HOOTIE wrote:The Nats won't really be in it. Probably a 83 win team. They just don't have a very good offense.
They won 80 games last season with a lot of issues, and now there is an extra playoff spot. They will have Strasburg for a full season, Zimmerman without an innings cap, and added GG to the rotation. I see Werth having a moderate bounce back, Zimmerman playing in more than 100 games, Adam LaRoche returning from injury, and Ramos is no longer blocked by Pudge. Desmond and Espinosa still have room for some slight growth as well.
I think worst case scenario they are 3 games behind the 5th wildcard spot come the start of September. I'm not folding if that's the case.
Awesome post..just stellar job. You can't post anything better..plus I think LaRoche might hit 3 HR in a game at some point this season
Why don't they just get a house that's already painted?
HOOTIE wrote:The Nats won't really be in it. Probably a 83 win team. They just don't have a very good offense.
They won 80 games last season with a lot of issues, and now there is an extra playoff spot. They will have Strasburg for a full season, Zimmerman without an innings cap, and added GG to the rotation. I see Werth having a moderate bounce back, Zimmerman playing in more than 100 games, Adam LaRoche returning from injury, and Ramos is no longer blocked by Pudge. Desmond and Espinosa still have room for some slight growth as well.
I think worst case scenario they are 3 games behind the 5th wildcard spot come the start of September. I'm not folding if that's the case.
Awesome post..just stellar job. You can't post anything better..plus I think LaRoche might hit 3 HR in a game at some point this season
I'm getting an idea you are being sarcastic... I dont think his post was bad at all. I think the Nationals probably wont be a playoff team, but I certainly think they wont be out of it when september begins. And if you arent out of it, do you really want your best player having an innings cap? That would piss off a lot of fans...
Sakuraba wrote:What happens if the Nationals have the best record in baseball when he reaches his 160 innings Will they still shut him and give up a chance at winning a championship?
This exact question was asked of the manager during MLB Channel's 30 teams in 30 days.
He said that Strasburg is going to pitch 160-170 innings, no matter what. He knows it, and the rest of the team knows it. Regardless of what happens.
He said their research is that the year after TJ that's about the limit you need. They did the exact same thing with Zimmerman.
Strasburg will not pitch 170 innings this year (even if he's healthy - which is a whole other question)
The Nats won 80 games last year by getting hot during garbage time and beating up on September call-ups. Lets not pretend that they were a decent team all year here. It could be a harbinger of things to come but most of the time when this happens the team grows into that 80ish wins the next year, they don't suddenly take the next step. That is a bad offense and a not very good defense and it has a lot of injury potential in the rotation. They might win in the low 80s but there isn't anything there that leads me to believe they will compete for a wild card this year.
What research is there that says 160-170 innings is the cutoff? When has a pitcher gone past that cutoff and experienced problems? This seems like pretty important information to have and I don't see any work that's gone into validating the theory/myth. Maybe all ther GMs are keeping it secret but they all came to the exact same vague conclusion. Or maybe 160 and 170 are Dr. Andrews' and Dr. Yocum's favourite numbers.
Skin Blues wrote:What research is there that says 160-170 innings is the cutoff? When has a pitcher gone past that cutoff and experienced problems? This seems like pretty important information to have and I don't see any work that's gone into validating the theory/myth. Maybe all ther GMs are keeping it secret but they all came to the exact same vague conclusion. Or maybe 160 and 170 are Dr. Andrews' and Dr. Yocum's favourite numbers.
The doctors probably said, "It'd be best to keep him at 80 - 85% of his normal workload" so the brainchildren landed on that based on 200 IP and called it "research"
lastingsgriller wrote:How many wins do you think it takes to get that last wild card? Can't imagine it would be much over 85..
Around 89-90 most seasons. It usually takes 90 to take the normal wild card and there is usually another team just 1 or 2 games away. Someone from the Central will take one of them, the east will beat up on each other and make it tough on all of them.
Skin Blues wrote:What research is there that says 160-170 innings is the cutoff? When has a pitcher gone past that cutoff and experienced problems? This seems like pretty important information to have and I don't see any work that's gone into validating the theory/myth. Maybe all ther GMs are keeping it secret but they all came to the exact same vague conclusion. Or maybe 160 and 170 are Dr. Andrews' and Dr. Yocum's favourite numbers.
It was something that Davey Johnson mentioned to the MLB Tonight crew. Just saying "our research has shown...". So I don't know if it's something publicly available.
But he was adamant that, like Zimmerman, Strasburg is only going 160-170 innings.
As an aside, I don't understand why "innings" is what's really important. Shouldn't it be "pitches" instead of "innings"?
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by lastingsgriller » Sun Apr 01, 2012 2:09 am 
