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stephen strasburg

Postby lastingsgriller » Thu Sep 06, 2012 11:55 pm

bigh0rt wrote:Nobody, I repeat, nobody picked Washington. If they did point me in their direction, I'd like to give credit where it is due.


I think this guy suggested there was a chance. Said if everything went right, they could win 88+ games.

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/2012 ... ls_2_2.php

I have no idea how this relates to the current discussion except the fact that I was as high on the Nats going into the season as anyone, and even I don't think they should have waited till June to get strasburg started.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby benb18a » Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:08 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:
benb18a wrote:What difference does it make if Stras misses the first month of the season, or misses the last?


seriously you completely missed the point.

1. they are cutting him off at 180 innings. period. post season innings count towards that total.
2. if they wanted him to pitch in the playoffs he would have had to throw less than 180 innings in the regular season.
3. if they save 30 innings for the playoffs and that means he can only throw 150 innings in the regular season
4. if he only throws 150 innings in the regular season, the nationals win expectancy goes down and the nationals are less likely to make the playoffs.
5. if they don't make the playoffs then you completely waste 30 innings which could have helped you get to the playoffs to begin with.
6. that is a huge risk for any team, especially one who was projected to barely make the playoffs at best.


Then we agree to disagree. We don't know what could have been, only what was, and what is. What was (last year, the offseason acquisition of GG, return of several key players to health) should have made management think about the postseason possibilities of this year. What is, a team that will enter the playoffs, likely with homefield throughout, without their best player. We're both making an argument of "what if," and I'm sorry if I can't take the position that sitting Stras for the end of the season is similar WRT overall team success than delaying his 2012 debut a month. The Nats may win the title without him. They might have finished in last place with him. You can't liken a lack of foresight to a roll of the roulette wheel. At the end of the day anybody in baseball will take any little advantage they can. Simply put, having your best player for a possible playoff appearance > having him for the first month of the season. And I'm pretty sure many managers would agree. Except maybe Boche :-b
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby benb18a » Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:16 am

lastingsgriller wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:Nobody, I repeat, nobody picked Washington. If they did point me in their direction, I'd like to give credit where it is due.


I think this guy suggested there was a chance. Said if everything went right, they could win 88+ games.

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/2012 ... ls_2_2.php

I have no idea how this relates to the current discussion except the fact that I was as high on the Nats going into the season as anyone, and even I don't think they should have waited till June to get strasburg started.


The Nationals went into Spring with one of the best pitching staffs in the league, from ace to closer. I would say the possibilities are a bit higher than under 90 wins, given the youth and talent of their offense as well.
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stephen strasburg

Postby lastingsgriller » Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:19 am

benb18a wrote:Simply put, having your best player for a possible playoff appearance > having him for the first month of the season. And I'm pretty sure many managers would agree. Except maybe Boche :-b


Unless, of course, you don't make the playoffs.. and around we go.
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stephen strasburg

Postby lastingsgriller » Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:30 am

benb18a wrote:
The Nationals went into Spring with one of the best pitching staffs in the league, from ace to closer. I would say the possibilities are a bit higher than under 90 wins, given the youth and talent of their offense as well.


That's pretty damn bold. 90 wins is a lot. But as has been mentioned, hindsight is 20/20. Pretty funny, though, that I say I was higher on them than anyone and you basically say that I was silly for not being higher than I was.

