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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby benb18a » Thu Sep 06, 2012 6:04 pm

lol @ an 80 win team that added two frontline starters with a young and talented offense being a consensus fourth place finisher. I don't think anybody predicted they'd take the league by storm this year, but a serious WC contender with upside for what they've done was not out of the question. This is a team built around an excellent rotation, that will be out its best pitcher, in the playoffs. They will have gone from as good a bet as any team in the postseason to a team that is almost sure to fail, as a result. You don't just build a team for playoff contention and then bet on them not being in the playoffs. Every single year we see teams that fail to make the playoffs buy come trade deadline.

Actually, now that I think about it, trying to get Dempster was the smart thing to do, since Rizzo realized he had shot himself in the foot with Strasburg.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Sep 06, 2012 6:32 pm

benb18a wrote:lol @ an 80 win team that added two frontline starters with a young and talented offense being a consensus fourth place finisher. I don't think anybody predicted they'd take the league by storm this year, but a serious WC contender with upside for what they've done was not out of the question. This is a team built around an excellent rotation, that will be out its best pitcher, in the playoffs. They will have gone from as good a bet as any team in the postseason to a team that is almost sure to fail, as a result. You don't just build a team for playoff contention and then bet on them not being in the playoffs. Every single year we see teams that fail to make the playoffs buy come trade deadline.

Actually, now that I think about it, trying to get Dempster was the smart thing to do, since Rizzo realized he had shot himself in the foot with Strasburg.


So i assume you placed quite a wager on the Nationals to win the world series this year?

A wild card team needs as many starts as possible from their best pitcher to even get into the playoffs. Strasburg does them no good in the playoffs if they can't get there in the first place. Can you imagine how crazy people would go if they started Strasburg in May, he only threw 150 innings and they missed the playoffs by one game?

This is a classic example of people being results oriented and trying to come up with a solution that would have made no sense back at the time it would have had to be made.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Sep 06, 2012 6:42 pm

benb18a wrote:lol @ an 80 win team that added two frontline starters with a young and talented offense being a consensus fourth place finisher. I don't think anybody predicted they'd take the league by storm this year, but a serious WC contender with upside for what they've done was not out of the question. This is a team built around an excellent rotation, that will be out its best pitcher, in the playoffs. They will have gone from as good a bet as any team in the postseason to a team that is almost sure to fail, as a result. You don't just build a team for playoff contention and then bet on them not being in the playoffs. Every single year we see teams that fail to make the playoffs buy come trade deadline.

Actually, now that I think about it, trying to get Dempster was the smart thing to do, since Rizzo realized he had shot himself in the foot with Strasburg.

What's even lolliermis that Gio Gonzalez was wildly criticized for,being an unreliable BB machinemwho people didn't trust, even transitioning to the NL, to be consistent or terribly effective. Its a lot easier to call him a front lne starter now that he's actually shown he's capable of being one. I venture you to find someone calling him one in March, though, and not being chastized for it. The picks were Philly with their four 'Aces' and Atlanta to somehow finish 1-2 in the East with the potential for the mega-spending Marlins to contend. Nobody, I repeat, nobody picked Washington. If they did point me in their direction, I'd like to give credit where it is due. And are we really calling Edwin Jackson a frontline starter?? C'mon now. Lets at least try and keep this reasonable.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby benb18a » Thu Sep 06, 2012 9:27 pm

I meant the addition of Strasburg, since he pitched what like 25 innings last year and was shut down? Point being, they were a .500 club with RZimm gone half the year, JZimm limited, Stras virtually not used and then added Gio Gonzalez, a guy who had averaged 15 wins and a 3.20 ERA the previous two seasons. If that's not a recipe for +-90 wins, I don't know what is.

Also, I'm pretty sure only one guy on ESPN's entire panel predicted the Brewers to win the NL Central last season. Going off the predictions of pundits =/= going off the actions of a GM/owner which indicates desire to compete and win right now. Coming up with "but, they could have won like 15 less games and missed the playoffs without their best starter for a month" scenarios is a little ridiculous IMHO. The plane could crash for all we know. What we do know is that the Nats were a competitive team last year, and just because they are an organization that has never had any postseason success in modern times doesn't mean they can't make marked improvements this year and make the playoffs, because they all but have.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Sep 06, 2012 9:49 pm

Seriously, it's like people don't actually read what I'm writing.

Nobody said that Nats couldn't be competitive. All I've said is that allowing Strasburg to pitch as much as possible in the regular season gave them the best chance to make the playoffs. I don't see how that can possibly be disputed. If you were projecting the Nats to be this far ahead before the season then you should have put a lot of money on it because nobody else was.

I am not making up a crazy scenario. I'm saying that at the beginning of the year (when the decision actually had to be made!), nobody would have projected the Nationals to have this big of a lead. Sure, it looked like they could compete, but part of that included getting as much out of Strasburg as they could. Starting him later and limiting him to 150 IP in the regular season would have been pure negligence at the time because you had to assume that if the Nationals were in the race, it would be a close one and every win would be incredibly important. It is incredibly reasonable to say that replacing 30 innings of Strasburg with 30 innings of a replacement level pitcher could have cost the Nationals a chance at the playoffs.

