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stephen strasburg

Postby lastingsgriller » Wed Sep 05, 2012 11:37 pm

benb18a wrote:
lastingsgriller wrote:
benb18a wrote:
Actually, they'd still be in first place if you take his 3.0 WAR out of the equation.


sure, I bet they would have 3 less wins they had chien-ming wang pitching all year instead of Stephen Strasburg. and if that is the case, why is everybody so up in arms about whether he keeps pitching or not? good point, though.


Lollerskates. My point is, they're 7.5 games up over the WC1 team, and have the best record in the MLB. It's not as if they would have been in fourth place if Stras had sat the first month or two. That's my point.


Not a very good point, though. Trying to go back and re-write history while theoretically removing the most impactful player in the team is an exercise in futility.

He has been extraordinarily consistent. You have no idea how many times the team had negative momentum and his turn came up and swung the teams momentum the other way. Or pushing the teams momentum forward in the midst of a winning run.

You can't really argue the nats decisions thus far, because they made decisions that have put them up 7.5 games at this point.

Unless you are one of those people that think there is no such thing as momentum and it has no impact on a teams record. If that is the case, then you can just go ahead and keep believing that strasburg has only been worth 3 extra wins this year and we'll go our separate ways.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby benb18a » Thu Sep 06, 2012 12:03 am

lastingsgriller wrote:
benb18a wrote:
lastingsgriller wrote:
sure, I bet they would have 3 less wins they had chien-ming wang pitching all year instead of Stephen Strasburg. and if that is the case, why is everybody so up in arms about whether he keeps pitching or not? good point, though.


Lollerskates. My point is, they're 7.5 games up over the WC1 team, and have the best record in the MLB. It's not as if they would have been in fourth place if Stras had sat the first month or two. That's my point.


Not a very good point, though. Trying to go back and re-write history while theoretically removing the most impactful player in the team is an exercise in futility.

He has been extraordinarily consistent. You have no idea how many times the team had negative momentum and his turn came up and swung the teams momentum the other way. Or pushing the teams momentum forward in the midst of a winning run.

You can't really argue the nats decisions thus far, because they made decisions that have put them up 7.5 games at this point.

Unless you are one of those people that think there is no such thing as momentum and it has no impact on a teams record. If that is the case, then you can just go ahead and keep believing that strasburg has only been worth 3 extra wins this year and we'll go our separate ways.


Everybody has different beliefs; in this very thread, some pretty knowledgeable people question whether shutting him down or not has any bearing on his body in the first place. I am aware of the concept of the "stopper" pitcher, but do not believe that an ace can create an effect that would augment the team's performance empirically more than their start every fifth day. Otherwise the Phillies would have won the title last year, instead they lost at home with Halladay on the mound. Momentum can make a big difference, but the significance is not all that common (pretty sure all last place teams win 5+ games in a row each season; I think the Brewers were a 60 win team when they won 10 in a row). I'll take the more talented team over the momentum team any day of the week. Also, and I love how you used Wang as an example, I suspect the Nats still have the lowest ERA in the NL, assuredly in the top 3, with Lannan pitching a month or two in Stras' place.
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stephen strasburg

Postby lastingsgriller » Thu Sep 06, 2012 12:57 am

I just used Wang as a replacement level pitcher. But, whatever, use lannan. Anyways like I said, if you believe that Stephen Strasburg has only been worth 3 more wins than replacement level, you can just go ahead and keep believing that.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby benb18a » Thu Sep 06, 2012 3:06 am

He is likely more valuable than that overall, but the Nats are still a playoff team without him.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Sep 06, 2012 7:15 am

benb18a wrote:He is likely more valuable than that overall, but the Nats are still a playoff team without him.
There weren't many people who believed that in the Spring, with or without him. ayebatter nailed it here.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby jorgesca » Thu Sep 06, 2012 2:00 pm

I agree not a lot of people thought the Nats were a slam dunk playoff team and I think that had a lot to do with the decision of not starting Strasburg in May. If they started him in May and they didn't get to the playoffs he wouldn't have pitched the 180 innings he will be pitching this season and while there is no scientific data backing up innings jumps and shutting downs, the experts on the field who know more than pretty much about everyone else about the procedure as well as the recovery, recommend to keep an eye on these factors.

The Nats want Strasburg to make a full recovery, have him pitch 200+ innings next season and beyond and then never turn back and see having TJS. Have the Nats known they'd for sure be in the playoffs I think they would have started him in May and that would have been the right call, but without that benefit, this was the best way/bet of getting him his 180 innings, see how he progress from the injury and still have some wiggle room if another injury happened that would cause him to miss some time during the season and still get him his 180 innings.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby benb18a » Thu Sep 06, 2012 2:10 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
benb18a wrote:He is likely more valuable than that overall, but the Nats are still a playoff team without him.
There weren't many people who believed that in the Spring, with or without him. ayebatter nailed it here.


There were many people here who thought Lawrie/Hosmer would be elite at their positions. Sometimes things just go wrong. And then you have a team who is chock full of young talent http://bleacherreport.com/articles/8627 ... -12/page/3 and improving by trading prospects for Gio Gonzalez, and you have a front office who is in "win now" mode, but apparently not in win now mode?

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Washington dropped the ball on this one. Now they face the very real possibility of getting ousted in the playoffs due to circumstances they could have prevented.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Sep 06, 2012 3:08 pm

So you want to start him late enough that he can pitch in the playoffs, but then if they don't make the playoffs he falls like 20-30 innings short of his cap and those are innings which could have gone toward helping them make the playoffs.

If they were to wait till May to start him and Strasburg only ended up with 150 IP and Washington barely missed the playoffs, people would be going off on them for not using those 30 extra innings to help them get into the playoffs.

You have to get there before you can worry about what happens once you are there.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby bigh0rt » Thu Sep 06, 2012 4:37 pm

GiantsFan14 wrote:So you want to start him late enough that he can pitch in the playoffs, but then if they don't make the playoffs he falls like 20-30 innings short of his cap and those are innings which could have gone toward helping them make the playoffs.

If they were to wait till May to start him and Strasburg only ended up with 150 IP and Washington barely missed the playoffs, people would be going off on them for not using those 30 extra innings to help them get into the playoffs.

You have to get there before you can worry about what happens once you are there.
Really if you're choosing any other stance than this it's entirely revisionist and hindsight. Where were the lines of people tolling the bell for Washington to make the playoffs this year in March? Who wasn't picking them to finish 4th ahead of only the Mets, because their offense looked terrible?
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby GiantsFan14 » Thu Sep 06, 2012 4:48 pm

bigh0rt wrote:Really if you're choosing any other stance than this it's entirely revisionist and hindsight. Where were the lines of people tolling the bell for Washington to make the playoffs this year in March? Who wasn't picking them to finish 4th ahead of only the Mets, because their offense looked terrible?


People are incredibly results oriented. It's just the society we live in.
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