Early rounds of keeper draft - best hitter or SP?

[bayside]

Need some help on an early round strategy for my next keeper draft.
fairly shallow 10 H2H team league, with 40 keepers off the board.

This league is a little different as it only allows 7 SP max on a roster at any given time (meaning pitchers who actually currently start this yr, regardless of what eligibilty Yahoo gives them), so the perception is that top end SP is more valuable than normal.
1 UTILITY slot, 9 starting hitters total.
6x6
we count Hits and OBP, not average.
added QS to pitching.

We keep any 4 without draft/round penalties, Im keeping
Ellsbury, Cargo, Granderson, Kinsler

i have the last pick in a snake, so 10th overall pick, do not have a 2nd round pick, then i have the #30 and #31 picks in rounds 3/4.

Best players available are (for my team):
SP - weaver, greinke, price, lester, madbum, moore, latos, darvish
OF - stanton
1B - konerko, morse
3b/ss - castro, lawrie, zimmerman, Arod, beltre, andrus

with my first pick do i take the best player regardless of position?
1) ie if Stanton is still there do i grab him no questions asked even tho i already have my OF set (lock him into UT)? then target 2 of Lester/Moore/Latos/Bum back to back with my #30/31?
2) Or should I target a SP with my first pick no matter what?

right now im thinking my preference with that #10 pick is:
Stanton, Castro, Weaver, Greinke, Lawrie, Zimmerman, Konerko, Arod, Price, Lester.
And then with my next 2 picks -
grab 2 SP if i drafted a bat first,
or take 1 SP and the best 1B/3B/SS available with the other pick if I had drafted a SP with my first pick.

but maybe there are flaws with this strategy that im not seeing?

thanks for any advice, leave me a link and ill be happy to to help you out

[MashinSpuds]

Well, pitching is deep, so you should be able to find pitchers everywhere. However, you've got two issues by going batter first: a) you've already got 4 batters out of 9 and b) you don't have a second round pick. If you had a second round pick I could see waiting on the turn to get a pitcher, but I think by the time your third pick rolls around you're going to be staring at the mid-tier guys that are risky as keepers.

I say pick one of Weaver, Greinke, Price, Lester, Madbum, and Moore for your first pick. If none of those guys make it to you, go with Stanton or Lawrie if they are somehow there. I doubt it, though, so you're likely to get one of those pitchers.

[bayside]

Do you think all the pitchers you listed will be gone in the first 29 picks of the draft, before I get my 2nd/3rd picks?
9 of the top pitchers are being kept fwiw.
Or would you rather not take the chance, and just take the best available SP first and then worry about everything else later?

[MashinSpuds]

If pitching is as highly sought after as you mentioned, then I would definitely think that the ones I posted about will be gone by the time your third round pick comes. Darvish might make it to you, and though I think Latos will pitch well this season he could make it to you as well. They both have their risks, though, so you would be gambling on your top SP if you waited that long.

[bayside]

Thanks for the advice Mashin,
Ya not sure taking that risk would be wise... but it'd just be so hard to pass on a Stanton or Lawrie who are potential top 10 players.

anyone else care to commnet? all opinions welcome

[HOOTIE]

I'm not passing on Stanton, Lawrie, Zimmerman, Beltre,

[bayside]

Ya, I actually have Lawrie the highest on my overall rankings after Stanton. Im pretty high on him and feel like he is one of a handful of players available (along with Stanton) who has a legit shot to return top 10 value, and could be a no brain keeper for years. Not sure why I listed him behind those other guys.

As far as Castro goes, i only have him in the discussion because the league counts hits - hes very likely to lead the NL in that regard.
But his OBP is only average, (although I do expext his BB% to increase some) so maybe his overall value doesnt change.

Zimmerman is pretty awesome too, but Im a little leary after last year, perhaps unjustly so.

Beltre is a player I dont like as much as anyone else in the discussion. He gets hurt every year and I feel like Arod still has the skill set to produce better per game numbers than him. He has more power and better plate discipline - although probably a little more injury risk, but not much imo.