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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby benb18a » Fri Sep 07, 2012 1:24 am

lastingsgriller wrote:
benb18a wrote:
The Nationals went into Spring with one of the best pitching staffs in the league, from ace to closer. I would say the possibilities are a bit higher than under 90 wins, given the youth and talent of their offense as well.


That's pretty damn bold. 90 wins is a lot. But as has been mentioned, hindsight is 20/20. Pretty funny, though, that I say I was higher on them than anyone and you basically say that I was silly for not being higher than I was.

I, like h0rt, would love it if you could direct me to one article where someone was suggesting they would win more than that. Maybe one of your posts from the beginning of the season or something.


I never said you were silly. Just said that management put together a fairly strong team with loads of young talent, which is a recipe for high potential, as we are seeing. If anything all I've said throughout this thread is that management is silly. It doesn't matter if 50 million, or zero people predicted they would win 90 games. What does matter, is the fact that the Nationals are having themselves a very good year. And I've already posted an article from exactly a year ago that clearly states they have a pretty high ceiling this year. Prognosticating the most likely is not relevant. Preparing for contingencies is. And the #1 goal of any organized sports team is to win a title, not quality for the playoffs.
Last edited by benb18a on Fri Sep 07, 2012 1:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby benb18a » Fri Sep 07, 2012 1:33 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:
benb18a wrote:No, I'm not. I'm simply stating that, if he has to miss about a month of the regular season, he would be more valuable to the team if he were around for the playoffs than if he were not. Period.


and i'm saying that nobody is arguing this. we're saying that in order for him to pitch in the playoffs and stay under his 180 IP cap, he would have to miss two months of the regular season (~150 IP regular season, ~30 IP playoffs) as opposed to the one month he misses if he throws all 180 innings during the regular season. given expectations for them preseason, that extra month of regular season pitching could easily end up being what pushes the nats into the playoffs.


You don't even need to shut him down two months. You can start him mid May and he likely enters the playoffs with under 150 IP (he is at 156 right now with about 25 days of the season to go) which means at the very most, he'd do about 180 with a full world series. Isn't that worth taking a chance with, having Strasburg for the world series? You either make his chance pitching in the WS at 5% or whatever would correlate with the preseason Vegas odds, or you make it absolute zero. The team went ahead and made it absolute zero. You can try to stretch reality into an obscure scenario where the 2012 Nationals lose a dozen wins without Strasburg for a dozen starts at the most, that's your prerogative. I simply disagree.

It's great that the team is making an investment in the next decade by being overly cautious with their ace. But one would think that, especially in Washington, the possibility of seizing the opportunity to win an elusive title would take precedence over less fulfilling contingencies.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby GiantsFan14 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 1:33 am

benb18a wrote:
lastingsgriller wrote:
benb18a wrote:
The Nationals went into Spring with one of the best pitching staffs in the league, from ace to closer. I would say the possibilities are a bit higher than under 90 wins, given the youth and talent of their offense as well.


That's pretty damn bold. 90 wins is a lot. But as has been mentioned, hindsight is 20/20. Pretty funny, though, that I say I was higher on them than anyone and you basically say that I was silly for not being higher than I was.

I, like h0rt, would love it if you could direct me to one article where someone was suggesting they would win more than that. Maybe one of your posts from the beginning of the season or something.


I never said you were silly. Just said that management put together a fairly strong team with loads of young talent, which is a recipe for high potential, as we are seeing. If anything all I've said throughout this thread is that management is silly. It doesn't matter if 50 million, or zero people predicted they would win 90 games. What does matter, is the fact that the Nationals are having themselves a very good year. And I've already posted an article from exactly a year ago that clearly states they have a pretty high ceiling this year.


1. ceiling is not what we should expect
2. linking bleacher report articles probably won't get you much love around here
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby GiantsFan14 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 1:44 am

benb18a wrote:You can try to stretch reality into an obscure scenario where the 2012 Nationals lose a dozen wins without Strasburg for a dozen starts at the most, that's your prerogative. I simply disagree.


seriously.

seriously.

nobody is doing this.

before the season nobody knew the nationals would win this many games.

before the season if the nationals were going to make the playoffs most people would have assumed it would be by a slim margin.

not getting those extra 30 innings from strasburg could have easily cost the nationals one (1!) win if not more.

in a close race one (1!) win can make a huge difference.

this is not an obscure scenario, this is something that could easily have been expected preseason.

before the season, making decisions that would cost the team regular season wins based on an expectation of coasting into the playoffs would have been seen as incompetency.

saying that we think the nationals would somehow win 12 games less or something is just proving how results oriented you're being. we're thinking from the mindset that the nationals had preseason when they were not expected to be this good (though they did have plenty of potential!). how many wins they have right now is irrelevant. all that matters is how people (including management) expected the team to do before the season started.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby benb18a » Fri Sep 07, 2012 1:59 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:
1. ceiling is not what we should expect
2. linking bleacher report articles probably won't get you much love around here