If you don't understand how results oriented you're being then there's not much more I can say.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby benb18a » Thu Sep 06, 2012 10:10 pm

No, we have a discrepancy in philosophies, and my philosophy (including rather having second-half guys like ARam over a guy with a consistent, similar output) is the same as any owner's should be, which is putting yourself in the best position to win baseball games in late September/October. You can't win a division in April, but you can lose it. You can scream "hindsight bias" all you want but the fact of the matter is, the front office of the team failed to put its team in the best possible position to win a championship. If the premises of your argument were consistent and accurate, there would be no scramble to divest of future stars to acquire a rental for two months each and every single trade deadline. To say "6 starts by Strasburg = 7 games in the division and 9 in the WC race, becos Lannan/Wang are teh suck" is exactly what I am implicated in doing. What happens if the Nats were to falter down the stretch? If they limp into the playoffs and get decimated by the Reds without Strasburg the fans are going to be just as up in arms as if they lost the WC by one game...because of five months ago. Based on what we have seen, both this season, last season, and during the offseason, there is one solution that involves limiting his IP and most likely doesn't involve allowing for a regression, and/or losing a playoff series, where great pitchers earn their reputations and paycheck.

You can agree with me if you want, just don't accuse me of speculating and doing what you're doing by trying to argue that this decision wasn't a myopic one by Rizzlol.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Sep 06, 2012 10:23 pm

The playoffs are a crapshoot. You put your team in the best possible position to get to the playoffs and take it from there. Making decisions by assuming a previously mediocre team will coast it's way to the playoffs is a very good way to not make the playoffs.

The odds of winning a championship if you don't make the playoffs is not very good.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby benb18a » Thu Sep 06, 2012 10:54 pm

What difference does it make if Stras misses the first month of the season, or misses the last? Answer: it doesn't. And you of all people should know that pitching wins titles, and you need all available aces on deck to win a playoff series. Yes, the playoffs is a craps shoot, but I'd rather play with loaded dice than unloaded ones if the rules allow for them :-b
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby buffalobillsrul2002 » Thu Sep 06, 2012 10:56 pm

A bunch of things:

1. Who's to say that Strasburg wouldn't get hurt this year with an injury (even have a 15-day DL stint or so) and therefore not get to 180 innings pitched until the end of the season. If the Nationals had done anything that did not allow him to reach 180 innings this year, this would be very bad as it would not allow him to be truly prepared to reach 200 innings next year and beyond.

2. This decision for the Nationals is about much more than just this year. They are looking at this (perhaps rightfully so) saying that having Strasburg ready to pitch 200 innings for the next ten years is more important than having him be able to pitch the rest of this month and playoffs. This attitude actually makes sense if you think about it; the playoffs are essentially a crapshoot and what is Strasburg really work the rest of the season/playoffs. Maybe 1-2 games? (he'd get maybe 3-5 starts in the playoffs depending on how far the Nats went, plus he's losing 3-4 starts the the rest of the season. Assuming that a full season of Strasburg is worth even ten games over suck like Lannan, then he's maybe worth 1-2 games in the playoffs. But it's likely not even that much, especially assuming that replacement level pitcher in the playoffs is much higher).

3. The medical advice that the Nats received with Strasburg (that the only option was to have him pitch 180 innings and then sit down) is highly debatable. But Rizzo got the advice he got from his medical experts I'm sure (whether or not they are actually correct is debatable; I've heard plenty of other opinions/seen plenty of other data that say this isn't true).

Overall, given the Nationals' medical experts' advice (experts may disagree), the only option the Nationals had that was in the best interest of the long-term development of Stephen Strasburg (which is more important long-term than some small benefit in the playoffs this year) was to make the decision they made.

(For the record, if I were Mike Rizzo, I wouldn't be shutting Strasburg down (maybe I'd have him skip a couple starts here and there in August/September to keep his innings around 200 for the season/playoffs). But that's because I think the innings limits are crap; clearly the Nationals think they are valid and given this they had no choice.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Sep 06, 2012 11:03 pm

benb18a wrote:What difference does it make if Stras misses the first month of the season, or misses the last?


seriously you completely missed the point.

1. they are cutting him off at 180 innings. period. post season innings count towards that total.
2. if they wanted him to pitch in the playoffs he would have had to throw less than 180 innings in the regular season.
3. if they save 30 innings for the playoffs and that means he can only throw 150 innings in the regular season
4. if he only throws 150 innings in the regular season, the nationals win expectancy goes down and the nationals are less likely to make the playoffs.
5. if they don't make the playoffs then you completely waste 30 innings which could have helped you get to the playoffs to begin with.
6. that is a huge risk for any team, especially one who was projected to barely make the playoffs at best.
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