Well, the folks at Vegas who spend quite a bit more resources and time in predicting what is likely going to happen had the Nats as the fourth best team on their own division. The lines were Phils -300, Atl +400, Mia +450 and Wash +600 so yea I don't think a lot of people cashed in on that +600 and if you're not projected to even be in the top 2 of your division is really hard to project for yourself being in to win the world series and worry too much with Strasburg at the beginning of the year.
Yeah I suppose they should have sat on their hands and got rid of big contracts this offseason. There is no chance of overtaking the Phillies.
I see what you're saying, but it doesn't matter if you finish in third place if you're the third best team in the league and the playoff format allows for you to advance. Coming into this year, all we heard about was how good AND deep the NL East was. Personally I would have put the Nats above the Fish, there's just something about Lego teams I don't like. I would have predicted third place, but that doesn't mean I don't think they had a possible 100 win season in them. Once again we go back to contingencies vs. most likely scenario. Nobody in the AL East not named NYY or Boston mails it in every offseason. They still make preparations to win lots of baseball games unless they're rebuilding.
jorgesca wrote:Well, the folks at Vegas who spend quite a bit more resources and time in predicting what is likely going to happen had the Nats as the fourth best team on their own division. The lines were Phils -300, Atl +400, Mia +450 and Wash +600 so yea I don't think a lot of people cashed in on that +600 and if you're not projected to even be in the top 2 of your division is really hard to project for yourself being in to win the world series and worry too much with Strasburg at the beginning of the year.
Why some are struggling so mightily to see this is beyond me. Like the Phillies weren't projected to win 90+ Games, with Atlanta right behind them, and the potential for Miami to be markedly better with their signings. Washington was nothing but an afterthought, and they can attribute much of their success this season and playoff aspirations to the horrible play of the Phils and Marlins. To refuse to even recognize this, or pretend that Washington was rich with playoff aspirations and ripe for breakout, as the sentiment in February/March, is just nonsensical. This is without even taking into account the entire premise set forth by GF about Strasburg being started late, Washington potentially missing the playoffs, and them being forced into another 180 IP limit next season, that they've set forth, starting the cycle all over again. They've got a guy set to throw 200 IP per season, health willing, for the next decade. If you want to argue something, argue that the 180 IP limit is stupid to begin with, not the way in which it was handled. Pretending that Washington should have planned to have this success this year in the Spring is nothing but betting after you've already seen what cards everybody is holding. I still don't know where you all were in March, but kudos on cleaning up on that +600 division bet. Wish I could've had the same foresight.
bigh0rt wrote:If you want to argue something, argue that the 180 IP limit is stupid to begin with, not the way in which it was handled.
I think it's fair to argue against both. I don't think the limit makes any sense, but considering that they do, it makes sense to start him later. If they make the playoffs - even if they only had a remote chance at the beginning of the year,a nd with 2 wild card spots they had more than a remote chance - they have the best pitcher in baseball available to them (despite the injury it was widely assumed he was the one of, if not the best). If they don't make the playoffs, he only pitches 160 innings. More than enough to be able to throw a full season next year. There's no downside. People give them a pass for this because it's conventional to shut a guy down a month before the season ends. They did it with Zimmermann last year and it didn't come back to bite them, so nobody cared. It's not conventional to start him a month after the season begins. Logic doesn't matter. What matters is taking the path most often traveled so you can avoid criticism. Doesn't matter to me very much, it's not my team after all. It'd be nice to see the best pitcher in baseball throwing when the games matter the most, but there will be 9 other teams to watch.
GiantsFan14 wrote: before the season, making decisions that would cost the team regular season wins based on an expectation of coasting into the playoffs would have been seen as incompetency
benb18a wrote:No it's not the end, because management made a move that WILL cost them wins in the playoffs. /thread
and this is exactly why we say that you're taking a results oriented approach
And that is why your argument is a failure. Leaning on the "but, results oriented" strawman is beyond ridiculous. Don't believe me, search the thread for the term "contingency, contingencies." End of story. Even if it were March, one would still be perfectly reasonable in predicting this decision COULD cost the team some wins in October. The entire point of owning/managing a sports team is to win a championship, period. It is NOT to collect wild card/division pennants. You can't say "but they are playoff bound, your argument is based on results, not possibilities, herp derp." Get it through your head, the Nationals were a talented team heading into 2012, and they have lived up to their potential, so far. This is not the Orioles we're talking here. Your "results oriented" argument is a strawman. You cannot discount what has happened because the team needed one team ahead of them in divisional projections to falter. If I'm being results oriented, you're being "they were supposed to finish in fourth place, might as well make fishing plans for the first week in October" oriented.
no, i'm being "if they were going to make the playoffs it was reasonable to think it would be a close finish and thus they would need as many regular season wins as possible to make it to the playoffs" oriented.
it's not that difficult to understand.
the phillies won 102 games last year. the braves are a very good team. the marlins spent boatloads of money and looked competitive. you could both think that the nationals were a talented team and compete AND also think that it's a tough division and it would come down to the wire. nobody, absolutely nobody, including you, thought the nationals were just going to run away with the division. for the nationals to just throw away regular season wins with the expectation that it would happen would have been seen as incompetence. plain and simple.
your number one goal as a team should be to get to the playoffs. you do everything you can do get there because once you're there it's a crapshoot anyways. sure if they knew everything they know now they may have gone about it differently. but they had to make a decision based on the information they had at the time and that decision was to do have as much success as possible during the regular season in hopes that they could get to the playoffs. there is absolutely nothing wrong with that decision.
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by jorgesca » Fri Sep 07, 2012 2:44 am 
