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Keeper disaster

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Re: Keeper disaster

Postby RedBullVodka » Wed Mar 21, 2012 11:42 am

I think I've just written an essay, to say much the same as Fade did in a sentence. :-D
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Re: Keeper disaster

Postby Third Day » Wed Mar 21, 2012 11:44 am

RedBullVodka wrote:I guess what we're trying to prevent here is a team having five first/second round talents that they've picked up in lower rounds (particularly very late rounds), and those players remaining in those rounds for ever more. Those players, at the moment, are huge bargains, and are the reason why some, if not all of us, are reaching for rookies in the hope of striking gold.

At least with escalation, those players (eventually) reach the rounds they should be drafted in, and then you have to decide whether the value is there in keeping them. For some players that will still take a heck of a long time. For example, for Andrew McCutchen in round 23, it will still take six years of being kept before he reaches even Round 10, and then a further 9 years before he reaches round 1 value! Almost certainly there will be a point in which his career starts to decline, where his value doesn't warrant being kept, but at least with escalation, that might happen before it would if remains a Rd 23 player for ever.

It really effects the early / mid-round players more perhaps. For example, I have Hunter Pence in round 5 - if we had implemented this rule from the start, I would perhaps have not kept him this year, as he would have been a Rd 2 keeper. I think by implementing the rule we would get a greater turn over of these type players, although there would still be an emphasis on trying to strike gold in the later rounds perhaps.

I think it would also help to create more value in those early rounds. At the moment, most players available in the early rounds are being picked way before their true value. I don't think any of the players picked in Rd 1 this year, would be picked in Rd 1 of a re-draft league (perhaps Reyes in a 14 teamer?), and only Reyes and Bruce are even close to having the possibility of returning that value this season. I think escalation should help to put more higher value players back into the draft pot over time (if not completely change this quirk of our system).

Fade's point at how important the keeper's are to dominance in this league is interesting. He has a great set of keepers, yet hasn't so far, been competitive. Perhaps it is because, most of those keepers are from early rounds, and as such, don't represent outstanding value compared with a McCutchen in Round 23 (both that he has helped me much!)?

Or perhaps, it is because having only 5 keepers, means that they are only a small proportion of the 12 hitters / 1400 IP limit team required to win this league, and the rest of the drafted team is equally, if not more important to constructing a winning team?


Well said.
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Re: Keeper disaster

Postby Third Day » Wed Mar 21, 2012 11:45 am

RedBullVodka wrote:I think I've just written an essay, to say much the same as Fade did in a sentence. :-D


Impressive none the less.
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Re: Keeper disaster

Postby Fade2White12 » Wed Mar 21, 2012 11:50 am

RedBullVodka wrote:I think I've just written an essay, to say much the same as Fade did in a sentence. :-D


Much less impressive if it took you the 90 minutes that elapsed between your post and mine. :-b
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Re: Keeper disaster

Postby j24jags » Wed Mar 21, 2012 11:58 am

RedBullVodka wrote:I guess what we're trying to prevent here is a team having five first/second round talents that they've picked up in lower rounds (particularly very late rounds), and those players remaining in those rounds for ever more. Those players, at the moment, are huge bargains, and are the reason why some, if not all of us, are reaching for rookies in the hope of striking gold.

At least with escalation, those players (eventually) reach the rounds they should be drafted in, and then you have to decide whether the value is there in keeping them. For some players that will still take a heck of a long time. For example, for Andrew McCutchen in round 23, it will still take six years of being kept before he reaches even Round 10, and then a further 9 years before he reaches round 1 value! Almost certainly there will be a point in which his career starts to decline, where his value doesn't warrant being kept, but at least with escalation, that might happen before it would if remains a Rd 23 player for ever.

It really effects the early / mid-round players more perhaps. For example, I have Hunter Pence in round 5 - if we had implemented this rule from the start, I would perhaps have not kept him this year, as he would have been a Rd 2 keeper. I think by implementing the rule we would get a greater turn over of these type players, although there would still be an emphasis on trying to strike gold in the later rounds perhaps.

