I'm in a head to head league, 5x5 categories plus OPS. I don't generally even roster any bench guys on offense, but with a couple of injury risks (Jeter and Arod) I picked up Aviles due to his multiple eligibility so i can plug him in on off days and if either guy goes down.
My question is on my other spot. I grabbed Willingham in round 25 just because I couldn't resist a 29 HR guy in an OPS league. I can also plug him in for Beltran, Choo, or Werth if they either falter or are hurt. I've been thinking lately, though, that Kubel might be a better option. He's younger and going from Target Field to Chase. He should have a better average and was hurt last year......
Who would you prefer based on what I have already?
C Matt Wieters (Bal - C) 1B Joey Votto (Cin - 1B) 2B Dan Uggla (Atl - 2B) 3B Alex Rodriguez (NYY - 3B) SS Derek Jeter (NYY - SS) OF Ryan Braun (Mil - OF) OF Jayson Werth (Was - OF) OF Carlos Beltran (StL - OF) Util Paul Konerko (CWS - 1B) Util Shin-Soo Choo (Cle - OF) BN Josh Willingham (Min - OF) BN Mike Aviles (Bos - 2B,3B,SS)
SP Cliff Lee (Phi - SP) 2012 SP Yu Darvish (Tex - SP) SP Ubaldo Jimenez (Cle - SP) RP Brandon League (Sea - RP) RP Frank Francisco (NYM - RP) RP Matt Capps (Min - RP) P Clay Buchholz (Bos - SP) P Sean Marshall (Cin - RP) P Johan Santana (NYM - SP) BN Doug Fister (Det - SP) BN Wandy Rodriguez (Hou - SP) BN Colby Lewis (Tex - SP) BN
That's the main thing that gets me...is that he was in Oakland. Plus the average was his lowest in several years. His OPS has always been around .850 and that's with less home runs. If he can get the average and on base back up, and maintain the power...he'll be very useful to plug in.
But Kubel also intrigues me because his drop off came the same exact year they moved to Target field. Now in Chase, I feel he'll have something to prove. I think he is the better all around hitter of the two, just with less power, but that might equalize with the home parks.
The main question is will Kubel get regular PT, with Parra in the mix, but then again, i'm not relying on him as an everyday option. He's just there to fill in the OF or UTIL on off days, or due to injury...or of course if he gets hot or has a resurgent type of year.
I'm still a bit torn, even with the responses so far It certainly isn't a make or break kind of pickup (or keeping the Hammer), but I'd hate to sleep on Kubel and see him get picked up and hit .280/30/100 on me. My other thought is who is likely to have a 1st half surge that will allow me to use them as trade bait at the deadline to fill other needs. Since we're in a keeper league, I get the feeling Kubel might draw more interest if he blows up and might be considered a keeper by someone (he wouldn't be to me).
FWIW, I still see Kubel giving up some AB's to Parra. That guy is a terrific defensive player. I see Kubel rebounding a bit this season, but I still prefer Hammer.
Josh may be the right pick, but those hr park factors, are what sway me. Josh is leaving Oakland, a 91 hr index for RHB, to Target, a 83 hr index for RHB. That means Target Field), reduces hrs by 17% for RHB. Kubel is leaving Target, 68 hr index for LHB, to AZ, 104 index for LHB.
ZIPS has them close. Josh 20 hrs .247 Kubel 21 hrs .277
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How much does lineup play a role? Kubel will presumably be in a much better lineup as well. Like I said, even if Kubel loses AB's, he isn't an everyday option for me....I'm looking for the best upside play I suppose.
There will likely end up with very similar numbers if healthy I suppose.
I think lineup makes a difference, and I believe lineup protection is a real thing, even though many will argue it isn't. Good lineup means better pitches, more opportunities for RBI's, and more AB's.
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by jonance » Wed Mar 21, 2012 12:32 pm 
It certainly isn't a make or break kind of pickup (or keeping the Hammer), but I'd hate to sleep on Kubel and see him get picked up and hit .280/30/100 on me. My other thought is who is likely to have a 1st half surge that will allow me to use them as trade bait at the deadline to fill other needs. Since we're in a keeper league, I get the feeling Kubel might draw more interest if he blows up and might be considered a keeper by someone (he wouldn't be to me). 
