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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby J35J » Fri Sep 07, 2012 3:55 pm

GiantsFan14 wrote:no, i'm being "if they were going to make the playoffs it was reasonable to think it would be a close finish and thus they would need as many regular season wins as possible to make it to the playoffs" oriented.

it's not that difficult to understand.

the phillies won 102 games last year. the braves are a very good team. the marlins spent boatloads of money and looked competitive. you could both think that the nationals were a talented team and compete AND also think that it's a tough division and it would come down to the wire. nobody, absolutely nobody, including you, thought the nationals were just going to run away with the division. for the nationals to just throw away regular season wins with the expectation that it would happen would have been seen as incompetence. plain and simple.

your number one goal as a team should be to get to the playoffs. you do everything you can do get there because once you're there it's a crapshoot anyways. sure if they knew everything they know now they may have gone about it differently. but they had to make a decision based on the information they had at the time and that decision was to do have as much success as possible during the regular season in hopes that they could get to the playoffs. there is absolutely nothing wrong with that decision.


Agreed.

Kinda like trading Justin Upton for Edwin Encarnacion in March...if you made that trade in March doesn't mean you didn't do the 100% right thing at the time even though it didn't turn out to be the right thing in the end. If I make the right move, at the time, I'll deal with the chance that on a rare occasion it might somehow turn out wrong in the end. You wouldn't then not trade Wil Venable for Andrew McCutchen the next year because it's "possible" Venable somehow has a better year when all is said and done...you do what is the most likely at the time and deal with the consequences at the end if for some reason that right move turns out wrong.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Sep 07, 2012 4:00 pm

The best starting pitchers are worth, what, one win per month? Strasburg is worth 4.6 wins so far this season over 5+ months, so about one per month is fair, give or take. It makes a lot of sense to sacrifice that one win for the chance to have Strasburg for the playoffs, where the stakes are exponentially higher. And the odds of making the playoffs are greater than the odds of missing the playoffs by one win. 10 teams will make the playoffs this season and I gurantee way less than 10 will come up short by a single game. So yeah, saying it's purely results oriented is not a fair statement. The results merely prove that the incentive to have him available for the playoffs was justified.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby bigh0rt » Fri Sep 07, 2012 4:12 pm

I'd be interested to see if there was still such sentiment that it was a boneheaded move by Washington if they were in a tight race, or a tight Wild Card race, or not in position to make the playoffs, as most projected. It seems to me that the entire crux of the argument is that they're in first place by several games without a real threat staring at them. When that's the basis for the argument, the reality is you have no argument. Because the decision wasn't made today, it was made months and months ago when the current set of circumstances was a massive probability outlier. When you're expectation is to finish third or possibly fourth in your own division, and you've somehow managed to be in first place all year because the former division powerhouse fell apart at the seams, and the biggest off-season spenders fell apart and had a fire sale, you're thrilled to be playoff bound this year, with new expectation being that with your current core of players, it could be routine over the next several seasons. You don't risk the possibility of putting yourself in a bind next season if Strasburg finished this season at ~150 IP because in March you were anticipating winning your division as a 6:1 dog whose odds were only better than the Mets. At least the Nationals have a long standing record of playoff appearances for them to have made this decision based on.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Sep 07, 2012 4:20 pm

I'll quote this in case you missed it...

Skin Blues wrote:the odds of making the playoffs are greater than the odds of missing the playoffs by one win. 10 teams will make the playoffs this season and I gurantee way less than 10 will come up short by a single game. So yeah, saying it's purely results oriented is not a fair statement.

The chances of them missing the playoffs by one game is much more slim than the chances of them making the playoffs. This was just as obvious before the season as it is now... nothing to do with results.

95% of teams either make the playoffs, or finish far enough out that one month's worth of a pitcher wouldn't have made any difference. Last year there were two such teams. In 2010 there was one. You don't bet one being that one team. You bet one being one of the 29 that do make it or don't come close enough for it to matter.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby benb18a » Fri Sep 07, 2012 4:40 pm

It doesn't matter if it's a boneheaded decision in hindsight, or not. There are so many contingencies it's not even funny. I'll liken it to the going for it on 4th and short in a questionable situation decision made by NFL head coaches. They make it, they're a genius, they don't, they're a moron and the fans are calling for their head.

All the results indicate, is merely that putting your chips on "postseason with Strasburg" vs. "use Strasburg as much as possible to hope to squeak into the playoffs" would have had some justification, and merit. There is no arguing that. As it stands right now, the front office made a boneheaded decision that will likely cost them a title in what is by far their best chance at one in two decades. I've already stated that failure to win the title this year, will be considered a boneheaded decision in any event other than the team easily making the playoffs this year without Stras for the first 6 weeks and losing with him. It is likely that we will not be able to see what might have been as Strasburg is shut down weeks before the playoffs and they have to trot Jackson/Detwiler out there instead of Strasburg twice a series.