1. No, it's not. But, some prevent problems, most fix them. This is quasi-relevant. Ceiling isn't what you expect, it's what you should be preparing for. And I think I've already explained that this year's new playoff format pretty much screws over wildcard teams, and getting into the playoffs by the skin of your teeth is going to produce far less October darlings than in recent years. Which skews things more toward the "I'd rather have him for the playoffs, than only to the point where he helps us get to a play-in game that puts us at a disadvantage for at least the first playoff series" side of things, which is of course my opinion and philosophy.
2. That's cool. Maybe instead of giving someone credit for stating the Nationals could be in for a huge year last year I should go and join the circle jerk for Hosmer/Lawrie and Co. I'm not here for the love and I don't have any positive regard for those who engage in mob mentality, either. I'm here to discuss baseball and hopefully receive advice for my new hobby, and hopefully be able to give some in coming seasons. ;-D
1B: Freeman 2B: Craig 3B: Beltre SS: Seager C: Lucroy OF: Granderson, Harper, BJ Up UT: Kipnis, Aoki
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby benb18a » Fri Sep 07, 2012 2:04 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:
benb18a wrote:You can try to stretch reality into an obscure scenario where the 2012 Nationals lose a dozen wins without Strasburg for a dozen starts at the most, that's your prerogative. I simply disagree.


seriously.

seriously.

nobody is doing this.

before the season nobody knew the nationals would win this many games.

before the season if the nationals were going to make the playoffs most people would have assumed it would be by a slim margin.

not getting those extra 30 innings from strasburg could have easily cost the nationals one (1!) win if not more.

in a close race one (1!) win can make a huge difference.

this is not an obscure scenario, this is something that could easily have been expected preseason.

before the season, making decisions that would cost the team regular season wins based on an expectation of coasting into the playoffs would have been seen as incompetency.

saying that we think the nationals would somehow win 12 games less or something is just proving how results oriented you're being. we're thinking from the mindset that the nationals had preseason when they were not expected to be this good (though they did have plenty of potential!). how many wins they have right now is irrelevant. all that matters is how people (including management) expected the team to do before the season started.


Management would be seen as incompetent if the team loses in the playoffs without Stras. The crux of our disagreement is merely philosophical. We both have valid points and arguments. All things being equal, which they are because we're being hypothetical, I would rather lose Strasburg for April than October. Your argument is that there is a higher possibility of being no October without Strasburg being there in April. In this version of infinite universes, that is unlikely to be the case. The end. :-b
1B: Freeman 2B: Craig 3B: Beltre SS: Seager C: Lucroy OF: Granderson, Harper, BJ Up UT: Kipnis, Aoki
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby GiantsFan14 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 2:06 am

benb18a wrote:
GiantsFan14 wrote:
1. ceiling is not what we should expect
2. linking bleacher report articles probably won't get you much love around here


1. No, it's not. But, some prevent problems, most fix them. This is quasi-relevant. Ceiling isn't what you expect, it's what you should be preparing for. And I think I've already explained that this year's new playoff format pretty much screws over wildcard teams, and getting into the playoffs by the skin of your teeth is going to produce far less October darlings than in recent years. Which skews things more toward the "I'd rather have him for the playoffs, than only to the point where he helps us get to a play-in game that puts us at a disadvantage for at least the first playoff series" side of things, which is of course my opinion and philosophy.
2. That's cool. Maybe instead of giving someone credit for stating the Nationals could be in for a huge year last year I should go and join the circle jerk for Hosmer/Lawrie and Co. I'm not here for the love and I don't have any positive regard for those who engage in mob mentality, either. I'm here to discuss baseball and hopefully receive advice for my new hobby, and hopefully be able to give some in coming seasons. ;-D


There's no mob mentality here, Bleacher Report just tends to be an absolutely terrible website for anyone who isn't an incredibly casual fantasy player. Like a really terrible source of information. That's not to say their predictions don't come true once in awhile, just that they aren't really taken seriously around here because overall it's pretty bad.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby GiantsFan14 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 2:10 am

benb18a wrote:Management would be seen as incompetent if the team loses in the playoffs without Stras. The crux of our disagreement is merely philosophical. We both have valid points and arguments. All things being equal, which they are because we're being hypothetical, I would rather lose Strasburg for April than October.


again, it's not as simple as a one month for one month trade-off.

Your argument is that there is a higher possibility of being no October without Strasburg being there in April. In this version of infinite universes, that is unlikely to be the case. The end. :-b


so you're just admitting to being results oriented. i guess this is the end then.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby benb18a » Fri Sep 07, 2012 2:14 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:
There's no mob mentality here, Bleacher Report just tends to be an absolutely terrible website for anyone who isn't an incredibly casual fantasy player. Like a really terrible source of information. That's not to say their predictions don't come true once in awhile, just that they aren't really taken seriously around here because overall it's pretty bad.


Has been duly noted ;-D I'm not really that hardcore (yet) but I respect most of the opinions here that are held by many of the members. They seemed to do a good job covering the Greinke trade rumors and that was pretty much the only other exposure to their stuff I've had. I just came across that article in a quick Google search and couldn't help but notice the precision (or luck, but who doesn't get lucky/unlucky?) so I went with it :-b
1B: Freeman 2B: Craig 3B: Beltre SS: Seager C: Lucroy OF: Granderson, Harper, BJ Up UT: Kipnis, Aoki
BN: Howard, Rizzo, Donaldson
DL: Tulo
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby benb18a » Fri Sep 07, 2012 2:26 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:
so you're just admitting to being results oriented. i guess this is the end then.


Nope. I'm being "you build a team to win a World Series title, not lose in the NLDS with Edwin Jackson starting game four for you" oriented :-D I'm just using results to suggest that preparation for the possibility of a legitimate World Series run is one that had merit.
1B: Freeman 2B: Craig 3B: Beltre SS: Seager C: Lucroy OF: Granderson, Harper, BJ Up UT: Kipnis, Aoki
BN: Howard, Rizzo, Donaldson
DL: Tulo
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