I, like h0rt, would love it if you could direct me to one article where someone was suggesting they would win more than that. Maybe one of your posts from the beginning of the season or something.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby GiantsFan14 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:31 am

benb18a wrote:Simply put, having your best player for a possible playoff appearance > having him for the first month of the season. And I'm pretty sure many managers would agree. Except maybe Boche :-b


seriously, now you're just saying stuff that has nothing to do with the argument that is being made. absolutely nobody is arguing that having your best player in the playoffs is better than having him the first month of the season. nowhere in this thread have i or anyone else said that because it's an absolutely ridiculous notion.

the problem is that NO team is guaranteed to make the playoffs, especially one who finished under .500 last year and while improved, had quite a few question marks coming into this year. you can claim in hindsight that you had them pegged as a 90+ win team, but nobody else did and it would be silly for the nats to make decisions based on something that could possibly happen if everything went right. all they could do is make the most logical decision at the time and that was ensuring that strasburg got to his 180 innings and did everything he could to get his team to the playoffs.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby ayebatter » Fri Sep 07, 2012 12:46 am

Baseball is a business (to some), just follow the money, because of their hot start in April (14-8 with Strasburg in the rotation), their home attendance is up from under 25,000 in 2011 to nearly 30,000 in 2012. that pays a lot of bills, that is something that ownership could project, getting to the playoffs wasn't.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby benb18a » Fri Sep 07, 2012 1:05 am

GiantsFan14 wrote:
benb18a wrote:Simply put, having your best player for a possible playoff appearance > having him for the first month of the season. And I'm pretty sure many managers would agree. Except maybe Boche :-b


seriously, now you're just saying stuff that has nothing to do with the argument that is being made. absolutely nobody is arguing that having your best player in the playoffs is better than having him the first month of the season. nowhere in this thread have i or anyone else said that because it's an absolutely ridiculous notion.

the problem is that NO team is guaranteed to make the playoffs, especially one who finished under .500 last year and while improved, had quite a few question marks coming into this year. you can claim in hindsight that you had them pegged as a 90+ win team, but nobody else did and it would be silly for the nats to make decisions based on something that could possibly happen if everything went right. all they could do is make the most logical decision at the time and that was ensuring that strasburg got to his 180 innings and did everything he could to get his team to the playoffs.


No, I'm not. I'm simply stating that, if he has to miss about a month of the regular season, he would be more valuable to the team if he were around for the playoffs than if he were not. Period.

I never claimed I had them pegged for 90+ wins. I claim I considered them a team with serious potential...and they are on pace to smash 90 wins. Let's put this another way - are you more surprised by the success this year of the Nationals, or Orioles? That was a rhetorical question. Bottom line is, nobody can accurately foresee anything, but you can have a good idea on the potentiality of something, and make adjustments accordingly. Kind of like when you're midseason, in first place and try to make a trade for that guy with a very palatable playoff schedule. And my most likely forecast is the Nats losing in the playoffs, and I believe they most likely would have made the playoffs without Stras for the first several weeks of the season. They probably lose in the playoffs with Stras, but you can't deny that, at this point, they would be the favorites if the season ended today and they had Stras.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby benb18a » Fri Sep 07, 2012 1:08 am

ayebatter wrote:Baseball is a business (to some), just follow the money, because of their hot start in April (14-8 with Strasburg in the rotation), their home attendance is up from under 25,000 in 2011 to nearly 30,000 in 2012. that pays a lot of bills, that is something that ownership could project, getting to the playoffs wasn't.


There is no doubt that Strasburg helped draw fans at the beginning of the season. But how many (+-$300) tickets are they likely to lose as the Nationals project to not get as far in the playoffs with homefield throughout without Strasburg? Just another contingency to think about.
1B: Freeman 2B: Craig 3B: Beltre SS: Seager C: Lucroy OF: Granderson, Harper, BJ Up UT: Kipnis, Aoki
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby GiantsFan14 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 1:22 am

benb18a wrote:No, I'm not. I'm simply stating that, if he has to miss about a month of the regular season, he would be more valuable to the team if he were around for the playoffs than if he were not. Period.


and i'm saying that nobody is arguing this. we're saying that in order for him to pitch in the playoffs and stay under his 180 IP cap, he would have to miss two months of the regular season (~150 IP regular season, ~30 IP playoffs) as opposed to the one month he misses if he throws all 180 innings during the regular season. given expectations for them preseason, that extra month of regular season pitching could easily end up being what pushes the nats into the playoffs.
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