I think it would also help to create more value in those early rounds. At the moment, most players available in the early rounds are being picked way before their true value. I don't think any of the players picked in Rd 1 this year, would be picked in Rd 1 of a re-draft league (perhaps Reyes in a 14 teamer?), and only Reyes and Bruce are even close to having the possibility of returning that value this season. I think escalation should help to put more higher value players back into the draft pot over time (if not completely change this quirk of our system).

Fade's point at how important the keeper's are to dominance in this league is interesting. He has a great set of keepers, yet hasn't so far, been competitive. Perhaps it is because, most of those keepers are from early rounds, and as such, don't represent outstanding value compared with a McCutchen in Round 23 (both that he has helped me much!)?

Or perhaps, it is because having only 5 keepers, means that they are only a small proportion of the 12 hitters / 1400 IP limit team required to win this league, and the rest of the drafted team is equally, if not more important to constructing a winning team?

You bring up great points. 5 Keepers would have significantly more influence if this were a standard 9 hitter/1250 IP league. No matter how good or how bad your keepers are, your draft, trades and WW acquisitions still play a huge role in determining the ultimate outcome of the league.
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Re: Keeper disaster

Postby RedBullVodka » Wed Mar 21, 2012 1:08 pm

Fade2White12 wrote:
RedBullVodka wrote:I think I've just written an essay, to say much the same as Fade did in a sentence. :-D


Much less impressive if it took you the 90 minutes that elapsed between your post and mine. :-b


It took a while, but maybe not 90 mins! I think I started off thinking I was going to add a lot, and then re-read it and realised I'd added much less that I thought I would! :-b

And an errant apostrophe slipped in. :-P And a bloody typo. %-6 Urgh.
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Re: Keeper disaster

Postby RedBullVodka » Wed Mar 21, 2012 1:12 pm

j24jags wrote:You bring up great points. 5 Keepers would have significantly more influence if this were a standard 9 hitter/1250 IP league. No matter how good or how bad your keepers are, your draft, trades and WW acquisitions still play a huge role in determining the ultimate outcome of the league.


I think this is what annoys me most about my three (or is it four?) years in this league. I think this is completely true, which means I have screwed up the draft each and every year. In every other league I've been in, in that time, I've always competed just about. In this one, I haven't. Rubbish! :-[
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Re: Keeper disaster

Postby Third Day » Wed Mar 21, 2012 1:26 pm

RedBullVodka wrote:
j24jags wrote:You bring up great points. 5 Keepers would have significantly more influence if this were a standard 9 hitter/1250 IP league. No matter how good or how bad your keepers are, your draft, trades and WW acquisitions still play a huge role in determining the ultimate outcome of the league.


I think this is what annoys me most about my three (or is it four?) years in this league. I think this is completely true, which means I have screwed up the draft each and every year. In every other league I've been in, in that time, I've always competed just about. In this one, I haven't. Rubbish! :-[


I know it's kind of a lame excuse but this draft takes so long that that 2/3 of the way through I've forgotten my draft strategy or if I even had one.
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Re: Keeper disaster

Postby Fade2White12 » Wed Mar 21, 2012 4:41 pm

I just created a poll. Once we have a majority, we can debate more on exactly how to proceed. It sounds like people are more or less for some sort of round escalation, but I want to make sure that this is the concensus, and not to just keep the current system.

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Re: Keeper disaster

Postby zepfan » Thu Mar 22, 2012 1:31 pm

Fade2White12 wrote:I've been thinking of what the most amicable solution may be, since it can't be changed too radically after being in place for multiple years. I think the simplest solution would be centered around either a maximum number of years a player can be kept or escalating round penalties.

For instance, we could do something like separating the draft into 3 tiers - 1-10, 11-20, 21-26. The penalty for each tier would be different until the player falls within the tier beneath. Players drafted in rounds 1-10 could increase 1 round per year, those 11-20 would increase 2, and those 21-26 would increase 3. It still rewards those who draft well in the later rounds because even with a sliding scale, they'll be at a value for many years down the line, while also helping to remedy the more obscene current keepers. :-D


I like this suggestion but I'm good with whatever everyone else decides.

I think the difference between (for example) a 12th round pick and a 20th round pick in this league is less than in other leagues because the vast majority of the good players have already been kept and the later you get into the draft, the less difference there is in the quality of the players. For whatever that's worth, hopefully that made sense.

Also the first page of and half of this thread is funny. :-b
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