having a bounceback, for example. Also, its worth pointing out that the draft technically started at pick 108, so Choo was actually quite a bargain from that perspective. In any event, thanks for taking the time, let me know if you want me to check anything out for you.



You and I will simply agree to disagree on Aramis Ramirez. For your sake, I hope you're right. :-)

As you yourself said, "I feel like I have a collection of good-but perhaps not all great, players." I couldn't agree more - the problem is that "good but not great" rarely wins a fantasy league. So the real question you need to answer is this: Are you trying to win this year, or are you in rebuilding mode? How you answer that should shape how you approach the season.

My link is in my sig.


Well, When I say "good" I mean good enough, but in any event this is a deep league. While in a vacuum this team may not look that great, in context I think its strong enough.

Will give you insight on your team soon :)
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