Besides, some people have the philosophy that making the playoffs fully loaded with homefield throughout is more desirable than three wildcard berths in the current format where you enter the LDS at a distinct disadvantage in the first place.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby GiantsFan14 » Fri Sep 07, 2012 4:48 pm

benb18a wrote:Besides, some people have the philosophy that making the playoffs fully loaded with homefield throughout is more desirable than three wildcard berths in the current format where you enter the LDS at a distinct disadvantage in the first place.


which would make regular season wins even more important because winning the division is so much more valuable than winning a wild card spot.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby bigh0rt » Fri Sep 07, 2012 5:04 pm

Where were all these criticisms in March? Since it was such an obvious gaffe you'd have thought that the Nats management would have come under major scrutiny at the time the decision was announced. But alas, they were not. And the reason is because people love to post-judge after the dice have been cast. Meanwhile I'll never be able to understand that notion because judging any decision under any set of circumstances other than the ones in existance at the time of the decision is stupid. And had this really been that big of a whoops, you would've seen a lot of criticism from all avenues, which conveniently didn't happen until about a month ago after a major long shot came to fruition. You make decisions based on likelihood of happenings and risk vs reward. I can't for the life of me wrap my head around an inability to at least recognize this and link it to this situation. So many Monday morning QBs.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby Skin Blues » Fri Sep 07, 2012 5:20 pm

bigh0rt wrote:Where were all these criticisms in March? Since it was such an obvious gaffe you'd have thought that the Nats management would have come under major scrutiny at the time the decision was announced.

There are lots of mistakes that don't get scrutinized like this until they come back to bite the teams that make them. Doens't mean it wasn't a mistake. If there was a dozen page thread on every mistake that teams make throughout the season there'd be a thousand threads in here. This particular mistake turned out to hurt them pretty significantly, hence all the attention.

bigh0rt wrote:judging any decision under any set of circumstances other than the ones in existance at the time of the decision is stupid ... You make decisions based on likelihood of happenings and risk vs reward.

Yup, and we can easily put ourselves in the circumstances in existence at the time of the decision. 5% chance of coming up 1 game short of the playoffs. 95% chance of actually making the playoffs or not even coming close. In 95% of outcomes, nothing is lost by not having Strasburg pitching in April.

bigh0rt wrote:I can't for the life of me wrap my head around an inability to at least recognize this and link it to this situation.

Everybody recognizes that they weren't favourites to make the playoffs, but they had a decent chance with that rotation, which before the season was arguably one of the ebst in baseball. In my opinion this mistake is exacerbated by the fact that there's no evidence to suggest shutting him down will even prevent injury in 2013 anyway.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby jorgesca » Fri Sep 07, 2012 5:39 pm

[quote="bigh0rt"]judging any decision under any set of circumstances other than the ones in existance at the time of the decision is stupid ... You make decisions based on likelihood of happenings and risk vs reward.[/quote]
Yup, and we can easily put ourselves in the circumstances in existence at the time of the decision. 5% chance of coming up 1 game short of the playoffs. 95% chance of actually making the playoffs or not even coming close. In 95% of outcomes, nothing is lost by not having Strasburg pitching in April.[/quote]

I think you are not factoring in the effect of Strasburg not pitching 180 innings and pitching only 150 if they don't make the playoffs, what if he gets a 15 DL stint, then has a start pushed back that's 125 innings pitched total in 2012 and now leaves you in 2013 with the same question, when 2013 is the year they are supposed to or they were ready to contend, not 2012.
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Re: stephen strasburg

Postby bigh0rt » Fri Sep 07, 2012 5:45 pm

Yup, and we can easily put ourselves in the circumstances in existence at the time of the decision. 5% chance of coming up 1 game short of the playoffs. 95% chance of actually making the playoffs or not even coming close. In 95% of outcomes, nothing is lost by not having Strasburg pitching in April.
putting the opinion of the limit aside and accepting that they set it at 180 ip and maintained since the fall that they would adhere to it, you run the risk in "saving" strasburg innings dring the regular season so that he can pitch in the playoffs, the tremendous pre-season likelihood that they wouldn't make the playoffs. You say 95% chance they'd make it or not sans the 1 Game, but the reality of that is their pre-season likelihood of not making it massively outweighed their chances of making it. If they "save" him and don't make the playoffs, as has been pointed out, you leave strasburg ~150 IP, and the likelihood that they don't jump him to 200 IP next season, and the cycle potentially repeats itself next season, because as we've already established, they're being overly cautious with strasburg, whether we agree or disagree with the limit. In march they were far from being considered as having a decent chance to make the playoffs, as I have mentioned over and over that they were expected to finish fourth intheir own division.

Also, in march, as I mentioned previously, Washington wasn't considered as having a Top NL rotation because Gio was not expected by most to perform to this level and there was much speculation that Wsh would come to regret trading for him. Again, this is based on the circumstances at the time, not on what has since transpired.
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