16-team Keeper league (6 keepers), H2H 6x6 categories. I have the 3rd and 19th overall picks, but don't have a pick in the 3rd round.
It sounds like Yu Darvish is going #1 and Mike Napoli is going #2. I think I've set my sights on James Shields with my first pick (3rd overall) as my team needs pitching and needs keepers for future season, and Shields seems like the guy most likely to be a potential keeper going forward.
But now my question is, who do I target should the 2 picks anticipated before me not go as planned and/or Shields get taken before my pick?
In terms of my needs, I kind of feel like my top 2 players would be Napoli (best bat available), Shields (best arm available)... but who is #3? Would it be Shane Victorino snce CF is so shallow and he's really the only potential top-end option at that postion (my team is already well-balanced with SB, I don't want a CF with gives me only SB)? Or Logan Morrison in LF for his potential to turn into the real deal. Could I maybe get him with my 2nd round pick though? Would it be Ian Kennedy, Ricky Romero or Brandon Beachy... all solid SP who probably won't be around at my 2nd round pick? Would it be Cudduyer with his position flexibility... although I can't realistically see taking him with the 3rd pick?
And perhaps most importantly, if both Shields and Napoli fall to me at #3, should I still go with Shields giving my need for pitching? Napoli's the only top C left, but I'd probably be comfortable with a lesser player at C.
Here is a list of players that are available by position, followed by my keepers/openings.
Available Players C- Napoli 1B – Napoli, Cudduyer, Kendrick, Berkman, Goldschmidt, Butler, Reynolds 2B – Cudduyer, Utley, Kendrick, Ackley 3B - Reynolds SS – As. Cabrera, D. Gordon, Jeter LF – Crawford, Kendrick, Berkman, Logan Morrison CF – Victorino, Stubbs, Chris Young RF – Choo, Cudduyer, Berkman SP – James Sheilds, Ian Kennedy, Brandon Beachy, Ricky Romero, Gio Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Michael Pineda, Jordan Zimmermann, Chris Carpenter, Yu Darvish
My Current Roster C – 1B – Ike Davis 2B – Dustin Pedroia 3B – Brett Lawrie SS – Hanley Ramirez LF – CF – RF – Carlos Beltran UTIL –
My first take would be Napoli, Victorino, Kennedy. But it's hard to leave Beachy off that list. I wouldn't blame you for replacing either Victorino or Kennedy with him.
So Napoli is at the top of every list so far, which was to be expected. But giving my teams desperate need for pitching do I still take him if he falls to me at #3 or do I go with a pitcher as my greatest need?
Also, 2 of the 3 responses so far have actually listed Beachy ahead of Shields. What is the reason for this? I like both of them but I was of the mindset of Shields first if for no other reason that he's more of a veteran but still young enough that he should have many more good years in him and that he's a proven workhorse with 200+ innings and 34 starts every year... I know I can count on that from him. I also love Beachy's upside, but worry a bit about a sophomore slump and that he's already missed time with injury last season. Now I'm really thinking about the order of these two guys even more, if anyone else wild like to comment?
First...."Workhouse" isn't necessarily a compliment. If someone is giving you 200 innings of 4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, is that really a good thing?
I'd put Beachy ahead of Shields as well, I think Shields is in line for a significant regression. His peripheral stats say he was pitching over his head last year. Since this is a keeper league, go with the upside of Beachy.
That said, I doubt I'd take a pitcher at all in your spot. You aren't as desperate as you think you are. Of the 9 pitchers you listed (not counting Carpenter for injury reasons), I'd guess at least one of them will be there with your 19th pick.
Since I figure them all to be in roughly the same tier, or at least close enough to each other not to matter all that much, grab a bat with the #3 pick and take whichever of those SP is left at #19.
Napoli, Choo, Victorino. Whichever of them falls to you, take him. (I know Choo is an RF, but you do have a Util spot to fill anyway. Better to put a strong bat in there instead of over-reaching for someone else like Morrison simply to fill a position.)
Beeblebrox wrote:First...."Workhouse" isn't necessarily a compliment. If someone is giving you 200 innings of 4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, is that really a good thing?
Shields has been unlucky his career. His career xFIP is 3.66. Compare to Jered Weaver, the luckiest SP around, career era 3.31, career xFIP of 4.06. If you really want a SP, Shields is right with Beachy. I would take a bat, and chance one of those SP is there at pick 19.
Smells Like Teen Spirit
HOOTIE
Hall of Fame Hero
Posts: 14815
(Past Year: 551)
Joined: 12 Jan 2003
Bases this season: 4,236
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Pearl Jam country, right next door to Nirvana, Soundgarden, and Alice in Chains.
Beeblebrox wrote:First...."Workhouse" isn't necessarily a compliment. If someone is giving you 200 innings of 4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, is that really a good thing?
Shields has been unlucky his career. His career xFIP is 3.66. Compare to Jered Weaver, the luckiest SP around, career era 3.31, career xFIP of 4.06. If you really want a SP, Shields is right with Beachy. I would take a bat, and chance one of those SP is there at pick 19.
I agree with the above. My order would be: Napoli Crawford Shoo Shields
Note that I had Beachy on my squad last year and he was awesome. Just like people say Shields might regress, the same can be said for Beachy. Also keeping in mind that Beachy very well might have an innings limit.
Beeblebrox wrote:First...."Workhouse" isn't necessarily a compliment. If someone is giving you 200 innings of 4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, is that really a good thing?
Shields has been unlucky his career. His career xFIP is 3.66. Compare to Jered Weaver, the luckiest SP around, career era 3.31, career xFIP of 4.06. If you really want a SP, Shields is right with Beachy. I would take a bat, and chance one of those SP is there at pick 19.
Shields had some luck last year -- babip 40 points lower than his career numbers, strand rate of 80%. And his hr rate is consistently a little high (just as Weaver's is consistently low).
xFIP is a nice stat, but some pitchers do under- or over-perform it consistently. After 1200 career innings, I'm willing to guess that xFIP just isn't a spot on measure for Shields.
On Beachy vs Shields, thinking it over, they're closer than I thought initially. I like Beachy's numbers a lot better, but injury risk + possible shutdown before the fantasy playoffs makes them about even.
Cafe Home
Fantasy Football
Fantasy Basketball
Fantasy Hockey
by Knights » Fri Mar 23, 2012 9:46 pm 
